‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2013 Early Release Overview

Release Date: December 5, 2012   |  Full Report Release Date: Spring 2013   |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2013)


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Table 1. Comparison of projections in the AEO2013 and AEO2012 Reference case, 2010-2040 
      2025 2035 2040
Energy and economic factors 2010 2011 AEO2013 AEO2012 AEO2013 AEO2012 AEO2013
Primary energy production (quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum 14.37 15.05 18.70 17.69 17.27 16.82 17.01
Dry natural gas 21.82 23.51 29.22 26.91 32.04 28.60 33.87
Coal 22.04 22.21 22.54 22.25 23.60 24.14 23.54
Nuclear/Uranium 8.43 8.26 9.54 9.60 9.14 9.28 9.44
Hydropower 2.54 3.17 2.86 2.99 2.90 3.04 2.92
Biomass 4.05 4.05 5.27 6.26 5.83 9.07 6.96
Other renewable energy 1.31 1.58 2.32 2.22 2.91 2.81 3.84
Other 0.76 1.20 0.85 0.69 0.90 0.91 0.89
Total 75.31 79.02 91.29 88.61 94.59 94.67 98.46
Net imports (quadrillion Btu)
Liquid fuels and other petroleuma 20.53 18.62 15.89 15.85 16.00 16.09 15.99
Natural gas (- indicates exports) 2.69 2.02 -1.56 -0.76 -2.53 -1.33 -3.55
Coal/other (- indicates export) -1.58 -2.32 -3.02 -1.75 -3.32 -2.32 -2.95
Total 21.64 18.31 11.31 13.34 10.14 12.44 9.49
Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
Liquid fuels and other petroleuma 37.76 37.02 36.87 36.58 35.82 37.70 36.07
Natural gas 24.32 24.91 27.28 26.14 29.06 27.26 29.83
Coal 20.81 19.66 19.35 20.02 20.09 21.15 20.35
Nuclear/Uranium 8.43 8.26 9.54 9.60 9.14 9.28 9.44
Hydropower 2.54 3.17 2.86 2.99 2.90 3.04 2.92
Biomass 2.87 2.74 3.82 4.17 4.23 5.44 4.91
Other renewable energy 1.31 1.58 2.32 2.22 2.91 2.81 3.84
Other 0.31 0.35 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.29
Total 98.35 97.70 102.34 101.99 104.41 106.93 107.64
Liquid fuels (million barrels per day)
Domestic crude oil production 5.47 5.67 6.79 6.40 6.26 5.99 6.13
Other domestic production 4.25 4.74 5.63 5.75 5.56 6.75 5.83
Net imports 9.43 8.51 7.08 7.14 7.06 7.25 7.00
Consumption 19.17 18.95 19.50 19.20 18.86 19.90 18.95
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)
Dry gas production + supplemental gas 21.40 23.06 28.65 26.34 31.41 27.99 33.21
Net imports (- indicates exports) 2.60 1.95 -1.58 -0.79 -2.55 -1.36 -3.55
Consumption 23.78 24.37 26.87 25.53 28.71 26.63 29.54
Coal (million short tons)
Production and waste coal 1,098 1,108 1,134 1,134 1,194 1,231 1,195
Net exports 64 96 124 71 136 94 123
Consumption 1,049 999 1,010 1,063 1,058 1,137 1,071
Prices (2011 dollars)
Brent spot crude oil (dollars per barrel) 81.31 111.26 117.36 -- 145.41 -- 162.68
West Texas intermediate spot crude oil (dollars per barrel) 81.08 94.86 115.36 135.35 143.41 148.03 160.68
Natural gas at Henry Hub(dollars per million Btu) 4.46 3.98 4.87 5.75 6.32 7.52 7.83
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton) 36.37 41.16 52.02 44.97 58.57 51.59 61.28
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour) 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.8
Economic indicators
Real gross domestic product (billion 2005 dollars) 13,063 13,299 18,985 19,185 24,095 24,539 27,277
GDP chain-type price index (2005 = 1.000) 1.110 1.134 1.429 1.424 1.713 1.758 1.871
Real disposable personal income (billion 2005 dollars) 10,017 10.150 14.259 14,286 17,752 18,217 19,785
Value of industrial shipments (billion 2005 dollars) 5,842 6,019 8,548 7,973 9,779 8,692 10,616
Primary energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) 7.53 7.35 5.39 5.32 4.33 4.36 3.95
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) 5,634 5,471 5,501 5,552 5,607 5,758 5,691
aIncludes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel.
-- = not applicable.
Notes: Quantities reported in quadrillion Btu are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Both coal consumption and coal production include waste coal consumed in the electric power and industrial sectors.
Sources: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A; and AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C.

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