Thursday Links

• EIA's new projections for US oil production above.  I haven't really taken any strong position on how big the tight oil is going to get, since I don't understand how to assess it accurately; it's tough because it involves multiplying a pretty large number (the oil in place) by a rather small number (the recovery rate) and the result is necessarily quite uncertain.  The EIA's guess above looks as good as any. 
• Students demanding universities divest in fossil fuel companies.  Harvard tells them where to stuff it: "We always appreciate hearing from students about their viewpoints, but Harvard is not considering divesting from companies related to fossil fuels." This sounds like a winnable battle: I don't see how any university can consistently defend Harvard's position over a long period of time.  The science is irrefutable, and unlike right-wing politicians, no university can ignore science.  Thus they are left saying "we know fossil fuels are terrible for the planet but we propose to continue investing in them because we are making so much money".  It's a morally weak position and every university administrator is going to feel that in their bones (in a way that a for-profit institution wouldn't).  It may take five years, but if the students keep up the pressure, they will win.
• Driverless tractors coming along well.  Apparently the beta customer is a 1.5 million(!) acre farm in Brazil.  Supposedly, the problem this is solving is that there are no skilled employees available to drive tractors in rural areas.

Chinese Urbanization in Context

Tuesday Links

• US oil production (above) is still increasing in September, according to the EIA.  The major contributions are coming from the Eagle Ford shale and the Permian Basin in Texas, and the Bakken formation in North Dakota.
• October PMI indicates expansion in Chinese manufacturing for the first time in 2012.
• Outlook for offshore wind: dark and stormy.
• US house prices up over 6% in October compared to last year.
• Arms race between the US and China in drones?

Latest Ice Sheet Mass Balance Estimates

Weekend Links

• Sober Look makes a really important point about Greece here that I hadn't realized: although Greece's debt is really high and will be for a long time, that is really not their problem in the short to medium term as the agencies holding the debt have reduced the terms to the point that Greece's interest payments as a fraction of GDP are very modest and bearable.
• The bullish case on Tesla Motors.
• Where ARPA-E is spending our tax dollars on energy research.
• Homebuilders are starting to produce multigenerational housing.
• I've not always been a big fan of Dianne Feinstein but I like her amendment making it clear that the government may not detain citizens and permanent residents without charge or trial.  Apparently the Obama administration would prefer to have police state powers, which is appalling.
• Solar panels being sold like Tupperware?  Hey, whatever works.  This was particularly amusing:

I’ve had at least 10 people say, ‘I have the biggest solar system in the community,’ ” he said. “They don’t say, ‘I have the lowest electric bill.

That's human nature for you*, and we have to get it working for the climate, instead of against it.

*At least as expressed in civilizations.

Did China's Oil Consumption Decline 4% in 2011?

Thursday Links

• The above graphic of recent former Soviet Union oil production comes from an excellent post at TOD by Rembrandt Koppelaar.
• Another triumph for the Onion (and I claim this is on-topic for the blog as Kim Jong-Un is at least a minor threat to civilization - that's my story and I'm sticking to it).
• Flood insurance premium increases will make it harder to live near the coast following Hurricane Sandy.

Top Home Electricity Users

Tuesday Links

• Trends in western wildfires: they've gotten much worse and will get worse yet.  The above is Fig. 11 from the report.  Anticipation of the long-term unpleasantness of this trend was a secondary factor in my decision to move east a couple of years back (the primary one being house prices). Of course nowhere will be immune from climate change - here in the east we are going to have to deal with more and worse storms, at an absolute minimum.
• Greece: another kludge has been found in time.
• Will Japan inflate away their debt?  Tim Duy thinks so.
• New net-zero homes needn't cost more than a lot of conventional construction.
• Some interesting speculations about why civilization didn't start earlier.  I find this a fascinating question that doesn't seem satisfactorily answered.  In particular, what were the key genetic differences that prevented Neanderthals evolving to civilized status during the Eemian? And why couldn't Homo Sapiens civilizations develop in tropical regions during the last ice age?  (Given that civilizations have tended to sprout like weeds all over the planet during the Holocene).
• This is off-topic but I'm fascinated by the whole HP-Autonomy scandal.  HP's story hasn't made any sense to me from the start - they paid $10b for this thing but couldn't do enough due diligence to detect $5-$6b worth of accounting problems?  Doesn't that make them colossal screw-ups even in their own telling of the story?  Some shareholders apparently think so.
• Heat-pump clothes-dryers on the way in the US?
• New Cambridge University center on civilizational risk.

Urban Job Growth in China

Weekend Links

• 16% of the US soybean crop is going for biodiesel.
• AI continues to make discomforting progress.  I am somewhat reassured by the fact that Siri on my iPhone continues to suck.

Thanksgiving Links

• The above shows the history of wind tax credits in the US.  The current credit is due to expire at the end of this year, which will eviscerate wind power deployment again.  This is a crazy way to nurture an industry that is strategically important but needs some subsidy to compete against fossil fuel power that doesn't have to pay for its externality of destroying the holocene climate.
• Is the US using malware to spy on the French?
• I don't know if the ceasefire will hold, but this collaboration between Egypt and the US to mediate as the seconds in the duel between Israel and Hamas seems quite promising.
• Construction in Europe sags further.

Blogging will probably be light for the next few days...

Tuesday Links

• The local temperature trend under climate change may be highly uncertain.
• Technology and the job market: remaining machinists are increasingly computer programmers.
• The Chinese now have their own global energy outlook.
• Three possible scenarios for Chinese growth.

Is the Chinese Construction Industry Too Large?