Article Alert January 2013
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Article Alert is a monthly service featuring some of the most interesting journal literature on relations concerning the U.S. and Europe. It is published every month except for August.
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Why the World Should Worry About Europe’s Disarray. Jan Zielonka, Current History, January 2013, var. pages. "The European Union has always received mixed reviews. Supporters of European integration have seen the EU as one of the most exciting political experiments in world history, transforming the nature of power politics and generating innovative, energy-efficient, and socially sensitive economic growth. Critics of European integration have seen the EU as bureaucratic, undemocratic, protectionist, and inefficient. Both groups are right to some extent. The EU has indeed managed to transform relations among European states. War is no longer a conceivable option for sorting out their differences. Sharing sovereignty, once unthinkable, has become a common practice in numerous fields. Despite the current financial crisis, European societies are remarkably affluent and relatively equal. They also endeavor to be environmentally friendly. The EU has contributed to these achievements through the common market project, cohesion funds to promote development in less-affluent member states, an enlargement policy, and many other measures." READ MORE
The Spider in Europe’s Web? French Grand Strategy From Iraq to Libya. Luis Simón, Geopolitics, pp. 1-32. "This article examines the relationship between geopolitical change and the evolution of French grand strategy from Iraq to Libya. While the European Union (EU) and the bilateral relationship with Germany continue to feature high in French grand strategy, France has in the space of just a few years substantially strengthened its Atlantic connection (with the US, Britain and NATO) and upgraded its relationship with other European powers – particularly Russia. It is argued that the driving reason behind this diversifying trend is the weakening of the US-led West, both globally and in Europe. If US military power laid the foundations of order in and around Europe, America's shift of geostrategic attention eastwards is underpinning a political destructuring of Europe and its broader neighbourhood. For one thing, Europe is moving towards a more multipolar balance, as evidenced by Russia's resurgence in the east and southeast, Turkey's drifting from the EU and growing influence in the continent's southeast and, crucially, Germany's increasing influence over the direction of the EU. For another, France's so-called axis of strategic priority (Northern Africa, the Sahel, Levant, Horn of Africa/Red Sea and the Gulf) is characterised by mounting instability and increasing penetration by external powers. Against this backdrop, the special relationship with Germany and the EU are insufficient to guarantee French influence in Europe, the stability of Europe's broader neighbourhood or France's aspirations to global power. In an increasingly uncertain global and regional environment, France is seeking to reconcile a deeper politico-military relationship with Britain (and the United States), a special relationship with Germany in the politico-economic sphere and strong ties with Russia, thereby positioning itself as a sort of spider in an increasingly multipolar European geopolitical web." READ MORE
The EU, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Leslie S. Lebl. Orbis, Winter 2013, pp. 101-119. "The European Union (EU), the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) are locked in a struggle for the future of Europe that encompasses very different visions. The EU aims for a highly sophisticated Western civilization; the Brotherhood and OIC see Europe as part of a future global Caliphate, an Islamic empire governed by an Islamist version of traditional Islamic law, or sharia. This competition extends to the United Nations where the OIC is seeking to enforce global prohibitions on criticism of Islam. A comparison of the EU's actions with those of the U.S. federal government shows that U.S. policymakers, in confronting a similar challenge, are making many of the same errors as their European counterparts." READ MORE
The Context and Precedent for Joint European Bonds. Lauren M. Phillips. SAIS Review, Summer-Fall Review, pp. 33-40. While there has been much speculation amongst academics, journalists, and policymakers about the potential benefits of pooling European debt into so-called “Eurobonds,” there has been relatively little examination to date of the context or precedent of joint sovereign borrowing. Drawing on existing political economy theories of sovereign debt and several examples, this article argues that enhancing debt commitments through alliances and guarantees is an alternative and highly effective way to generate credibility. In fact, the rapid and dramatic convergence of Eurozone sovereign borrowing rates to those akin to Germany at the outset of the euro project is a prime example of the market assuming a higher level of financial support than existed in practice (as is evident from the equally rapid divergence of sovereign bond spreads in the past two years, once it became clear that bailouts and mutualization of debt would not be automatic). In this context, the article analyzes the bonds issued in 2011 through the European Financial Stability Mechanism to finance the support packages for Ireland and Portugal. The objective is to determine how these bonds are being priced and traded by market participants in order to help gauge the potential impact and success of future European joint sovereign bonds. READ MORE
Partners in Crisis: EU Strategic Partnerships and the Global Economic Downturn. Giovanni Grevi and Thomas Renard (eds.). ESPO (Fride - Egmont), November 2012, var. pp. This report looks at EU partnerships with Brazil, China, India and the US and finds that bilateral relations struggle to engender convergence at the global level on macroeconomic issues. READ MORE
The Fall and Rise of the West. Roger C. Altman, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb2013, var. pages. "The 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed have had devastating effects on the U.S. economy and millions of American lives. But the U.S. economy will emerge from its trauma stronger and widely restructured. Europe should eventually experience a similar strengthening, although its future is less certain and its recovery will take longer to develop. The United States is much further along because its financial crisis struck three years before Europe's, in 2008, causing headwinds that have pressured it ever since. It will take another two to three years for these to subside, but after that, U.S. economic growth should outperform expectations. In contrast, Europe is still in the midst of its financial crisis. If historical logic prevails there, it will take four to six years for strong European growth to materialize." READ MORE
Can America “Lose” in the Globalization Game? Rob Asghar, SAIS Review, Summer-Fall 2012, pp. 3-15. "This essay argues that the narrative of American decline reflects an overreliance on evanescent economic trends and on a lack of appreciation for the cultural factors that nurture the processes of globalization and innovation. Despite political dysfunctions, the United States has demographic and cultural assets that are uniquely suited to these processes. Meanwhile, challengers such as China and India must navigate even more serious political, economic, demographic and environmental challenges—and even if they do so successfully, they may face cultural backlashes within societies that are ambivalent about their future direction. Globalization may well be a pernicious process, one that bleeds the planet’s resources; yet as long as it represents the main arena of international competition and collaboration, the author suggests that reports of American decline may be as premature today as they were in numerous other moments over the past half-century." READ MORE
What’s Inside America’s Banks? Frank Partnoy and Jesse Eisinger, The Atlantic Magazine, January/February 2013, var. pages. "Some four years after the 2008 financial crisis, public trust in banks is as low as ever. Sophisticated investors describe big banks as “black boxes” that may still be concealing enormous risks—the sort that could again take down the economy. A close investigation of a supposedly conservative bank’s financial records uncovers the reason for these fears—and points the way toward urgent reforms." READ MORE
Climate Change and Food Security. Bruce A. McCarl, Mario A. Fernandez, Jason P. H. Jones, Marta Wlodarz. Curren History, January 2013, var. pp. Of the 10 warmest years in recorded history, 9 have appeared in the past 10 years, and all since 1998. Furthermore, 2012, the 9th-warmest year in history, was the 36th year in a row above the twentieth century average. Simultaneously, precipitation patterns are changing, with rainfall generally becoming more concentrated. Not surprisingly, the effects on agriculture from such climate change are proving significant and worldwide, including in the United States. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated, for instance, that climate change made a 2011 drought in the American Southwest 20 times more likely to occur. At the same time, the role of agriculture, a sector highly vulnerable to climate change, is changing globally. Not only does farming remain vital for food and fiber supplies; it is also growing in importance as a source of feedstock for energy production. It is frequently mentioned, too, as a possible source of offsets to the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. READ MORE
Cursed With Plenty. David Rothkopf, Foreign Policy, January/February 2013, var. pp. America is on the verge of an energy boom. But will abundant shale gas create more problems than it fixes? READ MORE
Look East, Act East: Transatlantic Agendas in the Asia Pacific. Patryk Pawlak (ed.), EUISS, December 2012, var. pp. The Look East, Act East report explores possible avenues for closer cooperation between the EU and the US in the wider region. Is it possible to think (and act) ‘transatlantic’ in the Asia Pacific? Are there concrete opportunities to ‘square the triangle’, so to speak, rather than move separately and work at cross-purposes, especially in times of economic crisis and stagnation? This publication offers facts, figures, maps and ideas to better understand regional dynamics and identify common interests and shared platforms. READ MORE
Don’t Come Home, America. The Case against Retrenchment. Stephen G. Brooks, G. John Ikenberry, and William C. Wohlforth International Security, Winter 2012/13, pp. 7–51. Confronting a punishing budget crisis, an exhausted military, balky allies, and a public whose appetite for global engagement is waning, the United States faces a critical question. After sixty-ªve years of pursuing a globally engaged grand strategy—nearly a third of which transpired without a peer great power rival—has the time ªnally come for retrenchment? According to many of the most prominent security studies scholars—and indeed most scholars who write on the future of U.S. grand strategy—the answer is an unambiguous yes. Even as U.S. political leaders almost uniformly assert their commitment to global leadership, over the past decade a very different opinion has swept through the academy: that the United States should scale back its global commitments and pursue retrenchment. More speciªcally, it should curtail or eliminate its overseas military presence, eliminate or dramatically reduce its global security commitments, and minimize or eschew its efforts to foster and lead the liberal institutional order. READ MORE
Obama's Long-Term Legacy Will Be Determined Abroad. Michael Hirsch, The National Journal, December 2012, var. pages. "If the president wants to leave a lasting imprint beyond health care reform, he’ll almost certainly have to find it through foreign policy." READ MORE
Forward Partnership: A Sustainable American Strategy. F.G. Hoffman, Orbis, Winter 2013, pp.20-40. "Many commentators now contend that America's power is in relative or absolute decline. However, Declinists overstate their argument, as America has both a commanding amount of residual power and many enduring strengths. Decline, absolute or relative, is not predetermined. However, retaining our influence and preserving our ability to protect and advance U.S. interests does require addressing key shortfalls in strategic priorities to ensure synergies among the components of U.S. national power. A variety of strategies— particularly Offshore Balancing— have been offered to better balance ends, ways and means. These alternatives suffer from policy, historical and implementation challenges. A hybrid solution, Forward Partnering, avoids these deficiencies and is presented as an alternative grand strategy." READ MORE
A New U.S. Grand Strategy. Patrick Doherty, Foreign Policy, Jan. 9, 2013, var. pages. “The strategic landscape of the 21st century has finally come into focus. The great global project is no longer to stop communism, counter terrorists, or promote a superficial notion of freedom. Rather, the world must accommodate 3 billion additional middle-class aspirants in two short decades -- without provoking resource wars, insurgencies, and the devastation of our planet's ecosystem. For this we need a strategy. Why walkable communities, sustainable economics, and multilateral diplomacy are the future of American power.” READ MORE
Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations. James K. Sebenius, International Security, Winter 2012/13, pp. 52-91. “Varied diplomatic approaches by multiple negotiators over the past several years have failed to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran. Mutual hostility, misperception, and flawed diplomacy may be responsible. Yet, more fundamentally, no mutually acceptable deal may exist. To assess this possibility, a “negotiation analytic” framework conceptually disentangles two issues: (1) whether a feasible deal exists; and (2) how to design the most promising process to achieve one. Focusing on whether a “zone of possible agreement” exists, a graphical negotiation analysis precisely relates input assumptions about the parties' interests, their no-deal options, and possible deals. Under a plausible, mainstream set of such assumptions, the Iranian regime's no-deal options, at least through the fall of 2012, appear superior to potential nuclear agreements. If so, purely tactical and process-oriented initiatives will fail. Opening space for a mutually acceptable nuclear deal—one that avoids both military conflict and a nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable Iran—requires relentlessly and creatively worsening Iran's no-deal options while enhancing the value of a deal to the Iranian regime. Downplaying both coercive options and upside potential, as international negotiators have often done, works against this integrated strategy. If this approach opens a zone of possible agreement, sophisticated negotiation will be key to reaching a worthwhile agreement.” READ MORE
NATO's dealing with a different Gulf now. Jean Loup Samaan, NATO Review, December 2012, var. pages. "What does the Arab Spring mean for NATO? Jean Loup Samaan looks at whether the Alliance needs to change its approach to Arab countries post-Arab Spring, how these changes could look and how to overcome obstacles." READ MORE
The Future of the Arab Spring: Best-Case Scenario, Worst-Case Scenario. Amir Taheri, American Foreign Policy Interests, November 1, 2012, pp. 302-308. “Over the past two years, a good chunk of the Arab world has witnessed dramatic changes that have inspired both hope and concern. The hope is that the nations of the Mideast would now be able to take the path to democratization. The concern is that they might be seduced by the radical Islamist discourse most pronounced in Iran and its regional allies. At the same time, the specter of sectarian war is looming large.” READ MORE
Thinking Long on Afghanistan: Could it be Neutralized? Audrey Kurth Cronin, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2013, pp. 55-72. “Having crushed the al-/Qaeda leadership, the United States and its NATO allies should exit Afghanistan without leaving behind the kind of instability that prompted their intervention in the first place. No other sub-/region of the world contains such a dangerous intersection of radical ideologies, clashing interests, and regional nuclear arsenals. Further proliferation, lucrative drug corridors, and exploitable mineral wealth will make future Afghan conflicts more dangerous than ever." READ MORE
"No Exit" Strategy", Fen Osler Hampson and Tod Lindberg, Policy Review, December 2012, var. pp. Recalibrating missions, scaling back ambitions, sticking around. Exit strategies are back in vogue. The Afghanistan campaign has not gone terribly well in the past several years and a deadline — of sorts — for withdrawal has been set for the mission in 2014. In the case of Iraq, the Obama administration declared that the combat mission was over following the successful “surge” strategy and removed U.S. troops by the end of 2011. These “exit strategy” deadlines were set against a background of continuing political instability and violence in both countries. READ MORE