Annual Energy Outlook - Model Documentation

PDF Coal Market Module

December 12, 2011

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

PDF Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

December 1, 2011

Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

PDF DRI Model of the U.S. Economy -- Model Documentation

December 1, 1993

Provides documentation on Data Resources, Inc., DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input/Output Model. It also describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations.

PDF Electricity Market Module

July 25, 2011

Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2011. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM) Submodule.

PDF Industrial Demand Module

June 1, 2011

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) . The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF Integrating Module

August 23, 2012

Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

PDF International Energy Module Module

June 28, 2011

Summarizes the overall structure of the International Energy Model and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods.

PDF Macroeconomic Activity Module

June 10, 2011

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2010 (AEO2010). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code.

PDF Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Building Models

August 1, 2000

This paper presents the modeling methodology, projected market penetration, and impact of distributed generation with respect to offsetting future electricity needs and carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial buildings sector in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) reference case.

PDF Modifications to Incorporate Competitive Electricity Prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 1998

February 1, 1998

The purpose of this report is to describe modifications to the Electricity Market Module (EMM) for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998. It describes revisions necessary to derive competitive electricity prices and the corresponding reserve margins.

PDF NEMS - National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, The

October 1, 2009

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 a summary description of NEMS and each of its components. NEMS is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of energy markets for the midterm period through 2030. The NEMS is used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook.

NEMS - Model Development

PDF Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module

February 29, 2012

Documents the archived version of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 2011.

PDF Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

July 29, 2011

Defines the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model's basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

PDF Petroleum Market Module Model Documentation (Volume 1)

October 3, 2011

Model Documentation Volume I - Defines the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

PDF Petroleum Market Module Model Documentation (Volume 2)

October 3, 2011

Model Documentation Volume II - Defines the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

PDF Renewable Fuels Module

August 3, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.

PDF Residential Sector Demand Module

November 22, 2011

Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

PDF Transportation Sector Module

April 23, 2012

Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model.

International Energy Outlook - Model Documentation

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Commercial Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: World Electricity Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. .

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model: Industrial Model

October 12, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Macroeconomic Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Macroeconomic Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus: Main Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus: Natural Gas Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus: Refinery Model

October 4, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus: Residential Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Model

September 29, 2011

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

PDF World Energy Projection System Plus: An Overview

September 29, 2011

This report contains a summary description of the methodology and scope of WEPS+ and each of its component models. WEPS+ is a computer-based, energy modeling system of long-term international energy markets for the period through 2035. The system was used to produce the International Energy Outlook 2011.

PDF World Oil Refining Logistics Demand Model "World" Reference Manual

March 1, 1994

This manual is intended primarily for use as a reference by analysts applying the WORLD model to regional studies. It also provides overview information on WORLD features of potential interest to managers and analysts.

PDF System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

August 1, 2003

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the SAGE methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

PDF System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation

August 1,2003

The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the SAGE structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Model Documentation

PDF Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

April 16, 2009

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model

November 30, 2011

The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

 

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Heating Oil Price Model

November 9, 2009

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

November 9, 2009

The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model

November 30, 2011

The "other" petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products.

 

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty

October 1, 2009

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Model

August 11, 2009

Description of the procedures for estimating carbon dioxide emissions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

PDF Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

June 1, 2010

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.