Will the "fiscal cliff" impact the rebalance to Asia? Are aircraft carriers obsolete? Can the U.S. build strong partnerships in the Indo-Pacific?
The Diplomat's Editor Harry Kazianis recently spoke with Congressman J. Randy Forbes concerning the "fiscal cliff", America's rebalance to Asia, AirSea Battle, U.S. – China Relations, and building partnerships throughout the "Indo-Pacific."
1. President Obama on his first foreign trip after winning a second term traveled to Southeast Asia. This was at a time when the Middle East seemed ready to explode with violence between Israel and Hamas stealing the headlines in some respects. While America is seemingly "pivoting" or "rebalancing" its focus towards Asia, large cuts may soon hit the defense budget as we approach the "fiscal cliff." What impact would such massive across the board cuts have on the defense aspect of the "pivot." How would such cuts impact initiatives such as AirSea Battle?
Across-the-board cuts in the form of defense sequestration would clearly have a debilitating effect on the defense resourcing side of the Asia “rebalance.” No one denies this. Over the past two years we have already taken $800 billion in defense cuts. With questions already lingering about our ability to resource this effort, our national security strategy simply cannot be sustained under any further reductions.
What I fear most in terms of the Asia rebalance and supporting the AirSea Battle office’s initiatives are further reductions in some of the defense capabilities I consider to be critical. First, we must act to preserve our dominance in the undersea domain by prioritizing platforms like the Virginia-class submarine and its associated Virginia Payload Module (VPM), as well as unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs). Additionally, we must sustain other areas where we possess competitive advantage; specifically, electronic warfare capabilities including the EA-18G Growler and next-generation jammer; and long-range strike platforms like the Air Force Long-Range Bomber (LRS-B) and Navy Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS).
We also need to support the proper balance between hardening, dispersing, and defending our forward-deployed bases and facilities. Hardening facilities is an expensive endeavor, but doing so will greatly enhance the task of ensuring crisis stability and help to deter potential conflict.
Finally, our strategy demands a large navy fleet. Admiral James D. Watkins, the Chief of Naval Operations during the mid 1980s, used the term “violent peace” to describe the frantic pace of naval forces during peacetime. Today’s peacetime Navy faces its own violent pace of operations, pushing operational and personnel tempo to the limit. Providing tailored and sustained American seapower in the Indo-Pacific requires a fleet of roughly 346 ships, including 55 nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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A2/AD, AirSea Battle, China, CSBA, CVN, J. Randy Forbes, PRC
vic
1. It makes more sense to change the rules in a rules-based order to accommodate others instead of simply preserving one's own advantages. Times have changed.
2. Why think offense when the US Constitution says defense. Why is the military arm the only option that the US keeps expounding? The world suffers from American militarism. Now, it is hitting its own people with hardships due to deficit spending.
3. The most important question – can you afford when you want to do? Scale down, it's simpler and more sustainable
Dan
Don't worry, comrade Vic. Fiscal cliff will surely be over soon. Any way, the American national interests are always of paramount importance. Rebalancing to Asia-Pacific is a must for any US administration (Republican or Democrat) , to ensure the region's stability, prosperity & respect for the international law & norms & the current world order for the benefit of all.
John Chan
@Dan,
Whose American national interests? The 1% or the rest of the Americans? The rest of the Americans just want jobs, food on the table and a roof over the head, they don’t want to send their blood relatives as cannon fodders to loot and sack other nations to fill the greed of the 1%.
The Fiscal cliff will not be over if you go to watch the American debt clock, the cliff is getting deeper or the 1% just makes the debt noose over the American’s neck go higher. You can rant reckless all you want, but at least you should have the decency to care for USA’s future, hoping the compromise between the Republicans and Democrats over the Fiscal Cliff a panacea for the USA economy demise is burying the head in the sand and kicking the can down the road, it is the last thing you should do for the USA.
ACT
@John Chan,
the idea of a "fiscal cliff" is an illusion, spread by those who wish to preserve the status quo with regard to the rich-poor divide. Put simply, the "cliff" is merely the end of the bush-era tax cuts and the enacting of laws that impose fiscal responsibility for once; reports i've read suggest that should this come to pass, the deficit could be reduced by as much as 7 trillion within a decade. The U.S military is fully capable of operating under budget constraints, and–should it come to pass–more than capable of stalling and reversing any PRC agression, in which case the military would get an unlimited budget anyway.
John Chan
@ACT,
Fiscal Cliff was coined by Ben Bernanke in order to mobilize the Congress and the President to prevent the USA from falling into another deep recession caused by spending crunches from the people and the government due to tax increases and government spending cuts.
If you say Fiscal Cliff is nothing but a media hype, then you must be smarter than the Chairman of the Fed.
Yes the Americans rather keep their citizens to go hunger and shelterless, but must maintain its bellicose machinery in full tilt, please tell me what shall we call such irresponsible regime?
John Chan
@ACT,
Unless you are the 1%, the tax increase for the average American is about $2,500 next year, hope you have the money to do your American patriotic duty while the 1% can avoid their taxes thru loopholes.
Dan
Chan,
The US is a global superpower, dollar is its own currency & its national budget is quite different from an American household's . In fact, the US has been in debt every year since 1776 & till now , it's still a superpower . So, you just need to know there'll be some solution to its fiscal cliff soon. BTW, you'd better be worried about your own Chinese economy & your '2% elite'. They've been exploiting millions of their own poor people just for the sake of enriching themselves & their vested interest groups in the past 3 decades & now they're kicking the can down the road with the hope that there might be some miracle that could help save the faltering Chinese economy. The strategic Asia-Pacific is very important (both economically & militarily) to the US in the 21st century. Thus, the US' rebalancing to the region is the right strategic approach to promoting & maintaining the region's peace , security & prosperity.
John Chan
@Dan,
USA was not in the debt until there is this blood sucking the Fed which is a foreign and private owned entity.
USA is thousands miles on the other side of the Pacific, and nobody in the world has the capability to threaten the USA, why is it such remote area a security importance to the USA, meanwhile the rest of world does not have such odd idea?
Putting military adventurism ahead of the wellbeing of its people, what shall we call such reckless regime?
Dan
Chan,
"….USA was not in the debt until there is this blood sucking the Fed which is a foreign and private owned entity.'(!)
You better do some research to find it out. I've known you're living in a western country not in China, so you can do it quite freely. The US has been in the Asia-Pacific for the past 6 decades & also a Pacific power , so there's no need for questioning its presence there. Just keep in mind that your Chinese economy is at a critical point. 'Reform or it's over!'
Bankotsu
"The world suffers from American militarism. Now, it is hitting its own people with hardships due to deficit spending."
Even the U.S intelligence agencies says that Pax Americana is ending. Give the U.S another 10-20 years of economic decline, and their unipolar world system order will collapse.
Pax Americana is ‘winding down’, says US report
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4031c202-42f3-11e2-aa8f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Ei8B24R6
Maybe when that happens, all the countries invaded and abused by the U.S like Grenada, Haiti, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Serbia, Vietnam, Chile, Iran, Sudan, Pakistan and others will take revenge on the U.S.
The day of reckoning for the U.S will come.
Leonard R.
Rep. Forbes: "Our military power and alliances are thus not about China, but they can be if Beijing continues to challenge the foundations of the rules-based order."
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Well said. For example, claiming territory that is inside another nation's EEZ is a challenge to the foundations of the "rules-based order". The rules are UNCLOS. China agreed to them and is now flouting those same rules it agreed to.
Bankotsu
"The rules are UNCLOS."
U.S has no right to talk about UNCLOS, they did not ratify it.
Leonard R.
I got it. China refuses to obey a law it agreed to. And the US did not agree to the law, but tends to obey it anyway.
Good point Bankotsu.
Bankotsu
"And the US did not agree to the law, but tends to obey it anyway."
Don't make me laugh.
John Chan
@Leonard R.
Please don’t insult the American Exceptionalism; Americans are the king of law of jungle, and the diehard of “rules only apply to the others but not to them.” Americans must maintain their dignity by not obeying any law.
Bankotsu
The U.S is coming to south china sea, I am also waiting for Chinese aircraft carriers to enter the Gulf of Mexico and the North American Rim. This problem with south china sea can't be solved otherwise.
Jean-Paul
@ Bankotsu
Keep dreaming about your Chinese empire, because all it will ever be is a dream. China has no idea how to manage its own economy and they even have less of an idea of how to switch their export/investment driven economy into a more sustainable longer lasting consumer based economy. China has simply benefited from technology transfers by western and Japanese companies, the current liberal globalization trading system and a massive population.
Without western tech to steal from, China would still be in the 1940s. The only aircraft carrier China has is a Ukrainian used rust bucket, your really putting the cart before the horse here aren't you bankotsu??
scdad07
Without Chinese and Arab techs, the west would still be in dark ages.
Now a black won the 2nd term as US president, the neo-cons turn more desperate to divide the country.
As in history, the fall of an empire begins with the rots inside.
ACT
@scdad07,
"Without Chinese and Arab techs, the west would still be in dark ages."
true enough, so things move in cycles, or at least appear to. Doesn't mean we have to like it, or that China deserves it.
"Now a black won the 2nd term as US president, the neo-cons turn more desperate to divide the country."
the first part of that comment seems racist.
"As in history, the fall of an empire begins with the rots inside."
Aye, and the U.S has recognized this and appears to be doing something about it. next?
Bankotsu
"Keep dreaming about your Chinese empire, because all it will ever be is a dream."
I don't want China to have an empire. I just want the world to be a multipolar world that's all