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LONGER RANGE FORECAST
By: Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lawrence

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2012-2012 Winter Forecast Highlights for Western North Dakota

Kevin Lawrence -- Chief Meteorologist NBC North Dakota News

Issued October 31, 2012

Don`t expect a repeat performance of last winter`s no-show!

Last winter (2011-2012) was exceptionally mild with well below normal snowfall. I do not think the winter of 2012-2013 will follow suit. I am expecting a much closer to "average" North Dakota winter. When compared to last year, it`ll be colder and snowier. A typical amount of snow for western North Dakota is in the 50-inch range. Receiving more snow than last winter will be rather easy...

Bismarck received 13.6 inches of snow last winter. The record least amount stands at 11.7 inches, from 1980-1981. Bismarck`s combined temperature deviation for December, January, and February was +7.5 degrees. It was a remarkably mild winter. In contrast, the winter of 2010-2011 brought the Capital City 85.4" of snow, and a winter temperature average of -3.7 degrees. I am forecasting our winter to be colder and snowier than last winter, but not as harsh as two winters ago.

In the United States, temperatures are forecast to average above normal in the west (except along the coast), and near or slightly below normal in the east. North Dakota will be a "battleground" state with pleasant, mild stretches followed by major Arctic cold waves. Stronger Alberta Clippers and a few Colorado lows will remind us quickly that not all winters can be like last year. However, drought conditions could worsen (especially eastern Montana) or at least persists if the Pacific Northwest finds itself north of the active storm track most of the winter season.

I am in agreement with NOAA`s official forecast, calling for slightly warmer than normal temperatures for December-February, and "Equal Chances" for precipitation (meaning there is no predominant signal to suggest above or below normal.)

Here is NOAA`s official temperature outlook for December 2012 through February 2013:



Here is NOAA`s official precipitation outlook for December 2012 through February 2013:


Highlights from NOAA`s official forecast for the United States:

***Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.

***Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.

***Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.

***Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.

***Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

The rest of the country falls into the "equal chance" category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

To read the full article on NOAA`s official winter forecast issued October 18, 2012,
click here

El Nino may not be such a huge factor determining out winter forecast after all. I think other factors will play a more significant role, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This has been an exceptional indicator, and I have incorporated it into my shorter-range forecasts for the past several years. Last winter, the AO was predominantly in a positive state, simply preventing a lot of Arctic-cold intrusions into the lower-48 states. Here is a graphic to illustrate:



The left side is a Positive (+AO) phase. This often brings milder, Pacific air across the nation opposed to Arctic air as seen on the left image with a Negative (-AO) state. A key indicator is to see the state of the stratosphere circling near the North Pole. If there is a sudden "warming" in the region, that often implies cold air on the move southward, right into the United States. Last year, the AO was strongly positive for most of the winter, which is quite rare for such a long period of time. I highly doubt we`ll have a strong +AO all winter this time around.

Another good pattern to detect atmospheric blocking is another aspect of the AO, called the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Like the AO, it`s a good precursor for what`s to come (especially for the Northeast), but the time-frame of accuracy is only about two weeks.



Two winters ago, we had a cold and snowy winter with the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in a negative phase, A negatively-phased AO, and La Nina. Although we`re in the midst of a negative PDO cycle, it doesn`t always mean a cold and snowy winter, especially when other factors aren`t in concert. For instance, this winter, we have no La Nina (a weak El Nino instead), and an Arctic Oscillation that will probably fluctuate between positive and negative more frequently. Regardless, the PDO is an important index to watch, just as we would monitor AO/NAO, El Nino/La Nina. Interesting to note, the PDO was predominately positive during the 1990s -- a decade with relatively mild winters in North Dakota.

What about other forecasts? Here is a sampling of other winter outlooks issued by various outlets:


Farmer`s Almanac 2012-2013 Winter Forecast:



AccuWeather 2012-2013 Winter Forecast:



AccuWeather 2012-2013 Snowfall only Forecast:



Computer modeling has come very far and much more accurate in recent years, and the new Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is predicting a colder than average winter in Canada, but leaves most of the lower-48 milder than what`s typical. Let`s break it down graphically. The general idea is to think of blue areas as below average, orange areas as above average:

The CFSv2 December-January-February 2012-2013 temperature forecast:


Now, let`s see what the computer model forecast is for each winter month individually.

The CFSv2 December 2012 forecast:



The CFSv2 January 2013 forecast:



The CFSv2 February 2013 forecast:


December-February in summary:

---I agree with NOAA`s forecast of slightly above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

---I agree with the CFSv2 forecast for North Dakota being situated between a milder western U.S. and colder Canada, resulting in wild temperature fluctuations.

---Although I`m not forecasting a particularly harsh winter, it will not be as tame as our "non-winter" of last year.

---Well above average amounts of snow are not likely.

---Drought conditions will persists or could worsen. Keep in mind winter precipitation is light compared to other seasons.

I will be updating this forecast by mid-December, or before if needed. Contact me anytime if you have questions at lawrence@kfyrtv.com or visit my Facebook page (bottom of this page).



Definitions:

El Nino:

A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Nino 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

La Nina:

A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a negative sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Nino 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

PDO:

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in Pacific Basin and North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean.

AO:

The Arctic Oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase.

NAO:

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity.



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