Kiwiblog

This half day walk must rank of one of the most spectacular in New Zealand. I can not recommend it highly enough.

Even the drive to the starting point is superbly scenic. You drive for around an hour from Wanaka into the Matukituki Valley. Most of the 54 km road is unsealed and you cross around half a dozen fords, but they can be done without a 4WD. The drive through the valley is beautiful, with scores of waterfalls.

You park at Raspberry Flat and head off along the West Matukituki River.

You walk through farmland for around 15 minutes.

Then you have the swing bridge over the West Matukituki River. It is rather bouncy!

There is a fairly steep ascent, and then you get a nice view of the Matukituki Valley as you fork off it. Those who are doing overnight tramps continue up the valley.

A lovely backdrop at the rest bench, where Earnest Girl and I take a break.

You then head along next to the Rob Roy Stream, and again reasonably steep climb in places, but not too bad. You ascend around 400 metres in total. As you can see, a few challenges along the way.

If that rock came down, you’d need DNA to identify you!

They may call it a stream, but it is pretty strong as the glacier water flows down it. You spend most of your time next to the stream.

Almost at the top, this is the view of where you have come from.

Then you see the bottom of the Rob Roy Glacier. You end up less than 100 metres from it, and the ice is 15 metres or so thick I would say. Despite being so high up, it wasn’t too cold – even in t-shirt and shorts.

One of the waterfalls at the top.

The end of the track, with some information on the glacier.

One of the Keas that hangs around there.

Our group about to start the champagne lunch to celebrate making it up there.

Rob Roy Glacier

EveryTrail – Find the best hikes in California and beyond

Above is the map of the trail. It is 10 kms in total, and up took around 90 minutes and down around 75 minutes. Again, it is a stunning walk, and must be one of the best in NZ. We all had a great time.

Nevil Gibson writes in NBR:

New research by economists Siwan Anderson and Debraj Ray estimates that in India, more than 2m women are missing in a given year.

The economists found that roughly 12% of the missing women disappear at birth, 25% die in childhood, 18% at the reproductive ages, and 45% at older ages.

They found that women died more from “injuries” in a given year than while giving birth – injuries, they say, “appear to be indicator of violence against women.”

Deaths from fire-related incidents, they say, is a major cause – each year more than 100,000 women are killed by fires in India. The researchers say many cases could be linked to demands over a dowry leading to women being set on fire. Research also found a large number of women died of heart diseases.

These findings point to life-long neglect of women in India.

The scale of the abuse is simply staggering. If you adjusted for the respective population sizes, that would be like 20,000 women a year just going missing in NZ. it would be 500 women a year being killed by fires.

It sounds like this gang rape murder may be the catalyst that leads to actual significant change. Let’s hope so.

Stuff reports:

A proposal to shift to a 10-year census could seriously affect Christchurch’s recovery, critics say.

Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson said in July 2011 the Government was considering holding the census once every decade.

Currently conducted every five years, the census helps determine electoral boundaries and funding for services like district health boards, schools and the police.

I’m not sure how a comment made 18 months ago is a news story today, unless there has been some more recent development.

Labour earthquake recovery spokeswoman Lianne Dalziel said Christchurch was already living with the consequences of a delayed census.

“I’m not criticising the delay that we’ve had because obviously it was done for the right reasons. We would have got a very distorted view if it had gone ahead in 2011.”

However, delaying the census by two years did cause problems, particularly for this year’s local body elections, she said.

“The election will be based on boundaries that aren’t where people are living. I think that’s going to be a bit of a shake-up,” she said.

“I’d really want to see a good case put up for a delay. We’ve had the schools shake-up landed on the city without the benefit of knowledge about where the settlement patterns are going to fall and that’s wrong.”

Labour statistics spokesman Raymond Huo said a 10-yearly census would reduce costs to Statistics New Zealand, but it was “not that straightforward”.

“I think [Williamson's] idea is half-baked at best because it’s not that simple,” he said.

“The key drivers are cost constraints and the demand for more frequent detailed and accurate statistics. Particularly for the Christchurch area, we need more frequent and accurate data.”

I agree with Dalziel and Huo that a move from five to 10 years is not desirable. I’m a bit biased as I am a frequent and large user of census data, but I think it would impact many areas of activity.

Sophie Speer describes her experience:

In travel, some factors, like the weather, are uncontrollable. But after 12 hours being messed around by Jetstar on Wednesday, it was the management of controllable factors that put them to shame.

Flying into Wellington when a severe wind warning had been issued must test the mettle of even the most experienced pilot. So when, after extreme turbulence left me sweating and clutching the armrest while staring out at the white caps of the Wellington south coast, I was grateful that our pilot aborted and started ascending.

We returned to Auckland, where hundreds of passengers were left confused, frustrated and increasingly irate with an airline which made us feel like a mere inconvenience.

I was rescheduled on to an already delayed flight due to leave at 9.05pm, leaving me hours to roam the airport. At the time I thought I was one of the lucky ones. Without checked baggage, I got straight to the front of the queue while others had to first collect their bags, then queue up.

As the day wore on and the queue failed to shrink, tempers ran high as people jostled for space and priority. At the gate, the security staff in charge of X-raying our bags copped the most flak, simply because they were the only members of staff around for anyone to talk to. Not once did a member of Jetstar make their presence known to listen, explain or even just apologise.

This is the key difference – customer service. All airlines have delays. But when they happen, you have to have a culture and staff who will communicate with your customers about what is happening.

I live in Wellington, a city with a notorious track record for disrupted flights due to the weather. I accept that. What I could not tolerate was the lack of customer service, the lack of communication and the lack of empathy we received. Jetstar have probably lost the custom of many of those affected by the mess, myself included.

My written policy for speaking engagements is I will not accept bookings on Jetstar. They are too unreliable and seem unable to do basic customer service. To be fair to them, their Australian operations are pretty good – but somehow their initial DNA in NZ got contaminated and they have never recovered from it.

Stuff reports:

Call her the girl with no name.

A 15-year-old is suing the Icelandic state for the right to legally use the name given to her by her mother. The problem? Blaer, which means “light breeze” in Icelandic, is not on a list approved by the government.

Like a handful of other countries, including Germany and Denmark, Iceland has official rules about what a baby can be named.

In a country comfortable with a firm state role, most people don’t question the Personal Names Register, a list of 1,712 male names and 1,853 female names that fit Icelandic grammar and pronunciation rules and that officials maintain will protect children from embarrassment.

Parents can take from the list or apply to a special committee that has the power to say yea or nay.

How ridiculous. An approved list of names and a special committee that can decide on exceptions.

I’m not against the state having a power to refuse very offensive names that would harm a child, such as if someone tried to call their child “fuck me” or “bitch”. But the default position should be any name at all is allowed, unless judged harmful. Having a list of “approved” names is just bureaucratic nonsense.

On his thirtieth birthday, he bought a full-page advertisement that read, “From February 1, 2006, I hereby change my name to Curver Thoroddsen. I ask the nation, my friends and colleagues to respect my decision.”

“I can understand a clause to protect children from being named something like ‘Dog poo,’ but it is strange that an adult cannot change his name to what he truly wants,” he said.

Indeed.

Talking of names, DIA has the list of most popular names in 2012. Olivia and Jack No 1. Noah was No 10!

Olivia Wannan at Stuff reports:

New Zealanders will have their say on asset sales this year after a petition to force a referendum reached the 300,000 signatures needed, campaigners say.

Since April, a coalition including Grey Power, the Council of Trade Unions, the Green Party and Labour have been collecting signatures for the petition.

They need 10 per cent of all registered voters, or approximately 310,000 people, to sign to force a referendum.

Grey Power national president Roy Reid said the group had collected more than 340,000 signatures, allowing for a percentage of signatures that did not meet the requirements under the Citizen Initiated Referendum Act.

It was inevitable they would get the signatures once the Greens used taxpayer funding to hire people to collect signatures. It makes an absolute travesty of a process which is meant to be about citizens initiating a referendum, not about taxpayer funded parliamentary parties purchasing one with taxpayer funding.

The hypocrisy of Labour and Greens in arranging the referendum is quite immense, when you consider their response to the last CIR – on the anti-smacking law. A massive 85% of New Zealanders voted that a light parental smack for correctional purposes should not be a criminal offence, yet they voted against a bill which would have done exactly that a few weeks after the 85% result.

Now you can have a legitimate view that parliamentary parties should vote on the basis of the policies they were elected on, not on the basis of referenda. That is my view for example. But it is hypocrisy to promote a referendum on one issue, and insist the referendum result must be followed – while you continue to oppose implementing other referendum results.

So at some stage in 2013 there will be a referendum. It will achieve nothing but posturing as the policies a Government gets elected on out-trump a non-binding referendum. The end result will just be a few million wasted on a referendum.

In Queenstown I was staying at the Lake Hayes Estate, which is of course next to Lake Hayes. I’ve heard about the lovely walk around the lake, but the weather looked like I wouldn’t get to do it. However on my last day there, the rain stopped around 7 pm, so I headed out. It was around 15 minutes to the lake, and I did the circuit in around 90 minutes. The last quarter I jogged as I heard thunder and the rain started again.

On the path down to the lake, a paddock of deer.

You then start off at lake level on a nice path.

Then as you go up, you get a pretty great lake view. Bear in mind this is in the evening.

The path winds around the hills.

Another great lake view.

Then after you head down, you circle around through nice grass areas.

A very old house on the lakefront.

And a much more modern one. A lakeside house would be very cool. Many of them have boats out front.

And finally a bush walk path back to the beginning.

A very serene walk, if you are in the area.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqbw_3mEetU&w=560&h=315]

Well done to Rodney MP Mark Mitchell for winning the bull riding contest at the Warkworth Rodeo. I doubt he’ll lose the parliamentary bull riding crown any time soon!

Hat Tip: Whale

The headline says it all. David Leggat calls it the worst performance has has ever seen.

Seems dumping that Ross Taylor as captain hasn’t worked out so well!

The Herald reports with a headline:

Road risks in spotlight as tourists tally 400 crashes

Sounds bad. But in the story:

Overseas drivers were involved in more than 400 crashes on New Zealand roads last year, and failure to keep left, poor handling and fatigue the leading causes of deadly crashes.

The number is down on previous years – in line with a wider trend of a reducing death toll on New Zealand roads – but the number of foreign drivers involved in multi-victim crashes has prompted calls for tourists to make themselves familiar with the country’s “unique driving challenges”.

Three American tourists were killed in a crash near Turangi in May, and four Argentines died in a head-on crash in July in the central North Island.

 So the concern is over a crash in May and a crash in July. Now all avoidable crashes are lamentable, but are two multi-victim crashes involving foreign drivers significant? What I would like to know is how many multi-victim crashes there are a year, and what the rate of such crashes is per number of drivers (local and foreign) or even better per number of kms driven.

Downward trend
Overseas drivers and accidents

2012: 406 accidents, 15 fatal

2011: 559 accidents, 15 fatal

2010: 617 accidents, 20 fatal

2009: 704 accidents, 21 fatal

A reduction in accidents from 704 to 406 would seem to be a cause for celebration. Now the article said this is in line with an overall reduction in the road toll. But are they dropping at the same rate. Let’s look at the number of overall crashes.

The number of accidents by tourists dropped 42% over three years. The number of total accidents from 2009 to 2011 (2012 data not yet out but the road toll suggests not lower than 2011) dropped from 11,125 to 9,804 or 11.8%.

Another way to look at it is in 2009, foreign drivers were involved in 6.3% of road crashes, dropping to 5.7% in 2011 and if total crashes in 2012 is same as 2011, dropping further to 4.1%.

What I’d find interesting again is what proportion of drivers are foreign or tourists? If it is more than 4.1% then that may suggest they are safer drivers than NZers!

Reuters reports:

An Afghan insurgent warlord has branded Prince Harry a shameless, drunken “jackal” out to kill innocent Afghans while on duty as an attack helicopter pilot for NATO forces in the country. …

“It seems that some British authorities still dream about the times of the 18th and 19th century and they want their ambassador to be treated like a viceroy and their prince to go out in uniform to hunt for human beings and play the Satanic role that they used to play in the past,” Hekmatyar said in translated comments.

He said Britain had gained nothing by entering an “unjustified, useless but cruel conflict” to please its ally, the United States, speaking in a recorded video response to questions put by the paper.

“The British prince comes to Afghanistan to kill innocent Afghans while he is drunk. He wants to hunt down Mujahideen with his helicopter rockets without any shame.

“But he does not understand this simple fact that the hunting of Afghan lions and eagles is not that easy. Jackals cannot hunt lions,” Hekmatyar added. …

The US State Department lists Hekmatyar as a “terrorist” for supporting attacks by Islamist Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents, although he became a hero to many Afghans while leading mujahideen fighters against the Soviet occupation of the Central Asian country in the 1980s.

So a terrorist disapproves of Prince Harry’s deployment. This is of course globally important news.

The Herald reports:

Last year New Zealand recorded its second lowest road toll in 50 years, with the deaths of young people significantly stemmed, police say.

At midnight, the provisional road toll stood at 306 – slightly higher than the previous year’s record low of 284 deaths.

While disappointing to go up, the 2011 figure was the lowest figure ever, being a drop of 100 on the year before. The last six years have been:

• 2007 – 421
• 2008 – 366
• 2009 – 384
• 2010 – 375
• 2011 – 284
• 2012 – 306

Stuff reports:

The US Senate has passed legislation early New Year’s Day to neutralize a fiscal cliff combination of across-the-board tax increases and spending cuts with a lopsided 89-8 vote.

Senate passage set the stage for a final showdown in the House of Representatives, where a vote was expected later Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday, which raises tax rates on wealthy Americans.

The Senate vote came hours after the White House reached a compromise deal with Senate Republicans.

The spending cuts are delayed just two months. The Republican compromised significantly on the revenue side (as did the Democrats to a degree). The real crunch will be whether the Democrats can agree to reduce some of the spending the Government is unable to pay for.

The Washington Post looks at the winners and losers to date:

Winners

• Joe Biden – may set him up for 2016
• Mitch McConnell – saved the Republicans from being blamed for tax increases for everyone
• Obama – got a deal he can sign

Losers

• John Boehner – couldn’t get the votes from his own team
• Obama – his last minute campaign rally alienated votes he needs

The House has yet to vote on the deal, but the massive vote in the Senate suggests it should pass the House fairly comfortable. I’d guess 80% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans may vote for it.

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Arrowtown

EveryTrail – Find the best hikes in California and beyond

Went to Arrowtown and Glenorchy yesterday. Arrowtown is lovely and did a quick 5 km walk alongside the Arrow River, which is above. Lots of people out enjoying it.

Then headed back to Queenstown and down around Lake Wakatipu to Glenorchy.

A sunbathing platform out from the wharf.

The view across Lake Wakatipu.

Glenorchy itself. Not a lot to do here, but a few cafes and some great views. Worth a visit.

The Greens want NZ to print more money, on their orders. Labour wants the Reserve Bank to print more money – but on its own initiative under new targets they will set. So who are the wnners and losers from quantitative easing. The Telegraph reports:

Saga, the pensioner lobby group, has claimed that QE has contributed to a 9pc drop in real incomes among the over-50s since early 2008. And the Bank has conceded that the beneficiaries of QE have been the investor classes while those relying on income have suffered

So the victims of QE are pensioners and employees basically. So much for the left standing up for the working class!

So who does well out of QE?

Last year saw a resurgence of some of the biggest and best-known hedge funds in the world, according to the latest figures collected by HSBC.

Crispin Odey, the boss of Odey Asset Management, generated 26.6pc returns at the end of November, turning his flagship fund around from a heavy loss of 21pc in 2011. Lansdowne Partners, the London-based fund that correctly forecast the banking crisis in 2007, made 16pc on its $6bn equity diversified fund and 14.8pc on its global financial fund.

So QE is great for hedge funds. The currency speculators will also have a field day from speculating on exactly how many new dollars a left Government would print.

But how about aspiring home owners? Labour tells us they want more affordable housing.

The Bank has pumped £375bn of money into the economy since the start of its QE programme in 2009, while central banks in America and Japan have unleashed hundreds of billions of dollars in a radical global bid to jump-start the economy. The effect has been to boost the price of assets, from equities to houses, and reduce gilt yields, according to analysis by the Bank.

As someone who already owns a home and has a few equities, I could do very well out of QE. But couples saving for their first home are likely to get clobbered as their income will be devalued, and house prices will increase.

It looks like there will be an agreement to avoid the so called fiscal cliff. That is good in the short term for Americans, but the deal looks like it will do little to reduce the deficit – which is why such an unpalatable fiscal cliff was designed – to force the President and Congress to make their own steps to reduce the deficit.

AP reports:

The contours of a deal to avert the ‘fiscal cliff’ are emerging early today (NZ time), with Democrats and Republicans agreeing to raise tax rates on family income over US$450,000 a year, increase the estate tax rate and extend unemployment benefits for one year, officials familiar with the negotiations said.

That side of the deal seems like a reasonable compromise on both sides. In reality come 1 January all the Bush tax cuts had expired anyway, so for the Republicans they are no longer voting for any tax increases – they are just voting for what tax cuts to reinstate. There is a significant difference. They can not get the numbers to reinstate all the tax cuts – so the tax side of the compromise seems okay.

But with a midnight deadline rapidly approaching, both sides were at an impasse over whether to put off automatic, across-the-board spending cuts set to take effect on January 1, and if so, how to pay for that. Democrats want to put off the cuts for one year and offset the so-called sequester with unspecified revenue.

The Republicans are proposing just a three month deferral of the spending cuts. I think a year delay means they will never get agreement on a sustainable plan to reduce spending, so the US Government can live within its means. They need the pressure of a looming deadline.

Greg Ansley at NZ Herald reports on some interesting Australian views during the US and NZ stand off on nuclear ships.

“Several Nato and Asean countries have said to us that, while disturbed by New Zealand’s policies, they regard the Americans as having over-reacted and as running the risk of creating a ‘laager’ mentality in New Zealand,” it said.

This is basically correct. The NZ policy was wrong, yet the US reaction was over the top.

Canberra did not accept New Zealand’s belief that it was not affected by a global superpower threat and that regional security did not require a nuclear capability.

With more than 40 per cent of its combat ships nuclear-powered – and “almost all would assuredly be nuclear-capable” – the US could not be expected to maintain two navies, one for global security and another for regional stability.

A fair view.

The Cabinet was reminded that the (former) Soviet Union was trying to gain a foothold in the Pacific and had turned New Zealand’s policies to its propaganda advantage.

The USSR was delighted by the anti-nuclear policy. It weakened the western alliance, and gave them hope the West would crumble. As it turned out, it was the USSR which crumbled as it was unable to keep pace with the West.

I’m in Wanaka from 2nd to 5th or 6th of January and it seems Wanaka is one of those places easier to get into than out of.

They have no rental car agencies, and there is only one flight to Christchurch a day, costing $400!

There is a bus service to Christchurch, but I have a loathing of travelling on long distance buses.

So the purpose of the post is to see if any readers happen to be travelling from Wanaka to Christchurch around the 5th  to 7th of January and have a spare seat?

Failing that my Wanaka hostess has said she will lend me a piece of cardboard and a mini-skirt so I can show some leg off and try and hitch a lift!  think we can agree that is a scenario best avoided.

David Fisher at NZ Herald reports:

David Bain’s first defence lawyer has emailed Justice Minister Judith Collins to say that, in his opinion, his former client had made a “damning admission” which in his view “shatters any suggestion of innocence”.

The email was sent by disbarred lawyer Michael Guest to the Minister of Justice on September 10, just weeks after she received a report from retired Canadian Justice Ian Binnie saying Mr Bain was “factually innocent” and should be compensated.

Mr Guest’s email became a factor in the decision to have Justice Binnie’s report peer reviewed. On September 26, Mrs Collins wrote to retired Justice Robert Fisher saying Mr Guest’s email, concerns from the police and her own issues “led me to consider that I need to proceed to this peer review”.

Mrs Collins confirmed the link to the Herald, saying it added to concerns raised by herself, the police and the Crown Law Office.

Mr Guest claimed in his email he was prompted to contact Mrs Collins after reading reports Mr Bain had been found “innocent”.

In a personal email, Mr Guest expressed his view to Mrs Collins which stated “finding that [Mr Bain] is innocent is not a correct conclusion”.

Mr Guest claimed he was freed from client confidentiality because of an earlier waiver by Mr Bain. He said he was concerned because neither he nor his co-counsel had been interviewed by Justice Binnie as part of the inquiry.

I would have thought that was sensible to do, even if you didn’t treat his views as determinative.

The claims focus on whether Mr Bain was wearing his mother’s glasses the weekend before the murders – the frame was found in his room and a lens in his brother Stephen’s room.

Mr Guest said he was told by Mr Bain he had been wearing the glasses. He said Justice Binnie could have found a way to take a different view on the evidence about the glasses “but, in my opinion, it shatters any suggestion of innocence”.

There seem to be two main possibilities. Either David Bain told the truth to his lawyer Guest, and later lied about it.

Or David Bain has always denied wearing the glasses the weekend before the murders, and his former lawyer has invented the story.

I understand this story was first reported on Monday in Truth. Their website may have more details later today.

Truth has put online the documents released under the OIA. The letter from Police listing the errors in Binnie’s report is very detailed.

Elle Hunt at Stuff reports:

Travel websites have reported significant growth in searches and bookings for New Zealand this month, after the worldwide release of The Hobbit.

The flight search website Sky scanner.com recorded a 102 per cent increase in worldwide searches for flights to New Zealand this month compared with December 2011, including a 117 per cent spike in searches for flights to Wellington.

The foreign currency exchange group Travelex has reported a 26 per cent increase in pre-orders for New Zealand dollars compared with December 2011.

Air New Zealand bookings from the United States were reported to have nearly doubled on the day before the November 28 world premiere in Wellington, and increased by a third in Japan after a Hobbit promotion there.

Excellent. Let me tell you that travel industry people in Queenstown still rage about how certain groups and individuals tried to sabotage The Hobbit. And no I don’t bring the issue up.

And The Hobbit continues to dominate at the box office. Total revenue to date has been US$686 million. It currently makes up 38% of all box office revenue in the United States.

So who do people think will win the Halberg Awards? The finalists are:

Sportswoman of the Year:

• Lisa Carrington (Canoeing)
• Valerie Adams (Athletics)
• Lydia Ko (Golf)
• Sarah Walker (BMX)

My heart says Lisa Carrington but my head says Lydia Ko. Golf is a more universal sport than canoeing, and being the top ranked amateur at age 15 is amazing. All four nominees are worthy finalists.

Sportsman of the Year:

• Mahe Drysdale (Rowing)
• Andrew Nicholson (Equestrian)
• Simon van Velthooven (Cycling)
• Richie McCaw (Rugby)

I think probably Mahe Drysdale?

Disabled Sportsperson of the Year Award:

• Cameron Leslie (Para Swimming)
• Mary Fisher (Para Swimming)
• Phillipa Gray (Para Cycling)
• Sophie Pascoe (Para Swimming)

Can only be Sophie.

Team of the Year:

• NZ Men’s Double Scull – Joseph Sullivan and Nathan Cohen (Rowing)
• NZ Men’s Pair – Eric Murray & Hamish Bond (Rowing)
• NZ Women’s 470 Team – Jo Aleh and Polly Powrie (Sailing)
• NZ Men’s 49er Class Team – Peter Burling and Blair Tuke (Sailing)
• All Blacks (Rugby)

I think Murray and Bond would be favourites.

Emerging Talent:

• Andrew McKenzie (Sailing)
• Lydia Ko (Golf)
• Dylan Kennett (Track Cycling)
• Anton Cooper (Mountain Biking)

Ko.

Coach of the Year:

• Gordon Walker (Canoeing)
• Richard Tonks (Rowing)
• Calvin Ferguson (Rowing)
• Nathan Handley (Sailing)

Probably Gordon Walker I’d say.

Make your picks below.