The pick here is Heller by less than 5 points

Sen. Dean Heller is doing something this campaign season that no other politician has to do.

He’s fighting two opponents. Heller was fond of saying it during the campaign and it’s true.

First, he is competing against his Democratic opponent, Rep. Shelley Berkley of Las Vegas.

Heller also has to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, master of the Machiavellian world of Capital Hill, boss of the upper house.

Reid has seemingly gone out of his way to frustrate and insinuate against Heller, particularly in issues dealing with the pending online poker legislation and Yerington land-transfer bill.

Reid's job of senate majority leader hangs in the balance of this election. Reid is dabbling in this Nevada U.S. Senate election because a Berkley victory is critical to Reid's job security. Harry didn’t create the "Reid Machine” for nothing.

Not only must Heller compete with a six-term congresswoman, he's got to wrestle the boa constrictor that aims to squeeze the very life out of his political career.

If he loses this election, well, let’s just say it’s a long, hard fall. Heller knows that. And for the most part, he has worked all year like he's 10 points down.

Heller is up by a small margin, according to a few respected polls. If he beats Berkley, it would be a humongous blow to the Nevada Democratic Party and Reid.

The bet here is Heller win by a margin that’s less than 5 points.

Heller will be strong up north, rock solid in the part of Nevada we used to call “Gibbons Country.” The Washoe GOP would look bad if it doesn't deliver Reno to Heller.

Heller's biggest challenge is making a large enough dent into Berkley’s obvious advantage in Clark County voter registration and union backing.

This election could launch a long career in the Senate for Heller, the son of an local-legend stock-car racer from Carson City. If he beats Berkley and Reid — together — you'll need a stick of dynamite to get him out of that Senate seat.

IT WOULD SEEM like Democratic President Obama has the advantage over Republican Mitt Romney in the Nevada presidential election. Democrats hold the lead in early voting attendance and voter registration.

But the Romney camp is holding on tight in northern Nevada.

It had a strong showing at the Nevada Day Parade in Carson City last weekend. Last week, the campaign had Northern Nevada stops by son, Josh Romney, and vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Thursday’s stop by Ryan in Reno was his second this season. If Romney has given up on Nevada, someone forgot to tell his staff.

A WINNING TICKET OF HELLER and Obama is nothing new. Both Obama and Heller rolled to victory in 2008 in Nevada, although Heller was running in a re-election bid as Nevada’s representative in the 2nd U.S. House District.

“Four years ago, 30,000 people in my congressional district who voted for President Obama voted for me,” Heller said. “So I need for that to happen again. I think it will happen but I need it to happen again.”

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