Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions

Total U.S. energy-related CO₂ emissions do not return to their 2005 level (5,997 million metric tons) by the end of the AEO2013 projection period.⁶ Growth in demand for transportation fuels is moderated by rising fuel prices and new, stricter federal CAFE standards for model years 2017 to 2025, which reduce transportation emissions from 2018 until they begin to rise near the end of the projection period. Transportation emissions in 2040 are 26 million metric tons below the 2011 level. Largely as a result of the inclusion of the new CAFE standards in AEO2013, transportation-related CO₂ emissions in 2035 are 94 million metric tons below their level in the AEO2012 Reference case.

State RPS requirements and abundant low-cost natural gas help shift the fuel mix for electricity generation away from coal and reduce emissions in both the residential and commercial sectors from the levels in AEO2012. Growth in residential sector emissions is flat over the projection period, and commercial sector emissions rise only slightly, by 0.3 percent annually.

Only industrial energy-related CO₂ emissions are higher in AEO2013 as compared to AEO2012. While industrial coal emissions in AEO2013 are 48 million metric tons lower than in AEO2012 by 2035, natural gas emissions from the industrial sector are 67 million metric tons higher by 2035, and electricity-related emissions allocated to the industrial sector are 77 million metric tons higher. With emissions from petroleum slightly lower, the net result is that industrial sector emissions are 80 million metric tons higher in the AEO2013 Reference case than in AEO2012. Over the projection period from 2011 to 2040, industrial emissions grow at a rate of 0.3 percent annually.

figure dataThe projected growth rate for U.S. energy-related CO₂ emissions has declined successively in each Annual Energy Outlook since AEO2005 (see Figure 13, which shows projections starting with AEO2009), reflecting both market and policy drivers. Using 2030 as a common year, the AEO2006 projection for total energy-related CO₂ emissions was 8,114 million metric tons, with coal accounting for 3,226 million metric tons (40 percent) and natural gas 1,452 million metric tons (18 percent). In AEO2010, total energy-related CO₂ emissions had dropped to 6,176 million metric tons in 2030, with 2,296 million metric tons (37 percent) coming from coal and 1,315 million metric tons (21 percent) from natural gas. In AEO2013, the 2030 values have fallen to 5,523 million metric tons for total energy-related CO₂ emissions, with 1,874 million metric tons (34 percent) coming from coal and 1,468 metric tons (27 percent) from natural gas. The change reflects both market and policy factors, including the adoption of tighter economy fuel standards, the implementation of efficiency standards, and a continued shift to less carbon-intensive fuels.

Footnotes

⁶ The year 2005 is the base year for the Obama Administration's goal for emission reductions of 17 percent by 2020. In 2020, energy-related CO₂ emissions in the AEO2013 Reference case are 9 percent below their 2005 level.