PREFACE
The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview provides a summary description of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which was used to generate the forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), (DOE/EIA-0383(98)), released in December 1997. AEO98 presents national forecasts of energy markets for five cases--a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The Overview presents a brief description of the methodology and scope of each of the component modules of NEMS. The model documentation reports listed in the appendix of this document provide further details.The Overview was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Arthur T. Andersen (aanderse@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1441), Director of the Energy Demand and Integration Division; Scott Sitzer (ssitzer@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Director of the Energy Supply and Conversion Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Modeling Analyst. Detailed questions concerning NEMS may be addressed to the following analysts:
| AEO98Susan H. Holte (sholte@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838) |
| Integrating Module/Carbon Emissions Daniel H. Skelly (dskelly@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1722) |
| Macroeconomic Activity Module Kay A. Smith (ksmith@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1455) |
| International Energy Module G. Daniel Butler (gbutler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9503) |
| Residential Demand Module John Cymbalsky (jcymbals@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4815) |
| Commercial Demand Module Erin Boedecker (eboedeck@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4791) |
| Industrial Demand Module T. Crawford Honeycutt (choneycu@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1420) |
| Transportation Demand Module David Chien (dchien@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-3994) |
| Electricity Market Module Jeffrey Jones (jjones@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2038) |
| Renewable Fuels Module Thomas Petersik (tpetersi@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-6582) |
| Oil and Gas Supply Module Ted McCallister (tmccalli@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4820) |
| Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Joseph Benneche (jbennech@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-6132) |
| Petroleum Market Module Thomas White (twhite@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1393) |
| Coal Market Module Richard Newcombe (rnewcomb@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2415) |
AEO98 is available on the EIA CD-ROM and the EIA Home Page on the Internet (http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo98/homepage.html) including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the tables, go to the EIA FTP site (ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/forecasting/aeo98/aeo98tables). To download the entire report in Portable Document Format (PDF), go to ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/forecasting/aeo98/reports/0383(98).pdf. Assumptions underlying the projections, tables of regional projections and other underlying details of the reference case, model documentation reports, and The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview are also available on the CD-ROM and the Home Page.
For ordering information and for questions on energy statistics, please contact EIA's National Energy Information Center.
National Energy Information Center, EI-30
Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building
Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202/586-8800 FAX: 202/586-0727
TTY: 202/586-1181 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., eastern time, M-F
E-mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov
World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.gov FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov
TO: Introduction
File last modified: April 22, 1999
URL:
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo98/ov98/front.htm
Contact Name:Susan H. Holte, susan.holte@eia.doe.gov
Phone: (202) 586-4838
Fax: (202) 586-3045
If you having technical problems
with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov