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Is Miliband beating Brown in the Telegraph’s poll?

The big Labour leadership news overnight looks set to be a YouGov poll matching Gordon Brown up against the man who he could be facing in a challenge for his job – David Miliband.

We have not, as yet, got any numbers but my guess is that it will show that the Foreign Secretary is ahead by a big margin. If that is the case then it will add a new dimension to the situation and put more pressure on for Miliband to make a challenge.

The paper has been teasing us in its blog which says the results “…make unmissable reading.”

Mike Smithson

Screen shot from BBC North East

Or would he follow his normal practice and stand aside?

One of the strong messages coming from the Brown camp in the past thirty-six hours is that he would not budge and would fight to the end if challenged. By this they mean, I guess, that anybody wanting to take him on would have to go through all of Labour convoluted process which involves, initially, getting one eight of the parliamentary party to support a challenge.

Clearly such fighting talk is right for the moment and anyone planning a move has got to be persuaded that Gordon is not going to go easily. But is this really the case? For isn’t Brown’s whole political CV full of moments when he has pulled back from the fight.

It will be recalled that in his early days, before he became an MP, Gordon was reluctant to let his name go forward for safe seats in Scotland until a certainty came up and the future Prime Minister was assured that there was no serious contest.

The same has gone with the leadership. After Neil Kinnock’s resignation following the 1992 general election Brown was being strongly urged, by Tony Blair and others, to put his hat into the ring against John Smith. He didn’t. Then in 2004 1994 he pulled out when the polls were showing that Blair would do much better and there was the famous meal at the Granita.

Last year he went to extraordinary lengths to get his coronation and then there was the general election U-turn in early October.

So my guess is that if a challenger, Miliband perhaps, is determined enough then Gordon will buckle.

Mike Smithson

What’s the point of switching leaders if the ratings won’t go up?

I’m still in France with only minimal internet access and have been unable to follow the chain of events that David Miliband’s Guardian article has set off. But one thing is clear – the Foreign Secretary’s action has put what people were talking about privately right onto the public agenda and it’s hard to see any going back.

The PM’s aides have always been ferocious in the defence of their man and Miliband must have known what he was getting into when he decided to publish the article. This can only end, surely, with him or Gord being out of a job?

One thing we can expect in the next few days are polling match-ups – “would you be more or less likely to vote Labour with DM as leader” etc. etc. When these have been asked in recent months there has been no overwhelming evidence that a change at the top is going to help.

For Miliband’s problem, and those of other possible contenders in a leadership election, is that none of them are very well known and have very low levels of public recognition. The Labour years have been dominated by figures who have left the scene and Gordon.

Brown’s strategy of making all the big announcements himself has prevented other figures from establishing any sort of public profile. This has been exacerbated by the now common practice of Labour not putting up ministers to answer points in TV discussions and the like.

Who apart from political nerds has even heard of let alone recognise the likes of Denham, Johnson and to a lesser extent Harman? Miliband’s personal media coverage in what would normally be the high profile role of foreign secretary has been relatively light.

If Labour is to go through the pain of replacing Gord then there has to be an obvious gain. I don’t think the pollsters will provide the evidence.

Meanwhile every day that goes by brings the general election that much nearer and Cameron, no doubt, is enjoying his holiday in Devon.

Mike Smithson

The Prime Minister’s on his way in Israel – how long has the British one got left?

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