FXAK67 PAJK 141508
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 AM AKST THU FEB 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
GULF. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO BE
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WEATHER FRONT
WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND IT WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH WINDS
GUSTS IN SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING BECOME MORE STEADY AND
INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES. THE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL INCREASE
TO GALES WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONG SW CROSS BARRIER FLOW TO INDUCE A LEE SIDE TROF. THE REST
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH GULF COAST WITH SEE HIGH GUSTS TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A DEVELOPING WAVE THAT WILL ROLL UP THE FRONT AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TO STRONG
WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS FROM SOUTHERN BARANOF AND
KUIU ISLAND. THE MARINE WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
LYNN CANAL ALONG WITH OTHER WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE SOUTHERN AREA
MARINE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT TO GALES NEAR CLARENCE
STRAIT AND SMALL CRAFT FROM FREDRICK SOUND SOUTHWARD. 

 AS THE DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS INTO THE SE GULF THE PRECIP WILL
TAPPER OF SOME OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE EVENING BUT IT WILL
INCREASE OVER NIGHT AS THE NEXT WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH. THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.  

 OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AND USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WITH ABOUT AVERAGE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. 
.LONG TERM...THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARM AND COLD AIR CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH SIDES LAUNCHING INVASIONS
INTO THE AREA OF VARYING STRENGTHS. THE WARM AIR IS STILL WINNING
THE WAR WITH SW TO W FLOW BEING THE PREDOMINATE PATTERN. MEANWHILE
THE COLD AIR IS BEING BOTTLED UP IN NORTHERN ALASKA AND SIBERIA
WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOTS OF COOLER AIR PASSING THROUGH THE
BERING AND ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE AREA.

 BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS A WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER AIMED AT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLENTY WARM THAT PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. HOWEVER 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH OR
MORE IN SOME AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRI.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE UP WITH THIS FRONT. HYDABURG AND KETCHIKAN
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID DAY FRI.
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO BE BLOWING WITH GALES CONTINUING THOUGH
MID DAY FRI. WINDS AND RAIN WILL CALM DOWN FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. 

 THINGS START DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF. THE LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL BE AROUND
THE AREA WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW ON SAT AS A HEAVILY MARINE
INFLUENCED COLD AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS THERE ISN'T MUCH
REMAINING MOISTURE LEFT IN THE AREA BY SAT. 

 THE WARM AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE AND BRINGS S TO SE FLOW AGAIN. MON AND MON
NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE WET AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, BUT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW COMPARED TO THE RESENT
SYSTEMS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO
STARTING TO DIVERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL KEEP THE GENERAL
IDEA FOR THE MOST PART SO FORECAST DETAILS GET A BIT SKETCHY BY
THIS POINT. 

 OVERALL MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY WENT TOWARD A ECMWF/NAM APPROACH THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN
SWITCHED TO A MORE HPC SOLUTIONS FOR THE LATER PERIODS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. 

 
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041-051-052. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031>035-042-043. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053. 

&&

$$

ABJ/EAL