And the LDs move to within one point

A second poll out tonight, from Harris for the Daily Mail, has good news for the Yellows, moderately good news for the blues, and Labour edging down to just 24%. This is just one point above the 23% that the Angus Reid/Economist poll found.

News of the poll has come from the reproduction of front page of the paper that’s on the PoliticsHome site. We don’t know the fieldwork date but based on last week’s survey for the paper I’m assuming that it finished today.

One of the great hopes of Lib Dem strategists is that Labour supporters will switch to them when they realise that the election is lost.

Mike Smithson

Only Labour moves up a point

Those who were expecting big polling changes following the final debate will be disappointed. In the latest YouGov daily poll the Tories remain at their pre-Bigotgate 34% with both Labour and the LDs on 28%.

I think that the Team Blue will find it slightly deflating not to be making the progress that last night’s performance by Cameron might have suggested. A 34 point share is less than one point up on what Michael Howard got in 2005.

So not a lot of movement. Nothing seems to have changed.

Mike Smithson

Guardian

For me the striking thing about Labour’s final week campaign is not the effectiveness of the poster itself but who it it aimed at. For study after study has shown that the group most detached from the political process are younger working class women.

Not only are they less likely to vote than working class men of the same age but they are also much less likely to have any political allegiance.

But how do you get to them? In countries where political TV advertisements are allowed the campaigns would be piling money into targeted advertising linked to the programmes that this group most watches. But that’s not possible in the UK because of restrictions.

So full marks to Labour for seeking to engage this group. But why have they left it so late and is this poster really going to get the message through?

Mike Smithson