Recovery.gov - Track the Money

According to the Congressional Budget Office, which produces independent analyses of the federal budget and economic issues, the Recovery Act provided jobs for at least 200,000 people and possibly as many as 900,000 during the third quarter of 2012. Similarly, the gross domestic product increased between 0.1 and 0.7 percent during the same period and the national unemployment rate was lowered between 0.1 and 0.5 percent also as a result of the Recovery initiative, CBO added.

By comparison, CBO reported in August that for the second quarter of 2012 between 200,000 and 1.2 million jobs were attributable to the Recovery Act, GDP increased between 0.1 and 0.8 percent, and the unemployment rate was lowered between 0.1 and 0.6 percent.

CBO analysts arrived at their estimates by:

• looking at recorded spending to date along with estimates of other Recovery effects on spending and revenues,
• using evidence about the effects of previous similar policies, and
• drawing on various mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy.

CBO’s estimated range of total jobs is greater than the number shown on Recovery.gov for the same period (135,455) because only prime recipients of Recovery funds report jobs funded for contract, grant, and loan awards. Jobs at the sub-recipient level may or may not be reported, and jobs at the vendor level are not included in recipient reports. Nor do recipient or sub-recipient reports measure or reflect effects that tax cuts, entitlements paid out, and other parts of the Recovery initiative may have on employment.

The CBO report has provided estimates on total jobs and the impact on the unemployment rate for every quarter since Congress passed the Recovery Act in February 2009 and also projects estimates for the remainder of 2012 and through the end of 2013.

Estimated Macroeconomic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 2009 to 2013

Source: Congressional Budget Office  

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