Archive for July, 2012

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Surge in public positivity as Olympics get under way

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

A new ComRes for ITV News at Ten tonight shows that there has been a surge in positivity surrounding the Olympic Games compared with just a fortnight ago.

Now more than half of the population (52%) are excited about London 2012, compared to a third (34%) who were excited two weeks ago. Younger people aged 18 to 34 are the most excited age group (57%) while those in Scotland (42%) and the South West (42%) are the least excited of all the regions.
There has been a noticeable rise in positivity about London 2012. Now, 59% of the public say that the Olympics are great for the UK in such difficult economic times, up from 39% two weeks ago. Three in five (60%) believe that hosting the London 2012 Olympics will improve Britain’s reputation abroad, while just one in five (20%) disagree.

A fortnight ago, 65% of the population said they planned to watch at least some of the Olympics on TV. Now the Games are under way, that figure has increased to three quarters (75%) of British people.

More than three quarters (77%) of those who took the survey after 9pm say they watched the London 2012 Olympics Opening Ceremony, with just 20% who disagree and 3% who are not sure. Out of all respondents who say that they watched it, an overwhelming majority (83%) say that they were impressed by it. Just one in ten (12%) said that they were not impressed by it.

Finally, a majority of 78% are proud of the British sports men and women who are competing in the London 2012 Olympics. Just one in ten (9%) disagree.

ComRes interviewed 2,010 GB adults online from 27th to 29th July 2012.  1,265 respondents took the survey after 9pm on Friday. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults

 

UPDATE: New COMRES phone poll out.

Conservatives 33 (nc)

Labour 44 (+2)

Lib Dems 10 (-3)

Others 13 (+1)

 

Changes are from their last phone poll.

TSE



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Will this be a vote winner for the Lib Dems?

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

The Independent is reporting that

A government-wide spending review is to be scaled back because Nick Clegg is refusing to commit to billions of pounds of further cuts in the welfare budget…whilst  the Liberal Democrats are likely to fight the election on a pledge to clear the remaining deficit through tax rises such as a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m and a cut in the 40 per cent tax relief on pension contributions enjoyed by higher rate taxpayers.

Additionally for Nick Clegg, Activists are threatening to table an emergency motion at the party’s autumn conference in an attempt to prevent the leadership supporting a new round of cuts, which they fear would be deeply unpopular.

The Times are saying

Evan Harris, the former Lib Dem MP and a figurehead of the grassroots, said that no further pacts should be made with the Conservatives over spending.

The Independent, then notes, this could also lead to an opportunity for the Tories

Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne may outline proposed cuts at the 2015 election to show how the Tories would “finish the job” of clearing the deficit and put Labour under pressure to spell out how quickly it would balance the nation’s books. The move would also be designed to reassure financial markets that the Tories were still prepared to take “tough decisions” on spending.

TSE

 



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Will Osborne still be Chancellor at the General Election?

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

On Friday evening Standard and Poor reaffirmed  that the UK will continue to enjoy an AAA credit rating.

This has been interpreted as a boost for George Osborne, after recent bad news of the 0.7% GDP contraction, that reinforced the fact we’re currently in a double-dip recession, and after heavy criticism of his general performance.

As the Spectator notes

Those three As and the low cost of borrowing are the trump cards he produces not just at key events like the Budget, but at every Treasury question time, and in response to every urgent question.

Both Ladbrokes and William Hill have markets on Osborne still  being Chancellor at the next election, S&P’s decision, increased the likelihood of Osborne being Chancellor at the time of the next General Election.

TSE



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Olympics poll has public backing growing almost by the hour

Monday, July 30th, 2012

Public scepticism about whether the London Olympics represent value for money for British taxpayers has receded now the Games have begun, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent.

Some 50% believe the Olympics will be worth the £9.3bn being spent while 42% disagree.

Opinion has turned round since ComRes last tested this idea in March, when only 40% of people thought the Games would be worth it and 51% disagreed.

    The latest poll suggests that the opening ceremony gave a real boost with backing increasing almost by the hour.

    Only 43% of those questioned on Friday before the ceremony began thought it was would be worth the money, but the proportion rose to 53% after 9pm. By Sunday support had risen to 57%

There is usually a voting intention question in the Indy ComRes poll but I have not got that data at the moment.

  • Next couple of days on PB TSE will be in charge. I’m visiting a close family member who is very poorly.
  • Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB