Sabermetrics 101: Positional Adjustment
by Graham on Feb 25, 2010 12:00 PM PST
in Sabermetrics 101
5 comments
I nearly forgot about this one. Whoopsie.
Prerequisites for understanding: None
Prerequisites for derivation: Data.
5 comments | 0 recs |
Catching Up With Former Mariners
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 25, 2010 11:11 AM PST
in Miscellaneous
35 comments
Because you meet someone once and suddenly their Facebook pictures are interesting.
- Russell Branyan. You should all know by now that Branyan signed with the Indians, but what you may not have heard is that, as of now, he's slotted to be the regular first baseman. This, of course, isn't a permanent arrangement, as both Branyan and Travis Hafner have a little health question storm cloud following them around wherever they go, but for the time being, the Indians are content putting Russell in the field.
Does this reflect poorly on the Mariners? No, for a number of reasons, which aren't limited to the following list:
(1) The M's made Branyan an offer that he turned down, and they couldn't wait around for him to figure out that he didn't have a market
(2) The M's know as much or more about Branyan's health than Cleveland does, and they decided he wasn't worth a strong pursuit. We have no reason to be skeptical of our team's medical staff or front office
(3) The Indians may simply be more willing to take a risk than the M's are, which would be a difference in philosophy and division context. Remember that the Rays, who were also interested, were going to put Branyan at DH
(4) Branyan is 34 years old and no guarantee to outperform Casey Kotchman and Ryan Garko anyway
I wish Branyan all the best, because he's awesome, and I hope he stays perfectly healthy all year long. He deserves it. The M's, though, made an informed and thorough decision to let him go, and they've earned our trust. So while I'd like to have Branyan back, I understand why he's gone. In the meantime, I wonder when someone's going to let the Indians know that Matt LaPorta isn't an outfielder. - Sean Green. Remember when Green went from kind of three-quarters to sidearm? He's lowering his arm angle again even more. Because his platoon split clearly wasn't pronounced enough. Jerry Manuel hopes that Green can be more than a righty specialist because of his groundball tendencies, but Jerry Manuel doesn't realize that Green's career K/BB against lefties is 0.6. All the groundballs in the world aren't going to save you when you miss the target more than everybody that's so far tried to murder Jeff Dunham.
- Jarrod Washburn. The highest-profile remaining outfield free agents: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield, and Garret Anderson. I would kill to see Washburn pitch in front of an outfield of all three of them. Right now, as you're reading this, Washburn is somewhere in the woods, trying to shoot a mammal in the head.
- Rob Johnson. Wait, you're serious?
- Raul Ibanez. Ibanez says he suffered through an abdominal injury last year that made its presence known in May and became "unbearable" by June. You'll recall that Ibanez had a 1.115 OPS through June 2nd and a .758 OPS the rest of the way. Sounds convenient, but then the last time I doubted Raul Ibanez he went on to have every season of his entire career, so I think I'm gonna go ahead and let this one go.
- Adrian Beltre. Beltre rolled his right ankle yesterday when he stepped on a baseball. Given what happened last time Beltre had pain in his ankle, I predict the Red Sox will win the division by 20 games.
- Phillippe Aumont. The Phillies are going to be bumping Aumont back into the rotation. As was the case with Branyan, the M's put a lot of thought into their decision, here, so you either trust them or you don't.
- Carlos Silva. Silva likes Chicago, because while Seattle was concerned about his weight, in Chicago there's less pressure to not be morbidly obese.
- Bill Hall and Tug Hulett. Hall's acquisition means Hulett is unlikely to break camp with the Red Sox. One of these days Hulett will be blocked by a guy that doesn't suck a lot.
- Wladimir Balentien. The re-signing of Jonny Gomes in Cincinnati does a number on Balentien's chances of grabbing significant playing time, as the most likely scenario now has Gomes platooning with Chris Dickerson. Over the last four years, Gomes has a WAR of -0.3.
35 comments | 0 recs |
Much, Much More on Groundballs
by Matthew on Feb 24, 2010 4:00 PM PST
in The More You Know
33 comments
When I posted about the Mariners' 5th starter candidates, a discussion about ground balls broke out and I added a follow-up post based on a quick comparison look between ground balls and fly balls. That post busted a levee of ideas and I ended up delving into tons of data from 2007-9 to look at how different variables interacted with a pitcher's ground ball rate.
I ended up posting a series of articles on the information gleaned on FanGraphs and the thought occurred to me that some of you may not have seen it. I don't like to cross-post material, but since it's been a week and I started it here originally I figured it was worth opening up for discussion.
Ground balls vs. fly balls
Ground balls and home runs
Ground balls and slugging rates
Ground balls and walks and strikeouts
Ground balls and runs scored
I encourage you to go read through them for the graphs at least, but here are some key excerpts:
The results were that the average ground ball generated 0.04 runs and caused 0.80 outs while the average ball in air generated 0.23 runs and caused just 0.62 outs. On a runs-per-out basis, balls hit into the air created almost 7.5 times as much offense as balls kept on the ground did.
What constitutes a line drive is somewhat fuzzy and open to subjective bias. However, even with ignoring line drives, fly balls and pop outs by themselves generate an average of about 0.1 runs and cause 0.79 outs. That rate is still about three times more offensive than the average ball hit on the ground.
The best rule of thumb I can state from this look is that a pitcher’s ground ball rate has no impact on his various rates of yielding home runs and what impact there is might actually be negative.
All told, it does look like ground ball pitchers see a rise in their slugging percentage allowed on non-ground batted balls. The effect is neither large nor overly consistent but it appears to be present.
The expected difference between the two biggest reasonable extremes in ground ball rate (30% to 60%) amounts to fewer than five strikeouts or walks over 200 innings pitched.
To re-state, all data came from MLB 2007-9 seasons and pitchers were restricted to those with at least 250 total balls in play over that entire span.
33 comments | 0 recs |
Sabermetrics 101: The Isolation Problem
by Graham on Feb 24, 2010 1:00 PM PST
in Sabermetrics 101
12 comments
This is an interesting problem. It's tempting to boil it down to 'why RBIs are useless', but I think that that statement is both incorrect and overly inflammatory. So!
Prerequisites for understanding: None.
Prerequisites for derivation: N/A, conceptual.
12 comments | 0 recs |
Quick Additional Note On Lopez/Figgins
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 24, 2010 11:54 AM PST
in The More You Know
34 comments
From zero posts on the topic to two in a few waking hours. You don't know what I'm gonna do next!
Anyway, one of the main topics of discussion both here and elsewhere as far as the whole Lopez/Figgins scenario is concerned has been the matter of positional adjustments. There's been a lot of research on this, and while I'll spare you the math, people smarter than me have found little difference in how players field at third base and second base. That is, while second base gets more opportunities, third base gets more difficult opportunities, and the overall position adjustment between the two positions is zero. Given an average 2B, and given a switch to 3B, you would expect him to post a similar or equivalent UZR.
Implied by this is that the underlying skillsets required at 2B and 3B are the same, but that doesn't hold. While, overall, there isn't much difference, you can see some individual differences when you break things down. Let's do a little analysis of the Fan Scouting Report. If you compare all the 2Bs to all the 3Bs, or if you compare the top 20 2Bs to the top 20 3Bs, you end up with meaningful differences in the following two categories:
Velocity/sprint speed: more important for 2B than 3B (difference of 0.4 for total, 0.4 for top 20)
Throwing strength: more important for 3B than 2B (difference of 0.5 for total, 0.8 for top 20)
This, of course, comes as no surprise. It's completely intuitive - second basemen need better range, and third basemen need stronger arms. Now we just have a little statistical evidence.
Figgins is quick, light on his feet, but there are questions about his arm strength. Lopez is a little slower, but he's got a better arm.
This is what people mean when they say Figgins seems more naturally suited for 2B while Lopez is more naturally suited for 3B. Figgins has the body and skillset of a second baseman, and Lopez has the body and skillset of a third basemen. It just so happens they've been playing in different positions.
By flipping them, then, the M's are simply trying to find out if they can maximize each player's strengths while minimizing their weaknesses. In a hypothetical world where both players adjust to their new roles quickly, then, in theory, the M's should be better off. And if they can't adjust quickly - if Lopez can't handle the heat, or if Figgins struggles with the DP - then that should become evident pretty fast, and the whole experiment can be called off, with no damage being done.
It's February 24th. What's the harm?
34 comments | 0 recs |
On Lopez As 3B And Figgins As 2B
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 23, 2010 11:49 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
76 comments
Note: there's a good discussion of positional adjustments in the comment thread. The numbers I present don't tell the whole story.
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So I'm late to the party, here. If it helps, that was deliberate - this being the first day of anything, I didn't think the position switch was sufficiently meaningful to warrant a post. But I've gone back and forth on it, and now here I am.
I won't bother repeating in detail what others have already said. You can read Dave's take at USSM, Jon's first and second takes at PBNW, and Shannon Drayer's take as well. They've already been very thorough in their coverage of the first real story of the spring.
The main point of concern being raised is lack of experience - practice and minor leagues aside, Figgins has never played second as more than an occasional position, and Lopez only has 25 innings of ML time at third. It seems strange, then, to switch them, because Figgins is great at third, Lopez is okay at second, and all of their experience at their respective positions has to count for something. How reasonable is it to expect them to be able to make seamless transitions to another spot?
It is an excellent point. Experience at a defensive position can matter a lot. There are parts of playing second and parts of playing third that you can't learn if you don't experience them firsthand, and experience them over and over. Lopez, one imagines, is better at turning the double play than Figgins is right now. And Figgins, in turn, is probably better at, say, charging a bunt or throwing across the diamond.
But what if both Figgins and Lopez take to their new positions with ease? What if? This is all just an experiment, after all. There's no commitment. That's why they're trying it out, and trying it out so early. Lopez has the body of a third baseman while Figgins has the body of a second baseman, and the team wants to see if that means anything.
Using stats from The Hardball Times, here are the league average balls in zone per season:
Second Base: 425 balls in zone
Third Base: 334 balls in zone
Over the last three years, the Mariners have averaged 445 BIZ at second and 336 BIZ at third. And while third basemen make more out-of-zone plays (OOZ) than second basemen do, the point remains clear - second basemen get more play opportunities than third basemen.
I wonder if this isn't at the very heart of the matter. Chone Figgins is a better athlete than Jose Lopez. He's clearly the better defensive player at his position. He has more lateral range. If Figgins can play second as well or better than he can play third, and if Lopez can handle the hot corner without embarrassing himself, suddenly it might make sense to bump the better defender to the more active position.
Don Wakamatsu made an interesting decision today. We'll see if it means anything going forward. I'm guessing that, come season time, Lopez and Figgins will be back at their normal positions. But now is the time to experiment. We know Lopez can handle 2B and Figgins can handle 3B. They don't need much practice to get up to speed. What if they can switch? What if the team can get the better glove to the more active position? What if it turns out that Figgins is better suited for 2B than 3B, or that Lopez is better suited for 3B than 2B? I'll leave it to the Mariners to determine whether or not this'll work, but I absolutely don't see the harm in trying to find out.
76 comments | 0 recs |
Mariners In On 17 Year Old Rafael DePaula
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 23, 2010 7:48 PM PST
in Regular News
84 comments
Don't miss the podcast!
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Via MLB Trade Rumors, we get info from ESPN's Jorge Arangure:
DePaula is still mulling over an offer from the mariners
Seattle started to make a hard push last week.
i just don't think [the Yankees] value him as highly as Seattle does right now.
plus i heard that Seattle was super aggressive in going after him.
DePaula was suspended by MLB last year for (allegedly) misrepresenting his age. Since DePaula wasn't actually affiliated with MLB, what I gather is that this means he had to remain unsigned even though he was an eligible free agent. So, hey, whoops.
Anyway, he's not suspended anymore, and as such, he's got a number of suitors. The M's are among them. MLBTR claims he's the equivalent of a first-round pick, for whatever that's worth, so he's clearly a talented son of a bitch. Here's the scouting report:
- Young
- Righty
- Live fastball
- Other stuff has potential
- First Google Image search result for his name is a picture of the Yankees winning the World Series
If that sounds familiar, it's because it's the same scouting report you get for every young Latin arm. Which isn't to say that DePaula isn't especially interesting, but rather that I don't know much about him and neither Mariners Minors nor Pro Ball NW have checked in yet with anything. The proper conclusion here: if the Mariners like him, it's probably because they think he's really talented, so if the Mariners get him, you should be happy. And if the Mariners don't get him, whatever, he's just another Yankee hype job, and screw those guys and their damn propaganda. Nice call on Eric Duncan, morons.
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Update: Jay from Mariners Minors has a post!
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Update #2: Jon from PBNW has a post!
84 comments | 0 recs |
LL Podcast
by Matthew on Feb 23, 2010 7:00 PM PST
in Podcasts
75 comments
This week's topics incude:
Olympic Hockey
Some small Mariner news nuggets
Lots of Jim Bowden
75 comments | 0 recs |
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