Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Brown continues to underperform, but Mandel hasn't really gained traction. It's barely a tossup right now, and unless there is a late break toward Republicans, it is hard to see the Mandel pulling this off.

10/15/2012 -- Brown still has the lead, but he is under 50 percent, and Mandel continues to hang around. Brown has the edge, but this race really could go either way.

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The Buckeye State is a microcosm of the country as a whole.  It contains everything: a slice of Appalachia in the southeast, farmland in the northwest, decaying industrial centers and new growth cities. For much of the past few decades, it has been a few points more Republican than the rest of the country, including 2008 when it went for Barack Obama by three points fewer than Obama's national average. The Republicans it has produced have been conservative, but they have generally been of the establishment-oriented sort who have substantial breaks with the conservative orthodoxy, like Mike DeWine and George Voinovich.

DeWine was defeated handily by liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown in 2006 -- a bad Republican year.  Brown has cut a very liberal profile in Washington, yet his approval ratings have held up fairly well in this swing state.  His opponent is state Treasurer Josh Mandel, a 33-year-old boy wonder of Republican politics. 

Mandel has proved remarkably adept at fundraising, and Brown is probably too liberal for his state.  But Mandel is no moderate, and his youthful looks may cause some to question whether he is really up for the job of senator at such an early stage in his career.  Brown is a skilled politician, whose district was spared redistricting in 2000 because Gov. Bob Taft was afraid Brown would run against him.  Even if the national situation deteriorates significantly for the Democrats, he will probably retain an edge.