Overview
The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario served as the scientifically credible basis of the largest earthquake drill in United States history involving over 5,000 emergency responders and diaster recovery agents and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. The ShakeOut Scenario described what would happen during and after a magnitude 7.8 on the southernmost 300 km of the San Andreas fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. An earthquake like this – large enough to cause strong shaking over much of southern California – is inevitable and understanding its impacts is an important step in preparing for the event.
The ShakeOut Scenario considered a range of effects from the direct physical impacts to the long-term, social, cultural, and economic consequences. The ShakeOut Scenario also identified factors that will determine whether the event would be a disaster or a catastrophe, that is, whether the event would disrupt southern California for a few years, or for decades. This unprecedented project brought together a diverse collaboration of more than 300 scientists, academics, engineers, industry professionals, emergency managers, and public servants.
In November, 2008, the ShakeOut Scenario became the centerpiece of the Nation’s largest ever emergency response and public preparedness exercises, taking place during The Great Southern California ShakeOut.
ShakeOut Scenario Results
ShakeOut Scenario Graphics
Numerous movies, maps, and animations have been created to visually convey aspects of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake and its impacts.
ShakeOut Scenario Interviews, Podcasts, and Communications
Numerous interviews on video from people that participated in The Great Southern California ShakeOut, podcasts, B-Roll, press releases, and more.
Published Results
Results from the ShakeOut Scenario are currently published in two formats, the full scientific report and a narrative overview written for a general audience. Both may be downloaded from the links below. in summer, 2009, a final project document will be published, including sections about follow-on research, end user applications, and community outreach since the initial publication in June, 2008.
The ShakeOut Scenario
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150
California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25
version 1.0, 2008
By Lucile M. Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Dale Cox, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Suzanne Perry, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein
The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/
U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324
California Geological Survey Special Report 207
version 1.0, 2008
By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein
ShakeOut Scenario Research Studies
Scenario Components
Experts from a wide range of fields contributed to development of the ShakeOut Scenario. Studies with USGS authors are listed below and linked from this page. Studies from other contributors are listed below, and are available on a download site for other contributors.
Older Reinforced Concrete Buildings by Ertugrul Taciroglu and Payman Khalili-Tehrani, University of California, Los Angeles(Download: 9 Mb)
Elevators by Anshel Shiff, Los Altos Hills, CA (Download: 2.4 Mb)
Fire Following Earthquake by Charles R. Scawthorn, SPA Risk LLC, Berkeley, CA (Download: 2.5 Mb)
Hazardous Materials by Ronald T. Eguchi and Shubharoop Ghosh, ImageCat, Inc., Long Beach, CA (Download 2.6 Mb)
HAZUS by Hope Seligson MMI Engineering, INc., Huntington Beach, CA (Download: 3.1 Mb)
Hospitals by Mark A. Pickett, Toledo, OH (Download: 25 Mb)
Oil and Gas Pipelines by Donald Ballantyne, MMI Engineering, Inc., Tacoma, WA (Download: 4.5 Mb)
Railway Network by William G. Byers, Lenexa KS (Download: 12.2 Mb)
High-Rise Steel Buildings by Swaminathan Krishnan and Matthew Muto, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (Download: 26 Mb)
Analysis of Risk to Southern California Highway System by Stuart D. Werner, Sungbin Cho, and Ronald T. Eguchi, Seismic Systems & Engineering Consultants, Oakland, CA (Download: 11 Mb)
Telecommunications by Alex Tang, L & T Engineering and Project Management Consulting (Download: 52 Mb)
Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Buildings by Richard L. Hess, Hess Engineering, Inc., Los Alamitos, CA (Download: 5.8 Mb)
Woodframe Buildings by Wiliam Graf, URS Corporation, Los Angeles, CA (Download: 8.3 Mb)
Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1211/
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1211
by Benson C. Sherrouse, David J. Hester, and Anne M. Wein
Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1212/
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1212
by Benson C. Sherrouse and David J. Hester
Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1222/
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1222
by Benson C. Sherrouse, David J. Hester, and Anne M. Wein
Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1254/
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1254
by Benson C. Sherrouse and David J. Hester
Scenario Follow-On Research
Numerous researchers are now using the ShakeOut Scenario results in their own research. Links to their studies and products will be posted here as they become available.
ShakeOut Displacements at Southern California GPS Stations
by Nancy King and Jerry Svarc
Coseismic Displacements at Southern California Continuous GPS Sites Predicted for the ShakeOut Scenario
by Jessica R. Murray-Moraleda, Robert Simpson, and Jerry Svarc
Recovering from the ShakeOut Earthquake
by Anne Wein, Laurie Johnson, and Richard Bernknopf
