Baseball Prospectus 2013

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The Signal and the Noise

PECOTA creator Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Extra Innings

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Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Probably Pointless Pitchout

by Sam Miller

Most pitchouts aren't very effective. Maybe managers should stop calling for them. . . . more | 2 unread comments

Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Does Having a Veteran Around Help Young Players?

by Russell A. Carleton

Veteran players are often perceived to have a positive effect on their younger teammates, but can we see it in the stats? . . . more | 0 comments

Rumor Roundup: Monday, January 14

by Daniel Rathman

J.J. Hardy probably won't be dealt, the Rockies are hunting for hurlers, and the Mets attended Brian Wilson's workout. . . . more | 0 comments

The Week In Quotes: January 7-13

by Hudson Belinsky, Jonah Birenbaum and Andrew Koo

Running through the notable quotes of the week that was. . . . more | 0 comments

Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Safeco’s Overstated Impact on Fantasy Production

by Derek Carty

While Safeco has a definite impact on hitters, will the new dimensions really have a significant impact on a player's fantasy value? . . . more | 1 unread comment

Fantasy Article The Keeper Reaper: Second, Short, and Catcher for 1/14/13

by Josh Shepardson

Sal Perez, Rickie Weeks, and Ben Zobrist go under the keeper microscope this week . . . more | 1 unread comment

Saturday, January 12

Premium Article Overthinking It: Bargain Bin Free Agents

by Ben Lindbergh

Most of the impact free agents are off the market, but there are still some potential values available to teams that are willing to dig deep. . . . more | 7 unread comments

Friday, January 11

Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects

by Jason Parks

It's a thin system, but there are some players who offer reasons for hope. . . . more | 33 unread comments

Premium Article Perfect Game World Showcase Top Prospects: Top Talent from the Class of 2013 and 2014

by David Rawnsley

Perfect Game breaks down the top talent from its January 5-6 World Showcase in Ft. Myers, Florida . . . more | 1 unread comment

Rumor Roundup: Friday, January 11

by Daniel Rathman

Justin Upton rejects a trade to Seattle, and Brian Wilson is nearing a return to the mound. . . . more | 11 unread comments

Premium Article Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Roger Clemens

by Doug Thorburn

Regardless of whether the Rocket was clean, his mechanics were a beautiful sight to behold. . . . more | 13 unread comments

Fantasy Article The Keeper Reaper: Outfielders for 1/11/13

by Paul Singman

Rios, Ross, and Cuddyer highlight this week's Keeper list. . . . more | 3 unread comments

The BP Wayback Machine: Bagging on Bagwell

by Christina Kahrl

Character assassination, speculation, a commitment to process... ah, it has to be Hall of Fame season. . . . more | 4 unread comments

Thursday, January 10

On the Beat: A Change in the Process

by John Perrotto

A Hall of Fame voter calls for reform, catches up on Alex Rodriguez, and gets the inside scoop on Mike Morse, Lance Berkman, and Scott Kazmir. . . . more | 44 unread comments

Overthinking It: Has the Sabermetric Movement Been Bad for Jack Morris?

by Ben Lindbergh

Or is all the campaigning to keep Jack Morris out of the Hall actually making it more likely that he'll get in? . . . more | 8 unread comments

Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Lessons from the Hall of Fame Vote

by Russell A. Carleton

What the voting results tell us about the 10-player limit, the electorate's feelings about PED use, and the public/private-ballot split. . . . more | 14 unread comments

Premium Article Skewed Left: Murphy, Morris, and Using the Full 15 Ballots

by Zachary Levine

What do Dale Murphy's and Jack Morris' vote totals in their final and penultimate years on the BBWAA ballot, respectively, say about their odds of induction? . . . more | 2 unread comments

Premium Article In A Pickle: Jay Walking is no Felony

by Jason Wojciechowski

Why Darren Oliver's contract doesn't entitle us (or the Blue Jays) to a thing. . . . more | 10 unread comments

Premium Article Prospect Profile: Tyler Beede

by Hudson Belinsky

Beede became famous for turning down a huge payday from Toronto to go to college, but if he keeps up the current pace, he may be in store for an even bigger one in 2014. . . . more | 1 unread comment

Manufactured Runs: What Hall of Fame Voters are Doing to the Hall of Fame

by Colin Wyers

Writers didn't want to induct anybody into the Hall of Fame this year, a decision with no small consequences. . . . more | 46 unread comments

Premium Article Pebble Hunting: When the Teams That Don't Have Hall of Famers Yet Will Have Hall of Famers

by Sam Miller

This year's election results didn't bring us any closer to having an inductee for every team. When will the Hall of Fame complete the set? . . . more | 16 unread comments

Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Voting Travesty

by Derek Carty

One player who defines a position was shut out of the Hall of Fame yesterday. . . . more | 23 unread comments

Fantasy Article The Keeper Reaper: Starting Pitching for 1/10/13

by Paul Sporer

Greinke, Darvish, and Chapman hit this week's Keeper Reaper . . . more | 16 unread comments

Wednesday, January 9

Hall of Fame Voting: Casting Our Ballots

by Baseball Prospectus

With Hall of Fame voting results on the way, BP staff members fill out their ballots to determine which players they would want enshrined in Cooperstown. . . . more | 212 unread comments

The Lineup Card: 10 Memories of Hall of Fame Candidates

by Baseball Prospectus

The BP team reminisces about some of the men on the Hall of Fame ballot. . . . more | 9 unread comments

Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Nationals (Finally) Bring Back LaRoche

by Ben Lindbergh

It took two months, but Adam LaRoche eventually accepted the Nationals' offer to return for two more years. . . . more | 3 unread comments

Premium Article Out of Left Field: Jumping the Gun on 2013 Predictions

by Matthew Kory

Why wait around to find out what's going to happen -- or even to find out what people think is going to happen? Matt's ready now. . . . more | 12 unread comments

Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, January 9

by Daniel Rathman

Mike Morse could be on the move now that Adam LaRoche has signed a deal with the Nationals. . . . more | 3 unread comments

Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Esmil Rogers, Fantasy Sleeper

by Jason Collette

A look at how former prospect Esmil Rogers has begun to get his career back on track . . . more | 5 unread comments

Fantasy Article The Keeper Reaper: Relievers for 1/9/13

by Dan Mennella

The Minnesota and Milwaukee bullpens are examined in this week's Reaper. . . . more | 3 unread comments