SPC AC 150739
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH...OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY SUNDAY...WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE...A
SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WITHIN A BRANCH OF FLOW
EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ONE DIGGING ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
AT LEAST SOME PHASING OF THE LEAD IMPULSE WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC MAY COMMENCE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE
PRECEDED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... WITH GUIDANCE
GENERALLY INDICATING A 50-60+ KT 850 MB JET BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SEVERAL PRECEDING DAYS OF DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO... SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. AS A RESULT... GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..KERR.. 02/15/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z