The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory

Maine has largely slipped from the ranks of top battleground states, with Democrats winning here in the last five presidential elections. The same could be true this year, considering President Obama won by 17 percentage points in 2008. But Mitt Romney’s Northeastern roots – and the state’s Tea Party strain – make it worth watching. The Romney campaign will try to seize at least one electoral vote since Maine is one of two states that divide their allotment.

Mitt Romney was born and raised in Michigan, where his father was a popular governor. But the competition with President Obama will be rooted in the economy – not nostalgia – in this Democratic-leaning state. The government’s rescue of the auto industry, which Mr. Romney opposed, will be a central line of argument by the Obama campaign. Mr. Romney will likely fight hard in the state, given his family ties, but he has an uphill battle.

President Obama recorded a 15-point victory over Senator John McCain in New Mexico four years ago, a margin that belied the history of the state’s hard-fought presidential elections. While Republicans carried the state in 2004 and elected a new governor in 2010, New Mexico is still viewed as Democratic-friendly terrain. Mitt Romney will campaign here, but his advisers concede that it is likely not one of their best opportunities to pick up electoral votes.

Democrats have won Minnesota in the last nine presidential elections – native son Walter Mondale claimed it as his only state victory in 1984 – so there is little reason to think that President Obama will struggle here. But the president’s campaign is organizing and not taking this Midwestern state for granted. If Mitt Romney is competitive here in the closing stretch of the campaign, Mr. Obama could face a very stiff re-election challenge.

President Obama’s victory in Colorado was among his most prized accomplishments in 2008, after the state had voted reliably Republican in eight of the last nine presidential elections. A wariness of big government could test Mr. Obama in the Rocky Mountain West, but Mitt Romney faces his own challenge in appealing to independents and women, whose support was critical in a pair of Democratic wins in races for Senate and governor in Colorado in 2010.

The most famous battleground state in America could once again earn that title. President Obama carried the state in 2008, but a wave of home foreclosures and a sour economy has complicated his path to an easy victory. A growing number of conservative retirees offer Mitt Romney hope, but the outcome could hinge on whether he can win over Hispanic voters, particularly younger Cuban Americans in southern Florida and Puerto Ricans in central Florida.

President Obama has a sentimental attachment to Iowa for delivering his first victory in his improbable primary race four years ago. But the state presents a far bigger challenge this time. Mitt Romney and the full Republican field spent months attacking Mr. Obama in the Iowa caucus campaign this year, which has kept the president’s poll ratings lower than other nearby states. In a close general election, these six electoral votes are critical to both sides.

The White House has paid close attention to New Hampshire, sending Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to the state repeatedly to make an argument against Mitt Romney, who has a vacation home in New Hampshire and is seen as a favorite son. The voters have an independent streak, but generally oppose what they perceive as government intrusion in their lives. It could be one of Mr. Romney’s best opportunities to win a state that Mr. Obama carried.

The economic outlook in Nevada has declined considerably since President Obama won the state four years ago and has been slow to rebound. With the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment, Mitt Romney has a ready-made laboratory to argue that policies of the Obama administration have not worked. A large Mormon population also could bolster Mr. Romney, but Mr. Obama is hoping his appeal to Hispanic and lower-income voters will deliver the state again.

There are few credible paths to the White House for Mitt Romney without winning Ohio, a well-established bellwether. The state has accurately picked winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. A steadily improving economy could help President Obama carry the state again. Large portions of the state remain conservative, but Republicans worry that Democrats may be motivated by a victory last year in which voters struck down a law restricting public workers’ rights to bargain collectively.

Pennsylvania remains a swing state, but has steadily trended Democratic. Republicans have lost the last five presidential elections in Pennsylvania, largely because population shifts have increased the importance of suburban areas around Philadelphia. President Obama will benefit from a significant advantage in Democratic voter registration, but Republicans believe Mitt Romney’s economic message could win over enough independent voters to make the state competitive. The 2012 race will test the state’s long-term role as a battleground.

As one of the nation’s newest battleground states, Virginia will be center stage in President Obama’s fight for re-election. The state is deeply conservative, but population shifts in Northern Virginia have changed the state’s political demographics. Mitt Romney’s argument against the expansion of government is complicated by the number of government workers in Virginia. The president carried the state by seven percentage points in 2008, but both campaigns agree the race will be closer this year.

A Republican resurgence in Wisconsin, which helped Gov. Scott Walker fend off a recall attempt in June, has helped turned the state into a potentially charged and competitive battleground. Democrats won the state last six presidential contests – often narrowly – but party leaders say the it is not a sure fire win for President Obama. Mitt Romney must show that he can tap into conservative enthusiasm, but Democrats will struggle to prevail without these 10 electoral votes.