Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 14, 2013
Updated: Thu Feb 14 21:47:03 UTC 2013 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142145
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013
VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT ACROSS SRN CA WILL BE
WINDING DOWN ON D3/SAT WHILE COOL AND VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SRN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS FROM D5/MON THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
...D3/SAT - D4/SUN: CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ON D3/SAT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-40
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...CREATING
ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE WINDS...THOUGH COOL TEMPS AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER THE
THREAT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON D4/SUN AS PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.5
INCHES...WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 35 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER
COMPARED TO D3/SAT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL STILL
CREATE A THREAT OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
AGAIN...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER THE
THREAT.
...D3/SAT: SRN CA INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN ON D3/SAT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE CRITICAL
WIND/RH THRESHOLDS MAY BE APPROACHED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE THREAT AND NO AREA WILL BE OUTLOOKED AT THIS
TIME.
...D4/SUN - D5/MON: SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS
ON D4/SUN-D5/MON. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ON D4/SUN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
INCREASING DRY SWLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONCURRENT
CRITICAL WIND/RH...WITH THE DRIEST RH LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER ERN NM
INTO W TX WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST
INTO NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON D5/MON...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR MOST OF ERN NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE...BUT STRONG WLY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SERN NM INTO W TX.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS AND THE FRONTAL POSITION AT
THIS TIME RANGE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CRITICAL AREA.
...D7/WED: MUCH OF NM INTO FAR W TX...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE D4-D5
RANGE...A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVE INTO THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION BY D7/WED. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO FAR W TX. THE WEATHER PATTERN
DEPICTED BY NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SERN
HALF OF NM INTO FAR W TX...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS CAN RISE INTO THE 60S. STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT WITH LINGERING QUESTIONS
REGARDING POTENTIALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND FUELS...ALONG WITH
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
LOWER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...D8/THU: SERN NM/W TX INTO SRN PLAINS...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG WLY
SFC WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FROM SERN NM/W TX INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. THE RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SYSTEM CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD QUICKLY WRAP COLD AIR AROUND THE SFC LOW AND
WOULD RESULT IN RATHER COOL CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE INHERENT
PREDICTABILITY LIMIT AT THIS FORECAST RANGE...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO
CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 02/14/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
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