Fausta's Blog

At OilPrice.com, James Stafford interviews James Kwak, associate professor at the University of Connecticut School of Law and blogs at The Baseline Scenario, which he co-founded with Simon Johnson

Oilprice.com: What are your thoughts on America’s oil and gas boom?

James Kwak: There are some obvious benefits. Lower dependence on politically unstable parts of the world is clearly good. Shifting electricity production from coal to natural gas is also good. One can also come up with a plausible scenario in which plentiful natural gas buys us the time necessary to shift toward greater usage of renewable energy sources.

On the downside, I worry about the political implications of the boom. Increased domestic production will encourage politicians to declare victory on the energy front without doing anything about the big, long-term problem: climate change. Before, fears of rising energy prices and dependence on the Middle East were encouraging political investment in renewables and conservation. Now the message from ExxonMobil and its allies will be that we don’t need to do anything because we are a (net) energy exporter and energy is cheap. That will further reduce the chances that we do anything meaningful about climate change.

Oilprice.com: What do you see happening to the US and global economies in 2013?

James Kwak: I’m modestly positive about the U.S., but that’s not because of any particular insight. It’s because I read Calculated Risk, and because the housing market is turning around.

Go read the whole thing.

Raid on home of Twitter user suspected of spreading Chávez health rumours
Alleged microblogger is cousin of prominent opposition journalist who has been critical of the Venezuelan government

Venezuelan intelligence officers have raided the home of a Twitter user suspected of spreading destabilising rumours about the health of Hugo Chávez ahead of an inauguration that the ailing president looks increasingly unlikely to attend.

The alleged microblogger, Federico Medina Ravell is the cousin of a prominent opposition figure, prompting concerns that a long-simmering “information war” could be escalating as the government and its opponents try to fill the vacuum left by a leader who has not been seen or heard in public since he flew to Cuba for emergency cancer surgery a month ago.

The team of Sebin (Bolivarian National Intelligence Service) officers confiscated several computers from Medina’s home in Valencia on Sunday night, according to domestic newspapers.

Medina is the cousin of Alberto Federico Ravell, a well-known opposition journalist and co-founder of Globovision, a major news broadcaster and staunch critic of the Chávez government.

Medina, who was not at home, is accused of instigating terrorism through social networking sites. He is said to be behind the @LucioQuincioC Twitter account, which has claimed that Chávez will not return from Havana.

Fausta’s blog readers may recall that Globovision has been in Chavez’s cross-hairs for several years. In 2011 Hugo Chavez’s dictatorship fined TV channel Globovision US$2.1 million over its coverage of the deadly prison riots at Rodeo prison. The fine equaled more than 7.5% of the station’s annual revenues. Guillermo Zuloaga, Globovision’s majority owner, had to flee Venezuela in 2010, following Chavez’s constant threats against him and the station.

Meanwhile, as Cuba vies for control in post-Chávez Venezuela and other socialist heads-of-state plan to show up in Caracas for Chavez’s third inaugural (whether Chavez himself is there or not), the Venezuelan Catholic Church has said that delaying President Hugo Chavez’s inauguration would be a “morally unacceptable” violation of the constitution.

Cross-posted at Liberty Unyielding.

UPDATE,
The winner of BEST POST TITLE goes to Carlos Eire, Forecast for Venezuela: Chance of the shinola hitting the fan at 99.999999 %

ARGENTINA
UK rebuffs Argentina on negotiations over Falkland Islands

The enemy within
A weakened president falls out with fellow Peronists

BOLIVIA
Duck Hunting of a Sort

BRAZIL
Brazil Plans Shift in Strategy
Brazil is shifting gears in its effort revive its troubled economy, away from aggressive currency and interest-rate policies to a more hands-off approach, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in an interview.

Must have been a no-news week at the Beeb: Cat ‘arrested’ for break-in at Brazilian prison.

CHILE
Chile land owners killed in ‘arson attack’
A Chilean landowner and his wife, who were involved in a land dispute with a local indigenous group, have been killed in a suspected arson attack.

Victor Jara murder: Chile arrests ex-army officers

COLOMBIA
COLOMBIA FIRM MAKES ARMORED CLOTHES FOR KIDS

CUBA
The EU’s Immoral Ambassador to Cuba

How Castro Rules Venezuela

Christopher Kennedy Lawford, JFK’s Nephew: Fidel Castro Was ‘An Amazing Guy’

HAITI
Still waiting for recovery
Three years after a devastating earthquake, the “Republic of NGOs” has become the country of the unemployed

HONDURAS
Honduras investigates Bogota embassy Christmas party
Honduras has said it is setting up a commission to investigate reports that a wild Christmas party was held at its embassy in the Colombian capital.

PANAMA
The Popeil Pocket Fisherman and the Croc

PUERTO RICO
Notable 2012 Art Exhibitions in San Juan, Puerto Rico

URUGUAY
After Years in Solitary, an Austere Life as Uruguay’s President

VENEZUELA
WEEKEND AT HUGO’S

Matilda He Take The Money and Ruin Venezuela

OLIVER STONE: CHAVEZ REPRESENTS ‘THE THINGS OBAMA STOOD FOR IN OUR COUNTRY IN 2008′

VENEZUELA SLAMS ‘PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR’ OVER CHAVEZ HEALTH

Venezuela: Split leadership

Venezuela National Assembly meets amid Chavez crisis

The week’s posts and podcast:
Cuban regime orchestrating Venezuelan transition

Report: Iran’s spy network

Argentina: Diplomacy by advert

Chavez on life support

Podcast: US-Latin America: The year in review

With Hugo Chavez completely out of the public eye for nearly a month, January 10 coming up, and factional infighting among Chavistas, will there be a constitutional coup?

Last Friday Hugo’s heir apparent, Nicolas Maduro, dismissed the Venezuelan Constitution as a formality.

The WSJ explains:

Speculation is growing that the president’s illness, the specific details of which are being kept secret by the government, will force him from power after 14 years, despite having been re-elected in October. Mr. Chavez is set to be inaugurated into his next term Jan. 10—the date specified by the constitution.

But in a televised interview Friday night, Mr. Maduro dubbed the swearing in ceremony as just a “formality” and said that it could be postponed for the re-elected Mr. Chavez. Mr. Maduro’s comments are likely to anger opposition politicians who have said that the president’s inability to appear at the inauguration should indicate that he is too sick to rule and trigger new elections, which the constitution calls for if the head of state dies or is incapacitated.

Daniel Duquenal writes about the interview,

Today, in a normal country where the elected president is more dead than alive the powers in place would have started preparing for a transition, consulted around, etc..  Here in Venezuela the opposition is accused of all evils, is told that never shall chavismo speak to them, while we are told the constitutional provisions are optional, mere formalities.

In short, we are told that chavismo is starting a coup d’état. Or rather, is deepening the coup d’etat that started in Funerary 1999 when Chavez called for an illegal constituent assembly. Or rather, is a culmination of sorts of the coup of February 1992 when again, since 1958, it was thought OK that a small group of people decide what does goes on in Venezuela according to their personal will and interests. See, on this regard today offers no surprise for those watching Venezuela’s involution since 1992. It is just more crass, more open, more frontal, more f**k you.

I am not going into details because I did not watch the proceedings and I have just been checking late tonight what happened this Saturday in Caracas when Diosdado Cabello was sworn in president of the National Assembly for the 2013 session. By the way, should I go back to name it Nazional Assembly since the opposition is shut almost as effectively than it was in the previous monochromatic 2005-2010 assembly? suffice to say that there was a lot of hot air, a lot of insults, a lot of posturing and the opposition wisely decided to be heard but keeping it rather low profile compared to the zealous overexertion of chavismo in a deliberate ploy to provoke the opposition. Again, what else is new?

Yesterday I wrote that the reelection of Cabello meant that we would not likely have elections before March at the earliest, maybe as late as June or July. Or that actually there was an off chance that Chavez could survive and come back even on a wheel chair. And that it also meant that chavismo was getting ready to commit some constitutional violation as there is no indication whatsoever that Chavez will be in Caracas on January 10 (if he were to show up, which in an odd way would not totally surprising for me, it would confirm that chavismo is all about smoke and mirrors since they are unable to rule and solve people’s problems. But I digress).

Thus today degradation at the Assembly means that indeed chavismo has started to violate the Constitution and that the rule of law was never intended in the 1999 constitutional draft. How they are going to do that to make it look “legal” is something that to tell you the truth I care not to speculate on, sticking to my decision as of October 7 to become more of a bystander cum Cassandra. At any rate, newspaper headlines will be informing us within days of the modality.

However there is one thing that I can tell you for sure already: today’s disgraceful display is the classical, poster boy case of the insecure bully in the school yard. That is, the bully and its gang think that by screaming louder than all they may get to avoid challenge or sanctions.

The Devil’s Excrement looks at how Chavismo Seems To Be Taking The Wrong And Unconstitutional Path In Venezuela:

And while you could argue legally that Chávez can delay being sworn in, can be sworn by the Supreme Court, can be sworn in in Cuba, can be declared temporary unable to assume the Presidency, all of which are questionable from a legal point of view: About the only thing you can not possibly argue legally or in any other way, is that Nicolás Maduro can continue to be Vice-President on January 10th, but that seems to be what he is saying and how they plan to play it.

But this would be unconstitutional, because Maduro is named and removed by the President. There is no way to interpret or suggest that his nomination, or that of the Cabinet for that matter, can be extended beyond Jan. 10th. On Jan. 10th. a new Constitutional period begins, there is a reset. Reelection is not the continuation of a mandate, it is a new mandate and in Venezuela’s Constitution it has a new date for its beginning. Thus, for Nicolás Maduro to continue being Vice-President after Jan. 10th. unless Hugo Chávez is sworn in, would be absolutely illegal and a break in Venezuela’s Constitutional order. A coup, no matter how yo[u] try to spin it. A very clear one at that.

So far, the Cuban regime is orchestrating the Venezuelan transition; will the people of Venezuela let them get away with it?

UPDATE:
Death of Hugo Chavez could set off shock waves across region
The likelihood that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is close to death will pitch rivals against one another in a battle for power and oil riches, and trigger political shock waves across the region.

Venezuela After Chávez
Regardless of whether the president makes it to his inauguration, the angling to replace him has begun.

Linked by Maggie’s Notebook. Thank you!

Yesterday I was watching Empire of the Sun, which is a troubling movie in many levels (but not quite as troubling as JG Ballard’s other works), and the Welsh lullaby Suo Gân punctuates a key scene of the film.

Bryn Terfel performs my favorite version of Suo Gân. You can buy the MP3 from Amazon, but it was also used in this beautiful short film, The Dinner Guest by Joe Gleason, to great effect:

Here’s Bryn, with a piano accompanist,

Today is the Feast of the Epiphany. May God bless you and your family and loved ones.

I’m slightly under the weather, so blogging will resume sometime. Until then, here’s Yaya Tango

From the Vice-President and Court Jester in One, the inappropriate comment fest,

“You are so pretty. God love you, holy mackerel.”
This aside was to a brunette in a red dress, apparently there with bachelor Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.).

“Spread your legs — you’re gonna be frisked!”

Grilling indoors made easy!

You can get the pan through Amazon, and support this blog at the same time.

The power struggles in Venezuela are on, and Raul Castro and his cronies are stepping in:

Today’s Nuevo Herald reports that Cuba’s Communist regime is behind Venezuela’s transition. Under their plan, National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello would be interim president until a new election is called, with Nicolas Maduro, the current VP, as presidential candidate. Cabello will continue as National Assembly president, but with additional powers and influence. (You can read the whole thing here (in Spanish). La Patilla has more.)

At the same time, the Finance and Economics minister, Jorge Giordani, has been asked to stay, and to negotiate a grace period with China on debt payment. The objective is to issue more bonds, increase liquidity and bankroll more misiones for a year. Venezuela has been borrowing at credit card rates for quite a while.

Of course, Cuba would continue to get those Venezuelan oil shipments. One can’t help but wonder how far would 105,000 barrels of oil a day at full market value would go towards meeting Venezuela’s debt with China.

As readers of this blog well know, Venezuela is propping the Cuban Communist regime,

Raul Castro and his cronies aim to create in Venezuela “a politburo of sorts, a council that operates in consensus and will guarantee Chavismo’s stability as it unites likely heirs and rivals.”

By doing this, Raul is also perpetuating his iron grip on Cuba. Last June the Wall Street Journal pointed out,

Few analysts think a departure of Mr. Chávez would lead to political revolt in Havana that would threaten the Castros’ regime. But it might force Cuba to accelerate free-market reforms. The crisis of the 1990s forced Cuba to adopt limited free-market reforms to survive, including the first licenses for private restaurants. When times got better under Mr. Chávez, Fidel Castro rolled back the reforms.

“If Chávez were to kick the bucket, then the impetus toward reform would probably return because there wouldn’t be any other alternative,” said Arch Ritter, an economist specializing in Cuba at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Additionally, according to at least one analyst, Control of the Venezuelan government implies control of the largest natural gas reserves in Latin America and the largest deposit of oil in the world.

Venezuela’s neighbor, Brazil, is watching the action, and Dilma Rousseff has appealed for Venezuelans to follow their constitution. As you may recall, Venezuela joined Mercosur at a summit headed by Rousseff but has yet to adopt its tariffs and rules.

For now, my friend M. put it well, “the Castros have taken control [of Venezuela] without firing a shot!”

What about Chavez’s health, you ask? I don’t expect anything other than rumors and leaks until January 10. Venezuelan blogger Daniel expects Epiphany on January 5 (tomorrow).

RELATED,
Chavez Will Leave Behind An Economic Crisis of Historic Proportions

Post re-edited to correct code.

UPDATE,
Richard Fernandez looks at Venezuela.

Cross-posted at Liberty Unyielding.

Proceed with caution to the panty-dropping pantry,