Daily Kos

observers to help us conduct fairer elections.  

But since provisionals will skew here toward a lower-income more transient population, it's wildly unlikely they will favor Romney.

House District 2 critical race comprises much of the Conchise county.

Juanita Murrey, the county's Elections director should give a convincing explanation...

That's my only source.

that is spot on.

that 48 hours after the election one third of the votes in the state have still not been counted.

It makes me not want to vote by early vote next time and that is a horrible result.

the concessions, if they remain unretracted, may actually affect the outcome of the Senate or Maricopa Sheriff races.  Some provisional voters will only have their vote counted if they return to the county recorder's office with identification documents within 5 business days of the election (that is, by next Tuesday).  If the candidates and the media are telling them it won't make a difference, I fear people will be much less likely to bother.

before you can recount.

Who wins a race is determined by the actual certified final vote total, not whether a candidate may have prematurely or mistakenly conceded the race.  A concession speech is not "binding" on the candidate who conceded.

Just as with everywhere else, AZ Democrats did a huge early voting push. So, it is likely there are a LOT of democratic votes in there. Provisional ballots also tend to be heavily minority, and there was an unprecedented number of them in Maricopa county (115,000).

With provisionals and early voting leaning Carmona. You can see this on the state website, I'll check.

should be counted.  I thing there is a 99.9% probability that anyone bothering to vote is legitimate.  

Approximately 1/3 of AZ's actual electorate won't change the pace of the race at every level???

I guess that if these 600K voters break 70%-30% for the Democrats, it might even differentiate the outcome of the race in Obama's favor!!!

I'll be thrilled to see AZ blue on the map and the President's electoral vote share climbing to the magic number of 343!!!

We need to keep on top of this.

and I cannot identify any "gross election incompetence" that occurred her. The only "gross incompetence" I heard of was committed by the Tea Party group True the Vote, which got itself kicked out of Franklin County (Columbus) for forging signatures on its applications for observer permits.

seem to be able to remember this fact from one election to another:

All that "100 %" means on the online voting results is that 100 % of the precincts have reported in. What is reported from the precincts on Election Night is ballots CAST at the polls on Election Day. First reports are from the central voter office (put up soon after the polls close). Those are the mail-in ballots or early voting ballots the central voter office has been able to count before Tuesday. That figure never includes mail in ballots dropped off at the polls on Election Day, which are processed after Tuesday.

This year, my county's voter office was also too busy to process mail-in ballots they received in the mail on Monday, so this year we expect the number of uncounted ballots to be a bit higher than the up to 40 to 45 percent of the final total count we've had in recent years. We don't have a lot of early voters, here.

In 2010, the county daily reported a very low turnout, oh no, forgetting that that "100%" does not mean all ballots have been counted. As a campaign manager for a local candidate that year, I spent a lot of time explaining that to people.

Only if there is a significant demographic difference between early voters and those who voted at the polls on Election Day are any results likely to be changed with the real "final" report.

Not much chance of Carmona winning, but Barber is tantalizingly close.

disabled, new young people, and Hispanic.

60%/40% for Carmona is possible.

That's 80,000 votes. Equalizes the count overall. Then you go out to the rest of the state.

BALLOT WAS RECEIVED AND WILL COUNT

They may be processed but not counted. I don't know why a state would not have an early-vote count on election night. Ohio did. That's irregular. But provisionals are always added later because they have to be processed to determine which are valid votes. I don't know the situation in Arizona (and with the reelection of Joe Arpaio, I don't want to know this dismal state exists anymore), but here in Ohio, everyone who comes in gets to vote, even if it's clear that they are not valid voters — not registered, not citizens, whatever. All of that is sorted out in post-processing. Once the valid provisionals are ascertained, then those ballots are added in. But expect many of the provisionals not to be valid voters.

retracted concession earlier today. Carmona probably should, as well.

is that some of the provisional-ballot voters may need to take additional action by next Tuesday for their votes to be counted.  And they're less likely to do that if they think there's no way it will make a difference in any race.

As explained in the FAQ on provisional ballots from the Pima County Recorder's Office, if someone is issued a provisional ballot because they had no ID with them when they came to the polls, as opposed to inadequate ID, then they must bring proper ID to the county recorder's office by 5 business days after the election to have their vote counted:

I was required to vote a provisional ballot because I did not have ANY identification at the polls. What do I do now?
The identification requirement was introduced into Arizona law by a voter approved ballot initiative. If you had no form of acceptable identification, you must bring identification to the Recorder’s Office within the time limits of the statute. As a convenience to voters, the Recorder’s Office designates several locations within an election area as receiving locations for that identification. The poll workers should have provided you with a list of the required identification and of the receiving locations at the time you finished your provisional ballot. For most elections, the deadline for presenting that identification is 5:00 p.m. on the Friday following election day. For the November election cycles in even numbered years, the deadline is 5:00 p.m. on the 5th business day after election day. That may be either the Tuesday or the Wednesday of the week after election day depending on when the Veteran’s Day holiday falls. If you do not present the proper identification by that deadline, the law requires that your ballot be rejected.

Not 1. Ann Kirkpatrick won that, thank goodness.

Yeah, that is very annoying. There is a video at the bottom of the page that autoplays and when you pause it another one starts at the top of the page that also needs to be stopped.

Disabled people often have to vote, practically, with absentee ballots. In AZ that's the Early Voting system.

By treading on the disabled, these axxholes have wandered into the arms of Federal law.

Web site for complains:

-- http://www.ada.gov/

U.S. Department of Justice
Americans with Disabilities Act
ADA HOME PAGE
- - - - - - -
Reporting Possible Voting Rights Violations
For all election-related complaints.

Please call:

--  1-800-253-3931(voice)

--  1-877-267-8971 (TTY)

Doubling these "inactive" lists doubled interference with disabled voter rights, for which a claim of "mistakes" would be balanced against finding patterns of these actions across multiple counties.

-- Voting Accessibility for the Elderly and Handicapped Act (VAA) of 1984

-- Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990

-- National Voter Registration Act of 1995 (Motor Voter Law) which has specific requirements for disabled registration as well as access to alternative voting methods

-- Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002

Call. Complain.

Demand that The Bureau set up a Strike Force. Investigate systematic vote theft aimed at disabled Americans. Disabled people tend to vote for Democrats more than GOPers. No surprise that.

Then organize hundreds of citizen complainants to make the case for a conspiracy charge ranging all across AZ -- a felony charge, a RICO against public officials -- naming these GOPer thugs for what they are.

withdrawal is instantaneous. Why not in voting?

3) The system source code could be available for public audit.

“Vendors may come and they may say they’ve solved the Internet voting problem for you, but I think that, by and large, they are misleading you, and misleading themselves as well,” said Ron Rivest, MIT computer scientist and cryptography pioneer. “If they’ve really solved the Internet security and cybersecurity problem, what are they doing implementing voting systems? They should be working with the Department of Defense or financial industry.”

"Online Voting Isn't Ready, Say Panel" (11/6/2012)

They can handle a Trillion dollars a year in money transfers online - voting should be a snap.

5) The system could be hacked and subverted, changing vote totals
6) The system would be vulnerable to denial of service attacks
7) The system could never, ever be trusted

Get all the computers out of elections. I just barely trust the optical reader machines that scan the ballots. At least those can be recounted by humans.

I develop web software all day, every day and I would never, ever trust online voting.

democratic voters have two jobs or are single mothers or have other priorities that often come up on election day and they don't end up voting.  Early voting gives individuals more opportunities to vote on their own time so that if something comes up last minute that they have to take care of, they don't miss out.

Because of the provisionals.  

Under Arizona law, some provisional voters need to go to a county office with proper ID within a limited amount of time in order to have their votes counted.  If the candidates and the media and everyone are telling them that all of the races in their area are over, I fear that many voters are much less likely to go to the trouble of showing their ID at a county office.

The early ballots and provisional ballots that have been counted lean Carmona, but I don't know if it is enough to get him over the line. It will definitely tighten the race, though.

They knew that the concession speech was not a legal commitment.

But they were not aware that the concession might influence people not do go down and do the ID validation.

That is getting passed to Carmona this morning but you never know if that will be strong enough to make it happen.

That concession speech needs to get rescinded.

-- IF YOU KNOW DR. CARMONA give him a call.

-- Make sure he gets in gear so his voters go in and show ID where needed.

That's a great piece!

that it's not so simple as waiting for the count, because the concession is discouraging conditional provisional voters who may only have until next Tuesday to present ID at the county recorder's office and who presumably won't bother if they think all races in their area are decided.

I called and delivered this message to someone significantly nicer than the woman you spoke to, but it would help for others to do so as well.  She mentioned that a lot of the provisional ballots are from (Latino-voter-heavy) West Phoenix, but only partly seemed to appreciate the potential significance of this fact.

The Phoenix office is apparently closing today and they will be moving everything to Tuscon, so anyone who wants to use the Phoenix number should call soon.

I tweeted her about it yesterday, not sure if that helped.