Products Last Updated 2013 FEB 17 12UTC |
|||
---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression / Tropical Storm | Hurricane |
- TC FORMATION AREAS OF INTEREST:
- Identifies regions of relatively-enhanced summation TC formation probability (see below). To dinstinguish between TC formation and non-formation cases, uses nearby TC formation (see below). Hence, provides a broad-scale "first guess" at areas with the potential for TC formation. The threshold summation probability values that define each potential category were chosen so that 100%/75%/25%/5% of dependent sample set cases meet or exceed the threshold values. Basins were treated independently, so corresponding dependent sample set occurrence frequencies may vary by basin.
TC Formation Area of Interest Category |
Occurrence Frequency (ATLC / EPAC / WPAC) |
Dependent Cases Included |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Possible (Blue) | 4% | 7% | 5% | 75% | |
Fair (Orange) | 10% | 26% | 12% | 25% | |
Good (Red) | 20% | 46% | 18% | 5% |
- Nearby TC Formation
- Describes TC formation that occurs within 20° of a given point. This is less stringent than the 5° criterion used by the main TC Formation Probability product.
- Summation TC Formation Probability
- The sum of the TC formation probabilities at all grid points within a 20° lat by 20° lon subregion centered on that point.
- Occurrence Frequency
- For all points exceeding a given summation probabilty threshold, the percent of those cases that resulted in a "nearby" TC formation (as defined above).