Show Me

It’s a little strange, two times in a row covering cannabis the New York Times has regressed into a fussy old maid of tut-tutting authoritarian repression. The first was a classic jackboot quote from a Seattle lawyer insisting cannabis is a Schedule I drug on December 6th, then this morning some MD stating that recently “there has been a pretty dramatic increase in admission to emergency rooms…” from cannabis use.

It’s remarkable how such an alleged bastion of journalism professionalism and supposed objectivity leaves these laughable quotes just hanging there as if they’re facts of the universe. A huge talking point of the cannabis legalization community is precisely its relative non-toxicity, smoke or ingest too much and it’s the munchies and a nap for you, not a fight, drunk driving arrest or bad trip to the emergency room, Lord no. In half a century in perceiving life I’ve only heard of one emergency room visit from cannabis, a friend in the ‘80’s had a young brother who thought smoking cannabis seeds would work. Doh!

How I Hope Obama Doesn’t Negotiate Debt Ceiling

I’m fragile at Christmas, right, and after the fiscal cliff negotiations—which Digby of Hullabaloo accurately described as experiencing a political death march of Bataan—I’m in a lousy political space. The President used his weekly radio address to reiterate that there will absolutely no negotiating over the debt ceiling this morning and I’m willing to take on good faith this path will be rigorously adhered to in the next 60 days, the precious sanity from DC will be good for me.

I hope the President and the Administration understands that this statement of fine resolution and clarity is not an opening bid of any kind, there seems to be some tacit DC understanding that previous statements about never-to-be-crossed income taxation lines were of course just tactics, if you took the President literally oh well, too bad for you.

Debt Ceiling: The Story is Missing Again

There are indeed many vastly disquieting political elements to the ongoing political fiscal cliff train wreck that is the rancidly-not-fresh start of the second Obama Administration

After punting on the debt ceiling for 60 days the little people have to watch another spectacle that won’t produce one job for 2 months, yes, but there is no doubt some terrible deal will commence. President Obama has drawn yet another line in the sand that the debt ceiling is non-negotiable and no one believes him. That’s what happens when one constantly gives up on previously stated inviolate positions again and again, perceptions of honesty and adherence to principle plummet while the opposition gleefully looks forward to pushing you around again. Not good.

Playing the Long Game

There might be some degree of backslapping over the outcome of the fiscal curb crisis among Democrats, me included. But after a day or two to digest what actually happened, the truth is that Obama may have won the battle but lost the war. And the seeds for this potential loss were sown in his failure of nerve back in 2009 on the stimulus bill.

Obama made it clear from the reeelection onward that he wanted a deal to avoid the sequestration and the elimination of the Bush tax cuts for 98% of taxpayers, and the possibility of a new recession that could come from that. The Beltway assumed all along that the economy was too weak at this time to absorb the double-whammy of higher taxes and significant spending cuts, even though there were dissenting voices who argued that any recession would be short-lived and justified if we could eliminate over $4 trillion of our long-term debt problem overnight by allowing the sequestration and tax increases. And why was the economy too weak to finally begin unwinding the long-term damage of the Bush years? Because Barack Obama didn't have the guts to fight for a larger and more successful stimulus back in 2009 when he had the political capital to do so.

As a result of Joe Biden's deal, the administration cemented in place 82% of Bush's tax cuts and revenue losses, tossing away $2.8 trillion in revenue base-building for the years ahead. Any deal cut later this spring to avoid most or all of the sequestration will toss aside perhaps nearly a trillion more in savings, all because Obama wanted to avoid a recession that could have been avoided back in 2009.

Having said that, and despite the GOP chest-thumping about spending cuts and hostage-taking over the debt ceiling vote at the end of February, the GOP doesn't have the strong hand they think they do. Recent polling shows there is no public support for serious cuts to Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid. In fact, recent Gallup polling shows that eighty-eight percent want Social Security and Medicare strengthened, not cut.

And even after a flawed deal over the holiday, the immediate need to stabilize the debt over the next decade is only $1.2 trillion in policy savings (tax and spending changes). Since the country currently is burdened by over $1 trillion annually in tax expenditures (loopholes, tax breaks and havens, and other special treatments), there is no reason why Obama cannot put together a strong case for $600 billion in domestic spending cuts and even more in tax expenditure eliminations over the next decade. The work of the bipartisan commissions can serve as guideposts for these changes. But the administration will need to wage a campaign over the next 60 days to sell the country on their balanced ideas and the need to reject the GOP's major cuts to entitlement programs, whose sole aim is not to reform them but to redirect sacrifice from the 2% to the 98%.

As for the reforms themselves, Democrats need to see the Stage Two battle over the debt ceiling as simply the second stage of a multi-stage war. Yes, because it is unlikely that tax and entitlement reform can be deliberated effectively in less than 60 days in this environment, Stage Two will be a battle royale over getting $1.2 trillion in savings split between revenues and cuts, and then forcing the GOP to take the country into default because Obama refused to gut government to their liking. If the GOP wants to run on that platform with their largely corporate and senior base in 2014, good luck to them. But Democrats should ready themselves now for Stage Three after this, which will be the long-sought "grand bargain" consisting of entitlement "reforms" to strengthen Social Security and Medicare, and tax reforms to broaden the revenue base, envisioned by the bipartisan commissions. I'll be writing more later on what those reforms may look like.

Christie Tears Into Boehner

Chris Christie got another chance to be on the national stage today, taking large bite out of John Boehner's ass:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican who has praised President Barack Obama's handling of Superstorm Sandy, on Wednesday blasted U.S. House Speaker John Boehner for delaying a vote for federal storm relief.

In an emotional but measured State House news conference, Christie called the speaker's inaction "inexcusable," and said he can no longer believe information he's getting from congressional leaders who had assured him the bill would be brought to a vote.

[snip]

"There's only one group to blame for the continued suffering of these innocent victims, the House majority and their speaker, John Boehner," Christie said, reading from prepared remarks rather than giving one of his trademark impromptu takedowns of a critic. "This is not a Republican or a Democratic issue. National disasters happen in red states and blue states, states with Democratic governors and Republican governors."

And the parting shot:

Even before word came out Wednesday afternoon that Boehner was planning a vote on the aid by Jan. 15, Christie said assurances like those don't mean anything to him now.

"There is no reason for me at the moment to believe anything they tell me because they've been telling me stuff for weeks and they haven't delivered," said Christie.

Ouch; that's gonna leave a mark.