SPC AC 160500
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATE FRI
EVENING WILL ENTER THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE LOWER OH/MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC
BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GULF STREAM. OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SAT MORNING INDICATE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ABOVE A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...AS THE BASAL
PORTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES OVER GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON...COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -30C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 100 J/KG. THIS MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING PEAK
HEATING. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
ATLANTIC.
..GARNER.. 02/16/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z