The Man Who Mistook His Wife For A Beche-de-mer

Posted on January 4, 2013 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The atoll of Ontong Java, in the Solomon Islands, is unusual for a few reasons. First, it’s huge, one of the largest atolls in the South Pacific. Second, unlike the main islands of the Solomon Islands with their Melanesian populations, the people of Ontong Java are Polynesian. The third reason is that they have been able to maintain their traditional fisheries of beche-de-mer and trocus shell by following locally-designed conservation methods.

ge ontong java pelau luaniuaFigure 1. Ontong Java atoll. There are two main towns, Pelau and Luaniua.

That’s why I was surprised to see an article in the Solomon Star newspaper that starts out (emphasis mine):

$2m pay-out queried

FRIDAY, 04 JANUARY 2013 04:49

A CONTROVERSIAL $2 million was paid out by the government to the Malaita Outer Islands (MOI) people without Cabinet approval, sources say.

According to government sources, the money was paid out by the Ministry of Environment & Climate Change to the Luaniua and Pelau community to facilitate climate change programmes.

However, the source said after some disagreements within Cabinet, a cabinet paper was withdrawn following confusions because the amount was not enough and whether the money was for climate change or to buy beche-de-mer.

Can’t tell climate change from beche-de-mer? Reminds me of the old joke about watermelon and rat poison. The joke is, someone asks you “Do you know the difference between watermelon and rat poison?”. When you answer “No”, the person says “Well, I’m sure as heck not sending you to town for watermelon”.

So how could you mistake a beche-de-mer purchase for a climate change project? And what is a beche-de-mer when it’s at home, anyhow? As you might imagine, it’s a very South Pacific kind of story, with a huge surfeit of inconsistencies and uncertainties, and a correspondingly great paucity of empirically verifiable facts. What’s not to like?

Continue reading →

Posted in climate cash | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Counting Sunspots and Sunspot Inflation

Posted on January 4, 2013 by

Guest post by Dr. Leif Svalgaard

The official sunspot number is issued by SIDC in Brussels http://sidc.be/sunspot-data/ . The [relative] sunspot number was introduced by Rudolf Wolf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Wolf  in the middle of the 19th century. He called it the ‘relative’ number because it is rather like an index instead of the actual number of spots on the Sun. Spots occur in groups [which we today call ‘active regions’] and Wolf realized that the birth of a new group was a much more significant event than the emergence of just a single new spot within a group, so he designed his index, R, [for any given day] to be a weighted sum of the number of spots, S, and the number of groups, G, giving the groups a weight of 10: R = S + 10*G. The number of 10 was chosen because on average a group contains about 10 spots, and also because it is a convenient number to multiply by.

Continue reading →

Posted in solar | 43 Comments

The Dr. David Viner moment we’ve all been waiting for…a new snow record

Posted on January 4, 2013 by

WUWT readers surely recall this most often quoted prediction about snow. From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

It seems despite the sage advice from that East Anglia CRU scientist, a new record for snowfall has been set for the month of December.

From the Rutgers University Snow Lab, we have this graph for the Northern Hemisphere for all months of December. December 2012 was a clear winner.

Continue reading →

Posted in records, snowfall, weather | Tagged , , , , , | 107 Comments

Neutrons and the 1970s cooling period

Posted on January 4, 2013 by

Note: the original title Solar Neutrons and the 1970s cooling period was unintentionally misleading as Dr. Svalgaard points out in comments:

What produces Solar Neutrons?
the title of the post is misleading. The cosmic rays are protons, not neutrons, and are not produced by the Sun, but by supernovae in the Galaxy. The ‘neutrons’ are produced in the Earth’s atmosphere when cosmic ray protons collide with air. Neutron Monitors can detect those ‘secondary’ neutrons.

I meant to convey the modulation effect of the sun’s magnetic field on cosmic rays, and hence neutrons. So I’ve truncated the title to: Neutrons and the 1970s cooling period – Anthony

Guest post by David Archibald

The world’s most eminent climatologist was Professor Hubert Lamb, who founded the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. Professor Lamb was guided by the principle that if a climatologist is to project future climates, he must understand what has happened in the past. In that vein, to understand the cool period coming post solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24, it is apposite to examine the last period of cooling that the Earth experienced. This was the 1970s cooling period. The CIA report on climate written in August, 1974, A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems, summarised it in these terms:

“Since the late 1960s, a number of foreboding climatic predictions have appeared in various climatic, meteorological and geological periodicals, consistently following one of two themes.

· A global climatic change was underway.

· This climatic change would create worldwide agricultural failures in the 1970s.

Most meteorologists argued that they could not find any justifications for these predictions. The climatologists who argued for the proposition could not provide definitive causal explanations for their hypothesis. Early in the 1970s a series of adverse climatic anomalies occurred:

Continue reading →

Posted in Agriculture, solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 82 Comments

Does The Effect From The Cause Affect The Cause?

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

There’s been a recent paper claiming a long-term correlation between CO2 and sea level, discussed here at WUWT. The paper implies that CO2 controls temperature and thus indirectly sea level. I thought I might follow up the comments on that thread by looking at what the ice core records actually tell us about variations in CO2. There is plenty of dispute about the ice core records, but I don’t want to touch on that here, that’s a separate discussion. Instead, let me take the ice core records as given and see where that leads us. Figure 1 shows the Vostok ice core CO2 and temperature variations.

vostok co2 and temperatureFigure 1. Temperature and CO2 variations as per the cited data sources. Temperature variations have been divided by 2, as discussed in the text. Graph ends at 1950, most recent CO2 data is from about 2,300 years ago. Maximum temperature during the previous interglacial was about a degree and a half warmer than 1950. Photograph shows that  Photo Source http://dxing.at-communication.com/en/ri1anc_vostok-base_antarctica/

These two data traces, unfortunately, are from two different records. The temperature record contains almost ten times the number of data points as the CO2 record (~ 3,100 vs ~360). Accordingly, I have smoothed the temperature data (17-point Gaussian) and then interpolated it to match the dates of the CO2 data points.

Continue reading →

Posted in Antarctic, climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 118 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: The Weather Channel on crack

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

No, really, they must have been on crack when they came up with this one. I have no other explanation that works.

First a primer. What is “Space Weather”?  Wikipedia (agreed not the best source but humor me, at least they understand the basics) says that it is:

Space weather is the concept of changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space or the space from the Sun’s atmosphere to the Earth’s atmosphere. It is distinct from the concept of weather within the Earth’s planetary atmosphere (troposphere and stratosphere).

You can see what that’s all about at NASA’s spaceweather.com

Note the “distinct from the concept of weather”.

Now, try to wrap your mind around that and this image below and figure out how they managed to get space weather to burn down the Empire State Building. Continue reading →

Posted in GLOC, ridiculae, The Weather Channel | Tagged , , , , | 105 Comments

UAH Global Temperature Report: 2012 was 9th warmest

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

By Phillip Gentry, UAH

Globally, 2012 was ninth warmest of the past 34 years; In the U.S., 2012 sets a new record high temperature Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary)

2012 LT Anomaly

Global composite temp.: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year averagefor December.

Continue reading →

Posted in climate data | 130 Comments

AGW Bombshell? A new paper shows statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic forcing

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

graphic_esd_cover_homepage[1]From the journal Earth System Dynamics billed as “An Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union” comes this paper which suggests that the posited AGW forcing effects simply isn’t statistically significant in the observations, but other natural forcings are.

“…We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.”

This is a most interesting paper, and potentially a bombshell, because they have taken virtually all of the significant observational datasets (including GISS and BEST) along with solar irradiance from Lean and Rind, and CO2, CH4, N2O, aerosols, and even water vapor data and put them all to statistical tests (including Lucia’s favorite, the unit root test) against forcing equations. Amazingly, it seems that they have almost entirely ruled out anthropogenic forcing in the observational data, but allowing for the possibility they could be wrong, say:

“…our rejection of AGW is not absolute; it might be a false positive, and we cannot rule out the possibility that recent global warming has an anthropogenic footprint. However, this possibility is very small, and is not statistically significant at conventional levels.”

I expect folks like Tamino (aka Grant Foster) and other hotheaded statistics wonks will begin an attack on why their premise and tests are no good, but at the same time I look for other less biased stats folks to weigh in and see how well it holds up. My sense of this is that the authors of Beenstock et al have done a pretty good job of ruling out ways they may have fooled themselves. My thanks to Andre Bijkerk and Joanna Ballard for bringing this paper to my attention on Facebook.

The abstract and excerpts from the paper, along with link to the full PDF follows.

Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming

M. Beenstock1, Y. Reingewertz1, and N. Paldor2
1Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel
2Fredy and Nadine Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

 Abstract.  Continue reading →

Posted in climate data, Science | Tagged , , | 149 Comments

Nigel Lawson Wins Climate Policy Bet

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

From the GWPF

Oliver Letwin, David Cameron’s chief policy adviser, has conceded defeat in a £100 climate policy bet with Nigel Lawson which they had agreed four and a half years ago.

Towards the end of a climate debate between the two Conservative heavy-weights in the July 2008 issue of Standpoint, the following exchange took place:

Oliver Letwin: Nigel can’t know whether there is going to be a successor to Kyoto.
Nigel Lawson: Well, look, there’ll be an international agreement in the sense that there will be platitudes. The acid test is: will there be an agreement to have binding cutbacks for all participants on their carbon emissions? Instead of arguing about it, we could have a wager on it.
Oliver Lewtin: I’d be very happy to have a wager, and I offer you a £100 bet that before either of us is dead, whichever is the first — our estates can pay — we will see a very substantial agreement on carbon reduction.

 

Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 33 Comments

Paleo sea level and CO2

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

From the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (UK)

New study documents the natural relationship between CO2 concentrations and sea level

By comparing reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and sea level over the past 40 million years, researchers based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton have found that greenhouse gas concentrations similar to the present (almost 400 parts per million) were systematically associated with sea levels at least nine metres above current levels.

The study determined the ‘natural equilibrium’ sea level for CO2 concentrations ranging between ice-age values of 180 parts per million and ice-free values of more than 1,000 parts per million.

Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon dioxide, paleoclimatology, sea level | Tagged | 90 Comments

Al buys Al

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

irony-meter[1]Middle East “Big Oil” funded media outlet buys Al Gore’s CURRENT TV with plans to infiltrate offer the English Al Jazeera channel into American homes -  my Irony Meter pegged.

Will it be the “All Al” channel now?

Some details…  Continue reading →

Posted in Al Gore, GLOC | Tagged , , , | 180 Comments

Nominations are open for the 2013 weblog awards

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

Bloggies_nomination_2013

It is that time again, and after winning this two years in a row, can WUWT make it to “Hall of Fame” status by winning it a third year? Hard to say, but if we do, that will put us out of the running forever, since we cannot ever win the science category again if WUWT wins three times.

I’m going to ask for reader help again this year, and it is easy for you to submit a nomination. Continue reading →

Posted in Announcements | Tagged , , | 46 Comments

Law of unintended consequences – fuel tax designed to lower air pollution actually creates more air pollution

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

Another application of the Grecian government formula blows up in their faces.

Thick smog covers the city of Athens on June 19, 2008. (AFP)

From EuroNews:

Smog hits Athens as cash-strapped residents choose fire over fuel

Bad news for austerity-stricken Greeks is also proving to be bad news for the environment – specifically the air quality in Athens.

Wood has soared in popularity, with many of the city’s residents using it to heat their houses, after an increase in duty has seen the price of heating oil double in two years.

Continue reading →

Posted in aerosols, Government idiocy | Tagged , , , , | 95 Comments

New paper demonstrates that climate responds to short and long-term changes in solar activity

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

(Via the Hockey Schtick) A new peer reviewed paper published in The Holocene finds a significant link between solar activity and climate over the past 1000 years. According to the authors:

“Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11 yr solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity and in particular solar minima.”

The authors also find “a link between the 11 yr solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around 1960″ and that:

“Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity.”

Continue reading →

Posted in solar | Tagged , , , | 142 Comments

Why social media is important in the #climatewars

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

I noted today that WUWT just passed 6000 followers on Twitter, and 15,000 followers of the blog by email. About the same time, WUWT reached 5000 likes on Facebook. A few years ago, I never much thought social media was worth much, but seeing how Michael Mann and Bill McKibben have been using it to their advantage, my view on the importance of it has changed.

For them, social networking is glue for the cause, it keeps their base in line and comforted with missives they want to hear. A good example is this recent tweet from Bill McKibben to a follower due to this WUWT story where I call out McKibben for some nonfactual regurgitation, and mention the reaction of one his followers who is too mentally cocooned to look for herself. She gets comforting words from the leader of 350.org:  Continue reading →

Posted in media | Tagged , , , | 70 Comments

Report: ‘Forget global warming, Alaska is headed for an ice age’

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

Alex DeMarban

Alaska_temps

Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation’s icebox is getting even icier. Continue reading →

Posted in climate data, Climate News | Tagged , | 59 Comments

Happy New Year – Kyoto Is Dead

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

Russia Abandons Kyoto Protocol

From Dr. Benny Peiser at The GWPF

Moscow won’t join the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol, which starts on January 1st 2013. Russia decided to discontinue its participation in the protocol because the world’s major producers of greenhouse gases – the United States, China and India – are still refusing to commit themselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. –Voice of Russia, 31 December 2012

Continue reading →

Posted in Climate News | Tagged | 38 Comments

The Cost in Human Energy

Posted on January 2, 2013 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

For a while, I taught a course in human-powered machinery for the Peace Corps. You know, bicycle powered generators, treadle powered pumps, that kind of thing. One of the very rough rules of thumb regarding human energy is that an adult human can put out about a hundred watts on an ongoing, constant all-day basis. If you were to hook up a bicycle to a generator you could generate a kilowatt-hour every day … if you were in good shape and you put in a ten-hour day. Sounds like work to me.

bicycle powered can crusherFigure 1. Human-powered aluminum can crusher, Burning Man 2012.

I got to thinking about this number, one kilowatt-hour’s worth of electricity for a long ten-hour day’s work, in the context of the discussion about energy costs. Some people think raising energy costs to discourage CO2 production is a good thing. I say that raising energy costs, whether to discourage CO2 or for any other reason, trades a certain present loss for a very doubtful future gain. As such, it is an extremely bad idea. Here’s why:

Continue reading →

Posted in energy | Tagged , , | 194 Comments

Jellyfish and Global Warming – another busted alarm

Posted on January 1, 2013 by

WUWT readers may recall seeing stories like these in the past. Warming wailers like Bill McKibben, who unthinkingly regurgitated this bogus Jellyfish news in op-eds like this one, take note.

A new new peer reviewed study shows that once again, these wild claims are falsely attributed to “global warming”. Instead, these temporary blooms are part of a natural cyclic global oscillation. Further, the researches find no trend saying

“…there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish.”

The stories, like the one above, are products of nothing more than increased awareness due to more eyes on the sea. We see the same sort of reporting bias effect in tornadoes, now that we have storm chasers and Doppler radar.

Here’s the Press release and PNAS paper:  Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, oceans | Tagged , , , , | 32 Comments

The age old battle of the thermostat – the ‘Goredian’ Knot of global temperature

Posted on January 1, 2013 by

People send me stuff.

Reader Kurt writes:

I just found your excellent website and have book marked it and will visit it often for updates. One simple question the global warm-mongers have never been able to answer is… Continue reading →

Posted in global cooling, global warming, Little Ice Age | Tagged , , , , , , | 198 Comments