Overview
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USDA Agricultural
Projections to 2021, released in February 2012, provide longrun
projections for the farm sector for the next 10 years. These annual
projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and
aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food
prices.
Important assumptions for the projections include the
following:
- Global economic growth reflects a movement back to longrun
steady gains.
- Increases in world population continue to slow. Growth in most
developing countries remains above that in the rest of the
world.
- Population gains in developing countries--along with higher
incomes, increased urbanization, and expansion of the middle
class--are particularly important for growth in global food
demand.
- Continued expansion of biofuels further adds to world demand
for agricultural products.
Key results in the projections include the following:
- Prices for major crops decrease in the early years of the
projections as global production responds to recent high
prices.
- Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall
in 2012 and 2013 in response to lower producer returns over much of
the past several years. Meat production then increases in response
to improved returns.
- World economic growth and demand for biofuels combine to
support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices for
agricultural products.
- Thus, following the near-term declines, prices for corn, wheat,
oilseeds, and many other crops remain historically high.
- Following near-term reductions from record levels reached in
2011, the values of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income
rise through the rest of the decade.
- Retail food price increases average less than the overall rate
of inflation in 2013-21, largely reflecting production increases in
the livestock sector that limit meat price increases.