In 2008, Texas was, for the first time in 20 years, a pivotal state in presidential politics, more so in the two parties’ nomination contests than in the general election, although the result there was notably closer than many people had anticipated. In 1988, Texas’ presidential primary was moved to March, for Super Tuesday. Then, Democrats dominated the legislature and far more Texans chose to vote in the Democratic than in the Republican primary. That year, 1.7 million voted in the Democratic primary, and Michael Dukakis led with 33% of the vote, Jesse Jackson got 25%, ahead of Al Gore, running as a Southern moderate, with 20%. Dukakis had support from urban liberals and Hispanics, Jackson from African-Americans, Gore from the dwindling number of rural and small-town yellow dog Democrats. Just over 1 million votes were cast on the Republican side, most of them for Texas’ own George H.W. Bush. In 1992, turnout was lower in both parties’ primaries and in 1996, 2000 and 2004, both parties’ nominations were determined by the time Texas voted. Read More
In 2008, Texas was, for the first time in 20 years, a pivotal state in presidential politics, more so in the two parties’ nomination contests than in the general election, although the result there was notably closer than many people had anticipated. In 1988, Texas’ presidential primary was moved to March, for Super Tuesday. Then, Democrats dominated the legislature and far more Texans chose to vote in the Democratic than in the Republican primary. That year, 1.7 million voted in the Democratic primary, and Michael Dukakis led with 33% of the vote, Jesse Jackson got 25%, ahead of Al Gore, running as a Southern moderate, with 20%. Dukakis had support from urban liberals and Hispanics, Jackson from African-Americans, Gore from the dwindling number of rural and small-town yellow dog Democrats. Just over 1 million votes were cast on the Republican side, most of them for Texas’ own George H.W. Bush. In 1992, turnout was lower in both parties’ primaries and in 1996, 2000 and 2004, both parties’ nominations were determined by the time Texas voted.
Not so in 2008. After Barack Obama in February won 14 straight Democratic primaries and 11 caucuses, Texas and Ohio were must-wins for Hillary Rodham Clinton on March 4. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee was still campaigning against John McCain. So Texas got a lot more attention than it would have if the legislature had chosen to set the primary for Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Obama and Clinton debated and campaigned hard in Texas. Democratic turnout was nearly 2.9 million, more than triple the 839,000 who voted in 2004 and 70% above the peak in 1988. The primary was a closer contest than Ohio’s. Clinton won by just 51%-47%. As in other states, Clinton carried women, older voters, downscale and rural whites and Latinos by wide margins. Obama carried men, younger voters, upscale and urban whites and blacks by wide margins. Clinton won 61% to 70% of the vote in San Antonio and border state Senate districts. (Texas Democrats elect delegates by state Senate districts.) Obama won 73% in heavily African-American state Senate districts in Houston and Dallas. Rural districts, except for one which includes exurban Austin’s Williamson County voted for Clinton. Obama carried metro Dallas with 56%, metro Houston with 55%, and metro Austin with 60%. Clinton carried 18 Senate districts to Obama’s 13, but Obama won more delegates overall because one-third of them were selected in caucuses held on primary night and more Obama voters took the trouble to show up.
Turnout on the Republican side was much lower, 1.3 million, less than half the Democratic turnout and only slightly above the 1.1 million Republicans who voted in the not seriously contested primary in 2000. McCain beat Huckabee, 51%-38%. Huckabee carried only one U.S. House district, the 4th, which includes Texarkana, right on the border with his native Arkansas. Half the primary voters were white evangelical Protestants, and Huckabee won more than 40% of the vote in the northern more, Baptist half of the state, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. He won less than 40% in most parts of the southern half of the state. McCain’s biggest majorities were in the border areas and in the most upscale districts in Houston and Dallas.
In general elections, Texas has not voted Democratic since 1976, when it narrowly backed Jimmy Carter. The best the Democratic ticket has done here since then was 43% in 1988, when Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen was Michael Dukakis’ running mate, and 44% in 1996, when Texan Ross Perot split the opposition to Bill Clinton, and Republican Bob Dole carried the state with 49% of the vote.
In 2008, Obama got 44% of the vote, which left him well behind McCain’s 55%, but not so far behind as to banish Democrats’ hopes they may be competitive for Texas’ 38 electoral votes in 2012. Obama carried the central city counties including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin, something no Democrat has done since Lyndon Johnson swept his home state in 1964. Republicans led in party identification by only 34%-33%, but conservatives outnumbered liberals, 46%-15%. Whites voted 73%-26% for McCain. He also won 83% among white evangelical Protestants and 69% among white voters under 30. African-Americans voted 98%-2% for Obama. Hispanics voted 63%-35% for Obama. Hispanics and upscale white voters were the most likely to have switched from Bush in 2004 to Obama in 2008. As a result, the coalitions supporting each candidate were very different in hue. More than 80% of McCain’s votes were cast by whites. A little more than one-third of Obama voters were whites, with a little less than one-third African-American and about the same share Hispanic.