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Displaying all posts for October 2010 | << View All Posts

COL Promotion List

Written by MG David A. Rubenstein on 12-Oct-2010 | 24 Comments
 
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Howdy, All:

I trust this posting finds you all well and enjoying the weather changes, wherever you are.

The Colonel promotion list was recently released and 31 of our MSC LTCs were selected for promotion to COL. Hooah.

This message is in reply to a number of emails, calls, and conversations I’ve had as a result of the release. The communications I’ve had center on two things: the selection rate and the number of excellent MSC LTCs who were not selected for promotion. Some of you also wonder what that means for the future.

First, why did we select only 31 LTCs for promotion? Well, it’s all in the numbers. The MSC has an objective force model (an allowance) of 217 Colonels. We have 219 in the inventory. Of the 219, we have 18 known losses. And we’re still promoting off the 2009 promotion list. When it’s all said and done, we went into the board with more COLs than we are authorized. So we were limited to selecting only 31 LTCs.

Second, why was the primary selection rate so low? Let’s start with a definition. The Defense Officer Personnel Management Act (DOPMA) is the law that guides our promotion system. DOPMA calls for a goal of 50% selection opportunity rate (SOR) to COL (and, BTW, 80% to MAJ and 70% to LTC). SOR is defined as all officers selected for promotion divided by the number of officers in the primary zone. So, our focus needs to be on SOR, not on the percent of primary zone officers selected for promotion.

Our SOR for this board was 41.9%: the number of above the zone and primary zone MSCs selected (31) divided by the number of MSCs in the primary zone (74). We were driven to a low SOR because we are excess COLs and were only allowed to select 31 LTCs this year.

Third, I’ve heard that “non-selected LTC X is way better than selected LTC Y. What’s up?” Sometimes it’s impossible to figure out why one MSC is selected and another is not. That said, we do have to consider the needs of the Army.

Let’s say the board is required to select two LTCs in AOC R. If, after voting the records, there are 2 LTCs with AOC R in the top 31 (best qualified) . . . Hooah. If there are not, the board has to dip below number 31 and find the 1 or 2 LTCs it needs. Let’s say there are 2 AOC R officers, 1 at number 43 and 1 at number 118 (both fully qualified). In this example those 2 LTCs will be brought up to number 30 and 31 and the 2 LTCs at number 30 and 31 will drop to number 32 and 33. Yes, in this example the two bumped LTCs will have gone from selected for promotion to not selected for promotion.

Why do we let this happen? The Army establishes AOCs because there is a need for that specialty in uniform. Based on the needs of the Army, some AOCs, large and small, will be under strength in COLs. When that happens the promotion board is required to pick fully, though not initially best, qualified LTCs to fill the shortage. That happened this time, in AOCs both large and small.

Fourth, is this a trend? I don’t know. I do know that during my 33 years in uniform promotions have gone in cycles. 15-20 years ago we ignored the numbers and got in trouble. Promotions were so slow we actually had three years of promotion lists stacked up. The good news was that you were selected for promotion. The bad news was you might actually retire before being promoted. We’re not going to go back to those days.

The message remains the same. Know why you’re in the Army. Know what you want to accomplish before leaving. Talk with a mentor about the best way to get to where you want to go. And let selection boards take care of themselves. I know, I know . . . some will say that’s easy for me to say. But it’s not. I was the president of this board and knew closely and personally many of the LTCs who were not selected. But, really, it is the best advice.

I’m worried that we MSC senior leaders have not done all we should in teaching each generation of MSC Soldiers about the promotion system. I’ll be working with our COLs and LTC(P)s to fix that. For example, our company grade Soldiers should be asking their senior MSCs to host a mock promotion board.

With all the above said and done, what concerns do you have that I may address?

Army Medicine,
Army Strong!
dar
 

Comments For This Post

MAJ Clif McCready  on 01-Dec-2010
Sir, Do you speculate that the FY11 LTC AMEDD Promotion Board instructions will reflect a Requirements number of 0 and a Goals number of 5 for 67J Aeromedical Evacuation like last year? Will 67J officers only compete in their primary AOC or will they be looked at in their secondary AOC as well? If not, why? This did not occur during the FY 09 and FY10 LTC AMEDD promotion boards. Lastly, will there be a cap for the 67J AOC on the next LTC AMEDD promotion board? Currently there are 4 Majors in the Above the Zone, 8 in the Primary Zone and 6 in the Below the Zone populations that need to know these answers. COL Mitchell and MEPD are doing an excellent job from Fort Rucker but I feel that 67J community needs to hear the answers to these questions from the Branch Chief. Thank you very much for your time. /r MAJ Clif McCready

LTC Mark Swofford  on 23-Nov-2010
Sir - Thanks for addressing this topic - there is a lot of good information in this string.

I would like to make a comment / ask a question that specifically addresses COL Reeder's comment reference the promotion board instructions, composition, etc...

Several years ago, promotion board results used to be sent out to each post in hard copy, and a full copy of the board report was put in a public place (outside the S1 office or in the cafeteria at a MEDDAC) for all to see. Now that everything is electronic it seems impossible to get your hands on the full set of board results including the board composition, instructions to the board, select list, and non-select list.

COL Reeder suggests that the senior 70E on each post make these documents available. I think that would be great. However, it would be even better if the full set of board documents for each AMEDD board were posted to the MSC home page or the MSC branch page. Is there any reason why this cannot be done? It is my understanding that these are public records, so why is it so hard to get these documents?

I think making these documents readily available to all would help restore faith in the process. Increased transparency helps to halt rumors and wild speculation by the uninformed. Just my two cents.

LTC Swofford

Dr. Nick Coppola  on 10-Nov-2010
Gen Rubenstein (and MSC's),

I worked at (then) PERSCOM for two years before I retired. I concur 100% that promotion boards can sometiems result in unexpected findings. However, in addition to a long and sustained career history of ACOM reports, officer’s sometimes forget the effect of a "good" military photo and its impact on promotion board scores.

A study I did while at PERSCOM on the impact of the photo on promotion board score was published in "Military Psychology" in 2004.

Here is an abstract of the study:

******* Abstract The purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of the Department of the Army Photograph (DA Photo) to Army promotion and selection boards. One hundred and eighty-four officers, representing 7 different geographical locations, were placed in blind test groups to discern the effect of a "good" and "bad" DA Photo in a mock military promotion board. The significant finding was that a DA Photo judged to be good by a panel of Army Personnel Command Officers did not predict an increase or decrease in a promotion board score; however, a DA Photo judged to be bad by the same panel of officers can be a predictor of a decrease in overall promotion board score. ******

For several years, a copy of the article was on the MSC website. I'm happy to make it available again to anyone who would like to see it.

Coppola, M. Nicholas & Urvashi Patel. "An Analysis of the Department of the Army Photograph and its Impact on Army Promotion Board Scores." Journal of Military Psychology, (2004) Vol 15, No, 2, pp. 153-162.

Continued thanks everyone’s service to our country!

Dr. Nick Coppola Texas tech University Health Sciences Center & ACHE Regent, West Texas

LTC Dan Kral  on 26-Oct-2010
Sir,

Thank you for the MSC update brief yesterday afternoon. Following the board release I was having a difficult time understanding why we would place a ceiling on certain AOCs and prevent those officers from competing at large. I appreciate your explanation of that process and why it exists.

V/R

LTC Kral

MG Rubenstein  on 21-Oct-2010
Hooah, thanks, LTC Balough.

HRC rules prevent the release of by-AOC goals before a board. The reason is that releasing the numbers happens too late to be useful to the field and because the numbers could change at the last minute.

Much more useful is to be familiar with the histogram for the AOC of interest. The histogram is available at our MSC website. It tells you how many MSC Soldiers are modeled in that AOC for each year group and how many are in the inventory for each year group.

To your other comment, the floors and ceilings are readily available to each Soldier when the list is released. The numbers are in the board memo of instructions and the MOI is released with the list. You'll find the MOI at our website.

Thank you for your questions and comments...keep 'em coming...dar

CPT Mahealani McFarland  on 21-Oct-2010
Sir, Thank you for visiting and speaking with the MSC’s at Fort Eustis last week, I gained a lot of helpful information that I was not aware of before. I also truly appreciate you taking the time to talk to us about your experiences, the board process and also bringing focus on mentorship. In my opinion mentorship is an essential part of the officers growth, the sharing of lesson learned and assistance in guiding the officer in the right direction so that they are successful in their careers is vital.

V/R CPT McFarland

MAJ Anne Sterling  on 21-Oct-2010
Sir, Thank you for addressing this issue.

I want to address the issue of inventory. For many (most) officers, COL is the terminal rank for those that reach it, and from there can remain at that rank for the duration of a 30 year career. I have the privelge to work with many COLs that are shaping, mentoring, commanding and leading with excellence, and I value the guidance and leadership they provide. However, to be quite blunt, it is obvious that there are COLs out there that are content to serve in the same positions that they have served in before and mark time till they hit 30 years. If that is what the Army needs, then hooah, but IS that truly meeting the needs of the Army? If the question has been asked and answered, that's fine, this is just a thought that came to me while looking at a funky histogram with a pile of O6s at the end. If not, and this is a trend that continues as the oportunities on the outside remain less entincing than the ones inside, and an eventual slow of the war machine allows one and all to take a collective breath, it could begin to bottle up the LTC promotions as well if there is no outlet at the end of that pool. I could quite possibly be putting my cart before the horse. This is what I do know. The leaders that I have are top-notch, the opportunities are fantastic, and I LOVE that I get to serve soldiers and family members every day. Which makes me think, why WOULD anyone want to leave? I certainly plan on staying. Thank you, sir.

MAJ T.W. Sherbert  on 20-Oct-2010
MG Rubenstein, Thank you for the time spent explaining the process. I think it is an important point to remember: figure out what you want to do in your career and the rest will take care of itself. If we can all remember that its not how important you are, or what rank you wear, but how you take care of your people and how hard you work at the job you are in that counts. You can't take it with you but you will have to give an account for your actions to the all mighty one day; and that's what we should all be focused on.

If your a servant leader, all the rest of it is just a bunch of smoked filled stuff anyways. Put your ego aside and just do the best you can and world will turn.

LTC Brian Balough  on 20-Oct-2010
Sir, Great discussion on the board process. Twenty years ago, a successful military career was making LTC and serving 20 years. That was based partly on the SOR rates of 80% to MAJ and 70% to LTC. With the high selection rates in recent years, is a successful career the same? What are the expectations now? One thing that I believe would help expectations is for the targets for the board to be published prior to the board meeting. It seems like the COL selection board is like the TV game show in the case that we don't know what the requirements are for the board prior to the release of the promotion list. Even after the list is release, we don't know what the goals of the board were unless you know everyone on the list and their AOC. As an ESEO, the board did a great job of selecting two outstanding LTCs, but we have no idea how many ESEOs will be selected in any given year. For a few years we only had one LTC selected to COL and last year we had three. If this is in part a numbers game, then lets be up front with the numbers. If there is a minimum number required, then why not communicate that to at least the officers in the zone prior to the board meeting so we as an AOC can communicate expectations within the AOC and each individual can take an informed look at their expectation? We probably have rules against sharing the targets prior to the board for good reasons, but from a mentoring and making the system more personal, there are good reasons why we should share the information, so maybe a balance or compromise can be obtained. Maybe the Consultants can be provided the information with instructions on what they can and cannot share. The Consultants are all outstanding leaders who I'm confident have the ability to protect the integrity of the system, but yet mentor the MSCs in their care.

Thank you for the opportunity to provide my 2 cents. VR LTC Balough

MG Rubenstein  on 20-Oct-2010
Thank you, all, for your useful comments. What do the others of you think?

Don Devaney  on 20-Oct-2010
I would say that something is terribly broken with the Army promotion system if the illustration above takes place. For example an MSC officer rated #30 or #31 that would have made the cutoff for promotion to 06 is removed from being selected to make room for the #118 person because he or she has some skill that is needed - to me is total baloney!

COL Reeder  on 20-Oct-2010
LTC Balough made a comment that was bit concerning to me - "Even after the list is release, we don't know what the goals of the board were unless you know everyone on the list and their AOC." After each board is released, the instructions to the board are also made available. The instructions tell the board how many of each AOC to promote, how many below the zone officers may be promoted, and why type of assignments (e.g. experiences) are needed to improve/shape the force. This document can be a learning tool to prepare for the next board. As I moved through the ranks, I would review these documents to understand the instructions and determine if there was a trend taking place that could prepare for. Even now, as I get approached by junior officers asking advise on particular assignment opportunities, I use the information from the most recent boards in forming my response.

I encourage the senior 70E on each post is get this document and allow officers to review it. This would make for a a great topic at a Silver Caduceus meeting.

COL Reeder

Angie Armentrout  on 19-Oct-2010
Sir,

Your comments have educated me on the promotion process which in turn will help me in my role as a senior civilian in mentoring the junior officers that work for me. Thank you for coming to McDonald Army Health Center and allowing me to participate in your session with the MSCs.

v/r, Angie Armentrout

CPT Lauren Hamlin  on 18-Oct-2010
Sir, I appreciate the insight on the promotion process and I agree that mentorship is the key factor to successful development of junior officers. Many of us can be compared to “undecided” undergraduates who have yet to declare a major and desperately need a counselor to discuss our options. I, for one, would welcome a mentor to discuss my options and create a career plan, but the problem is pairing up with an advisor who has the time and can give objective advice.

Many junior officers fear that a mentor will be biased towards their own specialty and, therefore, avoid contacting field grade officers for recommendations. Consequently, the problem is a two way street, senior officer’s lack of time and junior officer’s lack of knowledge on where to find a willing mentor. Therefore, my question is how, as a junior officer, can I find a willing mentor who can relate to my circumstances? Is this something that should be handled internally within a unit, or are there future plans to establish a mentorship program?

CPT David Moore  on 18-Oct-2010
Sir, Thanks for taking the time to speak with us at Ft Eustis last week. The information you shared was great. I honestly enjoy being an MSC officer. I have plenty of great mentors who I remain in constant contact with from the time I was a 2LT. Here at FT Eustis it is no different. My DCA/DCCS sits down with me and makes sure I'm on point. Great leadership and work environment makes it fun to come to work. I just came off recruiting duty and it was easy to recruit for a Corp that truly is the best in the Army. The insight you provided on how the promotion system works was awesome. Thanks again for your time.

CPT Nykeba Anthony  on 17-Oct-2010
Sir, thank you for taking the time to meet with our group of MSC Officers at Fort Eustis. I want to thank you for your contributions to building confident and competent company grade Officers in the Corp. I am truly inspired by all of your efforts in maximizing the use of current technologies such as blogs and facebook to connect with this generation of Officers. It is great to be educated on the promotion and selection process by simply viewing the postings on your blog. This forum allows all MSC Officers to participate in discussions, which serves as an educational tool and a self-developmental tool for Junior Officers in the Corp. Thank you for enhancing our learning and shaping us to become diverse leaders.

v/R CPT Nykeba Anthony

CPT Nykeba Anthony  on 17-Oct-2010
Sir, thank you for taking the time to meet with our group of MSC Officers at Fort Eustis. I want to thank you for your contributions to building confident and competent company grade Officers. I am truly inspired by all of your efforts in maximizing the use of current technologies such as blogs and facebook to connect with this generation of Officers. It is great to be educated on the promotion and selection process by simply viewing the postings on your blog. This forum allows all MSC Officers to participate in discussions, which serves as an educational tool and a self-developmental tool for Junior Officers in the Corp. Thank you for enhancing our learning and shaping us to become diverse leaders.

LTC Soo Lee Davis  on 16-Oct-2010
Perhaps it's time to investigate eliminating AOC's completely, or having them become secondarily important as we mature in experience and rank. It may not make sense to chanelize careers into specific AOC's once you reach LTC, especially if it means we aren't able to promote our best. We have so much stratification already in the AMEDD with all of our various Branches -- are we really so specialized in the 70 series of the MSC's that we need to be further sub-stratified?

LTC Tom Rylander  on 16-Oct-2010
Sir

Thank you for speaking to the Fort Eustis and Fort Lee MS Officers last week. As always, plenty of great "take aways", including our discussion about the most recent COL promotion list, and the background behind its numbers. I do hope this is not a trend, though we have seen this before. I think we all remember what the nurses experienced in the mid 90s. I don't know how we can always prevent this in the future, without reducing the number of promotions at the more junior levels; this, of course, would likely have negative effects on retention at the MAJ/LTC levels. We also cannot discount the economy. In the late 1990s and early 2000s (during the boom), then PERSCOM had dedicated an entire website to bringing officers (mostly competitive category CPTs) back into the Army, that had left in search of other pursuits. The pendulum has indeed swung in the other direction and, once the current economy recovers, earlier retirements may increase (again, in pursuit of more available employment in the civilian sector), and more room should become available for promotions at the COL level.

LTC Steve Hankins  on 15-Oct-2010
Sir,

I'd first like to thank you for taking time to visit with the MSC officers from Ft. Eustis and Ft. Lee. The comments and mentorship provided during your visit and your willingness to share your experiences with our Soldiers, officers, and civilians increased the trust in the AMEDD Senior Leadership across all levels of our command.

Promotion boards/selections have been and always will be processes that are filled with second guessing by all involved. You can't remove the subjectivity of what board members value out of the process. You can though, take the mystery out of the process through education and mentoring. I believe bringing back mock boards as a teaching tool is extremely valuable as is education on DOPMA goals.

I believe that education and mentoring on the process will lead to greater understanding and transparency. With that transparency, trust that the system works for the good of the Army and the individual should increase, thereby eliminating some of the "angst" about the process.

The key though is education and mentoring on the process and I echo COL Cook's comment on our chief obligation to our junior officers and Soldiers being to mentor early and often.

v/r

LTC Hankins

CPT J. Travis Robinette  on 14-Oct-2010
MG Rubenstein, First, it was an honor and a pleasure to meet you yesterday during your visit to Ft. Eustis. The explanation you provided in this blog was almost ver batum from your presentation. My main takeaway was that you are genuine in what you say and do. As an MSC CPT, it is comforting and reassuring to know that our leadership is so strong. As we know, everything rises and falls on leadership. This blog is very helpful in understanding the promotion system. Obviously, any carrer minded professional should know how promotions work. I'm a firm believer that if you do your job every day and strive to improve, the rest will take care of itself. It's good to hear those same sentiments from the top. Take care of Soldiers and each other and the rest will take care of itself.

Respectfully, CPT J. Travis Robinette

CPT Lionel Lowery  on 14-Oct-2010
Sir, I sincerely appreciate your leadership. The way that you took the time to explain this process to the Corps changed my perception of this process from a mystery to reality. With this knowledge, we (I say we because I am sure that hundreds of others will benefit as well) can add this to our toolbox as we build the way ahead for our various career paths. As John F. Kennedy stated: “Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.” That said, I thank you, Sir!

COL Robert Reeder  on 13-Oct-2010
Excellent comments. May I add a few observations?

Concerning why LTC X got selected and LTC Y didn't. Your explanation is spot on. I remember a number of years ago, when not only were their floors (minimum number of officers in a specialty that had to be selected), there was also a ceiling (a maximum number of officers in a specialty that could be selected). This meant that if there were 8 officers of the same MFA being considered and the ceiling was 6, two of the officers could not be selected, no matter how good their record was. I consider it a good thing that ceilings were done away with.

The other thing to remember is that each board is comprised of a number of individuals with their own experience. A different board looking at the same records could very easily come up with a different selection list. I once sat on the ILE board that reviewed records of officers recently selected for MAJ (The list had been released only 3 weeks prior). As a board, we were dismayed at some of the soldiers selected for promotion, based upon what was in the same record that the promotion board had reviewed. We actually ended up identifying a number of officers who were notified of their selection for MAJ that they were now being selected to "Show Cause" as to why they should continue military service, based upon their record.

I am also reminded of a good friend and mentor who had sucessfully completed LTC Command and was not selected for COL. However, a couple of months after his non-selection, he was selected for Resident Army War College. The next COL Board selected him for promotion to COL and the next COL Command board selected him for COL Command. Obviously, the 1st COL Board had a different viewpoint and focus than what the other boards had.

Speaking as an RC MSC Officer, I will say that RC Officers would love a 41% SOR. Typical RC COL Boards have an 18-21% SOR. As I recall, my "in zone" selection rate was around 10%, and I remember similar rates for other RC COL Boards. There are, in my opinion, 2 reasons for this - One unique to the RC and one where RC and AC issues are similar.

The unique issue is that RC officers who are passed over for promotion to COL will typically stay around longer than AC officers. We stay in order to accrue retirement points which equate to a larger retirement benefit upon reaching age 60.

The similar issue is a 2nd and 3rd order of effects from having high selection rates to MAJ and LTC. You commented about the DOPMA SOR goal of being 80% and 70%, respectively. As I recall, the SOR recently has been signifiantly higher. This results in more MAJ and LTC (which have been needed due to various issues, to include building up the force) commpeting for COL billets. My LTC Selection Board rate was about 95%. In addition to having more officers competing for promotion to COL and then not being selected, I fear that the current higher than DOPMA SOR rates are developing a "false aura of confidence." I remember as a Company Grade Officer on AD in the 80s and 90s seeing a good number of officers not selected for promotion to MAJ and LTC. It gave a realistic view that not everyone gets promoted. With the high selection rates, knowing someone not selected appears to be lessened.

I totally endorse youf comment about Mock Boards. I remember as a 1LT when the old 7th MEDCOM MSC Conferences included a mock board session where we reviewed actual files (edited for personal information), were given selection objectives to include a couple of MFA floors, and scored the files. It was a great learning experience that I have passed on the lessons learned to officers in my commands.

Again - great topic and I look forward to seeing posted comments.

v/r

Bob Reeder COL, MS 352 CSH Commander

COL John P. Cook  on 13-Oct-2010
Sir,

“As the pendulum swings”. In addition to your points made, I am concerned that with the high promotion rates to MAJ and LTC over the past few years, we may be experiencing a false expectation of promotion when the time comes to compete at the 06 level. Also, over this same period the first time our great young company grade officers get an official block check is at the grade of MAJ. To some, this may also be the first time one faces limits in the selection process. That said sir, these facts and the low selection rate on this board does, as you point out, amplify our critical obligation to mentor all - and mentor early. M/R COL John P. Cook

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