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ADA470031
Counterterrorism Tactics: A Model of Cell Dynamics
Personal Author(s): Giebel, Kathleen A
Report Date: Jun 2007
Media Count: 83 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *ORGANIZATIONS, *CELLS, *CASE STUDIES, *ATTACK, *GROUP DYNAMICS, *PLANNING, DETECTION, COUNTERTERRORISM, NEW YORK(NEW YORK), BOMBING, LOS ANGELES(CALIFORNIA), BRIDGES, TERRORISM, ORGANIZATION THEORY, AIRPORTS, INTERDICTION, MODELS, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, PACIFIC OCEAN, AIRCRAFT, DECISION MAKING
Identifiers: (U) *TERRORISM MODELING, *TERRORIST ATTACK PLANNING, TERRORIST CELL DYNAMICS, GRASSROOTS CELLS, THWARTED ATTACKS, BROOKLYN BRIDGE ATTACK, MILLENNIAL BOMBINGS AT LOS ANGELES AIRPORT, OPERATION BOJINKA, OPERATION MANILA AIR, AL QAEDA PLOTS
Abstract: (U) The modus operandi of various terrorist organizations have been studied extensively, and databases such as ITERATE collate details about terrorist attacks, to include the types of technology used by the terrorist organization and the number of resultant casualties. Surprisingly, however, a generalized model of how terrorist organizations plan their attacks is unavailable in the extant literature. Drawing from organizational theory, particularly the command and control literature and case study methods, this paper posits a generalized model of terrorist attack planning. By extending this model into the counterterrorism domain, the author considers how to more optimally detect terrorist attacks. One thing this model must take into consideration is the assertion that terror cell origins today have changed from the origin of terror cells like the 9-11 attackers. "[There] was a shift from an Al Qaeda operational model based on an 'all-star' team of operatives that was selected, trained and dispatched by the central leadership to the target, to an operational model that encourages independent "grassroots" Jihadists to conduct attacks, or to a model in which Al Qaeda provides operational commanders who organize grassroots cells." This work conducts research into the following three thwarted terrorist attacks: (1) the Brooklyn Bridge attack by Iyman Faris; (2) the Millennial Bombings at the Los Angeles Airport by Ahmad Ressam; and (3) Operation Bojinka, a plan in the mid-1990s to attack airliners over the Pacific Ocean along with a series of simultaneous attacks around the world, masterminded by Ramzi Ahmed Yousef. Occasionally, the author makes reference to other terrorist attacks to better illustrate a specific point. However, primary emphasis is placed on the terrorist plots outlined above.
ADA470802
Chinese Methods of Interpersonal Conflict Management
Personal Author(s): Locke, Christine A
Report Date: 24 May 2007
Media Count: 103 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *CRISIS MANAGEMENT, *CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), UNITED STATES, PROBLEM SOLVING, CONFLICT, CULTURE, CHINA, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS
Identifiers: (U) *CONFLICT MANAGEMENT
Abstract: (U) This paper investigates the differences between American and Chinese interpersonal conflict management styles by looking at the roots of Chinese culture, Chinese and American cultural differences, American conflict management models, and Chinese conflict management models. The paper concludes by applying Chinese and American conflict management styles to contemporary issues involving the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and the Republic of China. Overall, Americans overtly prefer collaborating or compromising techniques, but unconsciously tend towards competing. The Chinese, on the other hand, prefer non-confrontational strategies in order to maintain a harmonious relationship but will modify their styles depending on the nature of the relationship. They will often involve a third party to mediate and think much more positively about avoidance and accommodation than Americans. Facework provides an overarching strategy to maintain one's face within the group and determines which style has preference in a given circumstance.
ADA471958
Applications of Stochastic Analyses for Collaborative Learning and Cognitive Assessment
Personal Author(s): Soller, Amy, Stevens, Ron
Report Date: Apr 2007
Media Count: 52 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, *COGNITION, *PROBLEM SOLVING, *LEARNING, *COLLABORATIVE TECHNIQUES, *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, ALGORITHMS, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, INTERACTIONS, METHODOLOGY, NEURAL NETS
Identifiers: (U) *COLLABORATIVE LEARNING, *COGNITIVE ASSESSMENT, *LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS, STOCHASTIC SEQUENCE ANALYSIS, APPLIED PROBABILISTIC CLASS ANALYSIS, HMM(HIDDEN MARKOV MODELING), PROBABILISTIC SEQUENTIAL CLASS ANALYSIS, EPSILON(ENCOURAGING POSITIVE SOCIAL INTERACTION WHILE LEARNING ON-LINE), MDS(MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING), IMMEX(INTERACTIVE MULTI-MEDIA EXERCISES), IRT(ITEM RESPONSE THEORY), NEURAL NETWORK MODELING, KNOWLEDGE SHARING, EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY
Abstract: (U) This paper presents a basic introduction to some popular stochastic analysis methods from an unbiased disciplinary perspective. Examples ranging from fields as diverse as defense analysis, cognitive science, and instruction are illustrated throughout to demonstrate the variety of applications that benefit from such stochastic analysis methods and models. Two applications of longitudinal stochastic analysis methods to collaborative and cognitive training environments are discussed in detail. The first application applies a combination of latent mixed Markov modeling and multidimensional scaling for modeling, analyzing, and supporting the process of online knowledge sharing. In the second application, a combination of iterative nonlinear machine learning algorithms is applied to identify latent classes of problem-solving strategies. The examples illustrated in this paper are instances of an increasing global trend toward interdisciplinary research. As this trend continues to grow, research that takes advantage of the gaps and overlaps in analytical methodologies between disciplines will save time, effort, and research funds.
ADA465295
Predicting Group Performance Using Cohesion and Social Network Density: A Comparative Analysis
Personal Author(s): Peterson, Frederick W
Report Date: Mar 2007
Media Count: 44 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *PREDICTIONS, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *MEASURING INSTRUMENTS, *COHESION, EDUCATION, VARIABLES, BEHAVIOR, FACTOR ANALYSIS, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, PERCEPTION(PSYCHOLOGY), PHYSICAL FITNESS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, INTERACTIONS, LITERATURE SURVEYS, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY)
Identifiers: (U) *PREDICTOR VARIABLES, *SOCIAL NETWORK DENSITY, *GROUP COHESION, SOCIAL NETWORK RELATIONS, TASK COHESION, GROUP PERFORMANCE, ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE, ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT, PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE, TEAM PERFORMANCE, MULTITRAIT MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS
Abstract: (U) Group performance has been an important topic as evidenced by an extensive amount of literature that supports a positive relationship between group cohesion and group performance. Social network researchers also have found a positive relationship between group cohesion and group performance using social network density as a proxy for cohesion. The traditional cohesion construct is measured using an attitudinal instrument that relies on member perceptions aggregated at the group level. The social network density construct, on the other hand, is based on social network relations. These relations are based on behaviors and actual member interactions and relationships. Although both cohesion measures have been shown to predict group performance, it is important for leaders to understand the subtle differences between them so that they can better understand how to influence them. A study of 672 students in 48 groups provided empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between task cohesion and group performance, while a negative relationship was found for social cohesion and friendship network density relating to performance. Results also indicate a significant relationship between group cohesion and social network density, suggesting that social network density could be used as a proxy for group cohesion.
ADA464370
Defense Science Board 2006 Summer Study on 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Volume 2: Critical Capabilities and Enabling Technologies
Report Date: Feb 2007
Media Count: 128 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, *NATIONAL SECURITY, *MISSIONS, *MILITARY CAPABILITIES, *COUNTERTERRORISM, *MILITARILY CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES, *OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR, STABILIZATION, EXTRACTION, MAN MACHINE SYSTEMS, POSTWAR OPERATIONS, HOMELAND DEFENSE, MACHINE TRANSLATION, PANEL(COMMITTEE), ALL WEATHER, PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS, SURVEILLANCE, LEARNING, MASS DESTRUCTION WEAPONS, DATA MANAGEMENT, TRAINING, DETECTORS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES)
Identifiers: (U) *OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES, *CRITICAL CAPABILITIES, SSTR(STABILITY SECURITY TRANSITION AND RECONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS), FAILING STATES, FAILED STATES, NATION BUILDING, NONSTATE ACTORS, HUMAN TERRAIN PREPARATION, RAPID TRAINING, AUTOMATED LANGUAGE PROCESSING, SOCIAL MODELING, CULTURAL MODELING, BEHAVIOR MODELING, UBIQUITOUS OBSERVATION, ALL WEATHER SURVEILLANCE, INFORMATION EXTRACTION, CONTEXTUAL EXPLOITATION, RAPIDLY TAILORED EFFECTS, INFLUENCE OPERATIONS, WMD PROTECTION, TIME-CRITICAL STRIKES
Abstract: (U) This volume (II) is the report of the Critical Capabilities and Enabling Technologies panel of the Defense Science Board 2006 Summer Study on 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors. The Capabilities Panel was charged to do the following: (1) examine the operational missions that the U.S. military might be called upon to perform in support of emerging national security objectives; (2) identify new operational capabilities that would be needed to successfully accomplish those missions; and (3) identify the critical science, technology, and other related enablers of the desired capabilities. The panel looked to the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) for help in identifying operational missions. The missions highlighted in the QDR are as follows: defeat terrorist networks, prevent acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), defend the homeland, and shape nations at strategic crossroads. To these missions the panel added stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations. This addition was made based on the belief that SSTR operations will be an important mission in the future, just as they are today in Iraq and Afghanistan. The decision to concentrate on the missions highlighted in the QDR, with the addition of SSTR, forces this study away from an examination of conventional warfare and toward more nontraditional missions and capabilities. Following an introductory chapter, chapters 2-3 explain the methodology used by the panel to examine the five selected missions and the process by which the most important capabilities, their enabling technology areas, and the constituent technologies that underpin them were identified. Chapters 4-7 examine each of the capabilities in greater detail, making judgments and recommendations on how the department can best achieve the desired capabilities. Chapter 8 discusses technology push as it relates to capability achievement. The report concludes with a summary of its key findings and recommendations.
ADA466574
Integration of Social Sciences in Terrorism Modelling: Issues, Problems and Recommendations
Personal Author(s): Resnyansky, L
Report Date: Feb 2007
Media Count: 82 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MODELS, *TERRORISM, *SOCIAL SCIENCES, TERRORISTS, NETWORKS, BEHAVIOR, AUSTRALIA, THREATS, ORGANIZATIONS
Identifiers: (U) INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH, FOREIGN REPORTS, THREAT ANTICIPATION, THREAT REDUCTION, THREAT PERCEPTION, CULTURAL SIMULATIONS, THREAT ASSESSMENT, POLITICAL VIOLENCE
Abstract: This report identifies and discusses issues and problems related to the integration of social scientific knowledge in terrorism modelling. It analyses the state of the art in the area of modelling the origins and causes of terrorism and other forms of political violence; terrorists behaviour; the structure of terrorist organisations and networks; terrorism threat; and influence strategies and actions directed towards terrorism threat anticipation and minimisation.
ADA460396
Modeling Macro-Cognitive Influence on Information Sharing between Members of a Joint Team
Personal Author(s): Burnett, Steven F
Report Date: Dec 2006
Media Count: 255 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY PERSONNEL, *INFORMATION EXCHANGE, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, *CULTURE, *PERSONALITY, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, WAR GAMES, MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS, COOPERATION, QUESTIONNAIRES, PERSONALITY TESTS, HETEROGENEITY, THESES, LITERATURE SURVEYS, INTEROPERABILITY, THEORY
Identifiers: (U) *CULTURAL DIFFERENCES, *PERSONALITY DIFFERENCES, *JOINT TEAM EFFECTIVENESS, MILITARY TEAM EFFECTIVENESS, CULTURAL ORIENTATION, MILITARY TRANSFORMATION, AGENT-BASED MODELING, JOINT MILITARY TEAMS, PERSONALITY STEREOTYPES, SERVICE PERSONALITY PROFILES, TEAM COGNITION, MULTICULTURAL TEAMS, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS, INFORMATION SHARING, HUMAN BEHAVIOR REPRESENTATION, CULTURAL QUESTIONNAIRES
Abstract: (U) Research exploring the effectiveness of joint military teams lacks the empirical robustness found in similar multicultural team research from the business domain. This research study broadens the study of effective military teams through an assessment of the factors that influence a joint team's effectiveness by capitalizing on the business and psychological communities' exploration of successful team performance. Specifically, this research examines several key elements of poor team effectiveness identified by the business community in three empirical studies. The first study examined cultural orientation and service personality using two survey instruments: the Matsumoto Cultural Styles Questionnaire and the Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience Five Factor Inventory (NEO FFI). The results showed that cultural and personality differences exist at significant levels between the services. The second study examined team information sharing processes in a war game environment composed of homogeneous and heterogeneous four-person teams. The results revealed that participants on heterogeneous teams, cued to the presence of cultural and personality differences among the team members, performed as well as homogeneous teams. The third study expanded the knowledge space of the team experiment by developing an agent-based model to replicate the war game. The model accurately represented the experimental data, confirming the author's hypothesis that computational models coded with actual data sets from human experimentation are more robust than models coded with notional data sets. The results demonstrate that joint team effectiveness improves by incorporating methodologies used in the business and simulation science communities.
ADA471452
Simultaneous Inference of Places, Activities, and Behavioral Classes in Maritime GPS Traces
Personal Author(s): Davis, George B, Carley, Kathleen M
Report Date: Nov 2006
Media Count: 13 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM, *MERCHANT VESSELS, *MARITIME INDUSTRY, ALGORITHMS, MODELS, GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE, BEHAVIOR, HUMANS, STATISTICAL INFERENCE
Identifiers: (U) MACHINE LEARNING, GPS(GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEMS), GRAPHICAL MODELS, CRF(CONDITIONAL RANDOM FIELDS), CASOS(CENTER FOR COMPUTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ORGANIZATION SYSTEMS)
Abstract: (U) Previous work has shown that activities and places of interest can be extracted from GPS traces of human movements using behavioral models based on conditional random fields (CRFs). In this paper, we adapt and extend this work in two ways. First, we apply the framework to analysis of a vehicle-tracking maritime environment, analyzing GPS data from a 5 day surveillance of merchant marine ships conducting exercises in the English channel. Secondly, we expand the model to perform a broader population analysis segmenting the population into several classes with distinct behavioral models. Empirical results show that our algorithm is successful in inferring locations of interest, but makes only coarse distinction in activity inference. In clustering behaviors, it successfully divides agents with highly localized activities from those servicing distant ports.
ADA460549
The Relation between Sociometric Choices and Group Cohesion
Personal Author(s): Salo, Mikael
Report Date: Nov 2006
Media Count: 33 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *ARMY PERSONNEL, *COHESION, *FINLAND, *SOCIOMETRICS, ARMY RESEARCH, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), CORRELATION, MENTAL HEALTH, BEHAVIOR, QUESTIONNAIRES
Identifiers: (U) *GROUP COHESION, *FINNISH CONSCRIPT SERVICE, FINNISH DEFENCE FORCES, SOCIOMETRY, PEER BONDING, LEADER BONDING, UNIT PERFORMANCE, WELL BEING, PE633007
Abstract: (U) This research examined the relations between sociometric choices and group cohesion in soldiers in the Finnish Conscript Service. Data were collected from records and by survey and sociometric questionnaires given to 537 group members in 47 squads near the end of their 6 to 12 months of conscript training in Finland. Results showed moderate, significant correlations between the number of sociometric choices received and perceived cohesion such that Soldiers who were more often chosen as a friend or a combat partner felt that there was more cohesion in their group. Also, Soldiers who received more sociometric choices had higher expected personal and group performance, better performance as rated by their instructors, more positive attitudes toward military service and future refresher training, greater well-being during conscript service, and fewer exemptions from duty during their service. Groups where Soldiers made more in-group sociometric choices also were more cohesive based on questionnaire measures of cohesion. Overall, the findings suggest that individual sociometric choices and group-level sociometric cohesiveness are related modestly but positively to questionnaire-based cohesion measures and a wide range of criteria covering performance, attitudinal, and behavioral outcomes.
ADA458489
A Platoon-Level Model of Communication Flow and the Effects on Operator Performance
Personal Author(s): Kilduff, Patricia W, Swoboda, Jennifer C, Katz, Joshua
Report Date: Nov 2006
Media Count: 78 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *INFORMATION EXCHANGE, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *COMPUTER OPERATORS, *SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, *POCKET COMPUTERS, *MICROCOMPUTERS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, ARMY PERSONNEL, PLATOON LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, MESSAGE PROCESSING, PERFORMANCE(ENGINEERING), RELIABILITY, QUALITY, USER NEEDS
Identifiers: (U) *LAP TOP COMPUTERS, *PERSONAL DIGITAL ASSISTANTS, LAP TOP DISPLAYS, WRIST-MOUNTED DISPLAYS, FCS(FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEM), C3TRACE(COMMAND CONTROL AND COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUES FOR RELIABLE ASSESSMENT OF CONCEPT EXECUTION), RECEIVED MESSAGES, INTERRUPTED MESSAGES, *INFORMATION FLOW, INFORMATION QUALITY, USE STUDIES
Abstract: (U) The Future Combat System (FCS) initiative is at the center of the Army's Objective Force Vision. The Army Vision (2010) states that U.S. forces must have "information superiority: the capability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary's ability to do the same." In other words, the Future Force will be empowered by dominant situational understanding. To predict how proposed systems and displays will impact situational understanding and decision making, the U.S. Army Research Laboratory's Human Research and Engineering Directorate used the tool C3TRACE (command, control, and communication: techniques for reliable assessment of concept execution). C3TRACE is a modeling environment in which one can develop multiple concept models for any size organization, staffed by any number of people, using any type of information technology, performing any number of functions and tasks, and under various communication and information loads. Among the performance measures tracked are Soldier utilization; the number of messages received, dropped, and interrupted; and the degree to which the information is available to support Soldier decision making. C3TRACE was used to develop a platoon-level model of an FCS conceptual configuration in support of the situational understanding as an enabler for the unit of action maneuver team Soldiers Army Technology Objective. The platoon model assumed wrist-mounted displays for the dismounted Soldiers and laptop-type displays for the mounted Soldiers. In general, the Soldiers using the laptop-type display were able to fully process more of their incoming messages and made no decisions with poor information quality. On the other hand, the majority of the Soldiers using the personal digital assistant had high utilization, higher numbers of dropped and interrupted messages, and decisions made with poor information quality.
ADA460547
The Relation between Group-Level Characteristics and Group Cohesion
Personal Author(s): Salo, Mikael
Report Date: Nov 2006
Media Count: 34 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *PLATOON LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, *ARMY PERSONNEL, *COHESION, *FINLAND, ARMY RESEARCH, PREDICTIONS, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), COMPARISON, DEMOGRAPHY, VARIABLES, MILITARY TRAINING, MENTAL HEALTH, BEHAVIOR, QUESTIONNAIRES
Identifiers: (U) *GROUP COHESION, *GROUP CHARACTERISTICS, PEER BONDING, LEADER BONDING, ORGANIZATIONAL BONDING, INSTITUTIONAL BONDING, UNIT PERFORMANCE, FINNISH DEFENCE FORCES, FINNISH CONSCRIPT SERVICE, PERSONAL GROWTH, SOCIAL SKILLS, PREDICTOR VARIABLES, PLATOON DIFFERENCES, PE633007
Abstract: (U) This research examined the differences in cohesion among platoons in the Finnish conscript service and the relations between platoon cohesion and an array of outcome criteria. Data were collected from records and by questionnaires given to 514 platoon members in 21 platoons near the end of their 6 to 12 months of conscript training. Results showed that mean expected and rated performance, mental state, sense of personal growth, social skills aptitude, attitudes toward refresher training and national defense, and good conduct were related overall to strong platoon mean perceived cohesion. Platoon size was not significantly related to cohesion. The different cohesion components (peer, leader, organizational, and institutional bonding) were related differently to various predictor and outcome variables.
ADA464073
Analyzing Adversaries as Complex Adaptive Systems
Personal Author(s): Lichtblau, Dale E, Haugh, Brian A, Larsen, Gregory N, Mayfield, Terry
Report Date: Oct 2006
Media Count: 95 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, MODELS, ENEMY, BEHAVIOR, ADAPTATION, COUNTERTERRORISM
Identifiers: (U) CAS(COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS), ABM(AGENT-BASED MODELING), COMPLEXITY THEORY, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, ASYMMETRIC THREATS, SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS
Abstract: (U) The objective of this study was to assess information technology tools to counter asymmetric threats when considered as complex adaptive systems (CASs). We focused primarily on the use of agent-based modeling and simulation technology. This report describes both agent-based modeling (ABM) and an agent-based model developed to explore the utility of ABM technology to counter asymmetric threats. We conclude that while terrorist groups considered qua systems are undoubtedly adaptive, it is not obvious that they are complex in the strict theoretical sense of that term. As a consequence, it is not clear that terrorist threats are amenable to the analytic techniques afforded by complexity theory. Moreover, while ABM technology may offer significant value in many fields, it is not at all clear that the technology offers tactical value to counter these growing asymmetric threats. We argue that human behavior is too complex and too poorly understood to be accurately modeled in anything but a simplified and unenlightening way using the technology and agent-based modeling techniques currently available particularly for tactical advantage. The real value potentially inestimable value lies in the systematic and methodical process of making explicit the assumptions regarding the fundamental factors governing agent behavior used in the models.
ADA456996
Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) Security Issues and Approaches
Personal Author(s): Doan, Dung
Report Date: Sep 2006
Media Count: 61 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *NATIONAL SECURITY, *OFF THE SHELF EQUIPMENT, *SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, *COMMERCIAL EQUIPMENT, CONTROL, BEHAVIOR, GRAMMARS, CASE STUDIES, SPACE SHUTTLES, REACTIVITIES, ENVIRONMENTS, PERFORMANCE TESTS
Identifiers: (U) *COMMERCIAL OFF THE SHELF, PAGES MODEL-BASED TESTING, TESTING AUTOMATION, REACTIVE AND REAL-TIME SYSTEM TESTING, AEG(ATTRIBUTED EVENT GRAMMARS), ENVIRONMENT BEHAVIOR MODELS., COTS(COMMERCIAL OFF THE SHELF)
Abstract: (U) We explored the effectiveness of using attributed event grammars (AEG) based environment behavior models as a method for testing and analyzing real-time, reactive software systems. The AEG specifies possible event traces and provides a uniform approach for automatically generating and executing test cases. We have demonstrated the approach through a case study (Paderborn Shuttle System Control Software) and performed three kinds of experiments: software correctness testing, system performance analysis and study of design alternatives.
ADA457186
The Mayaguez Incident: An Organizational Theory Analysis
Personal Author(s): Lengel, Edward J, Rambo, Charles R, Rodriguez, Shelley A, Tyynismaa, Michael
Report Date: Sep 2006
Media Count: 197 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY OPERATIONS, *AIR FORCE, *MARINE CORPS, *RESCUES, *DECISION MAKING, *ORGANIZATION THEORY, *MERCHANT VESSELS, MILITARY HISTORY, VULNERABILITY, THESES, CASUALTIES, CAMBODIA, PRESIDENT(UNITED STATES), HELICOPTERS, FAILURE, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, LESSONS LEARNED, CRISIS MANAGEMENT, EMERGENCIES
Identifiers: (U) *MAYAGUEZ RESCUE, *KOH TANG ISLAND, SS MAYAGUEZ, GERALD R FORD ADMINISTRATION, EXECUTIVE-LEVEL DECISION MAKING, STRUCTURAL CONTINGENCY MODEL, FRAMES OF REFERENCE MODEL, KHMER ROUGE GOVERNMENT, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, SECRETARY OF STATE, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, GULF OF SIAM
Abstract: (U) Applying selected concepts of organizational theory to the Mayaguez incident of 1975 leads to a more comprehensive understanding of events and more accurate lessons learned. Application of organizational theory to the incident demonstrates that the decision processes at the executive level left the military operation vulnerable to failure. Henry Mintzberg's structural contingency model and Lee Bowman and Terrence Deal's frames model within organizational theory are applied to the executive-level decisions made during the operation. The rationale behind focusing on executive-level decision making is twofold: first, it is where final critical decisions were made, and second, military operations cannot take place without an executive-level authorization. The Mayaguez crisis was rife with potential pitfalls and, though President Ford was equipped with an excellent organization of intelligent, competent personnel, the result was unnecessary loss of life. Publicly, the operation was a success and President Ford was the savior of the Mayaguez crew. To the military, the operation was an embarrassment, all because of failures that occurred within the organizational structure and poor decision making. Application of organizational theory provides an avenue for analysis of the military operation within the Mayaguez rescue.
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ADA457197
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Waterside Security Alternatives for Force Protection of Navy Ships and Installations Using X3D Graphics and Agent-Based Simulation
Personal Author(s): Sullivan, Patrick J
Report Date: Sep 2006
Media Count: 207 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *NATIONAL SECURITY, *NAVAL VESSELS, *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, *JAVA PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE, *SIMULATION LANGUAGES, SCENARIOS, TOOLS, REPORTS, PARALLEL PROCESSING, INSTALLATION, PROTECTION, GRAPHICS, HOMELAND DEFENSE, TERRORISM, REPRODUCIBILITY, COUNTERTERRORISM, DEFENSE PLANNING, NAVAL SHORE FACILITIES, RANGE(EXTREMES), BEHAVIOR, PROCUREMENT, SCALING FACTOR, PLANNING, THESES, ATTACK, SOURCES, METHODOLOGY
Identifiers: (U) VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS, X3D, DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION, SIMKIT, FORCE PROTECTION, ANTI-TERRORISM, XML(EXTENSIBLE MARKUP LANGUAGE), XML, XMSF(EXTENSIBLE MODELING AND SIMULATION FRAMEWORK), SAVAGE, DISTRIBUTED INTERACTIVE SIMULATION DIS-JAVA-VRML, DIS-XML
Abstract: (U) The individuals charged with the task of planning, developing and implementing force protection measures both at the unit and installation level must consider numerous factors in formulating the best defensive posture. Currently, force protection professionals utilize multiple sources of information regarding capabilities of systems that are available, and combine that knowledge with the requirements of their installation to create an overall plan. A crucial element missing from this process is the ability to determine, prior to system procurement, the most effective combination of systems and employment for a wide range of possible terrorist attack scenarios. This thesis is inspired by the work done by James Harney, LT, USN (2003). The thesis will expand the Anti-Terrorism Force Protection Tool developed during the original thesis by including the capability of testing force protection measures in multiple scenarios by utilizing models of force protection equipment and forces, virtual worlds of existing naval facilities, and terrorist agents that exhibit intent and behavioral characteristics which can test the effectiveness of the force protection equipment used. The result of this work is a scalable and repeatable methodology for generating large-scale, agent-based simulations for AT/FP problem domains providing 3D visualization, report generation, and statistical analysis.
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ADA457312
An Analytic Framework for the War of Ideas
Personal Author(s): Schramm, Harrison C
Report Date: Sep 2006
Media Count: 85 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *PROPAGATION, *ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), *SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *INDIGENOUS POPULATION, *COUNTERTERRORISM, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, THESES, PERCEPTION(PSYCHOLOGY), PUBLIC OPINION, PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE, DIFFUSION, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, INTERACTIONS, ISLAM
Identifiers: (U) *EXTREMIST IDEOLOGIES, *SPREAD OF IDEOLOGY, *INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION, *WAR OF IDEAS, BELIEFS, DETERMINISTIC MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS, DALEY-KENDALL MODEL, RUMOR PROPAGATION, IDEOLOGY AS DISEASE, EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS, EPIDEMIC MODELS, INFORMATION FLOW, PROPAGATION OF IDEOLOGY
Abstract: (U) One of the objectives listed in the 2003 "National Strategy for Combating Terrorism" is to win the "War of Ideas." This thesis seeks to place an analytic framework around this war. The goal is to create a methodology for considering alternatives and some concrete metrics with which to compare courses of action. The fundamental assumption is that one-to-one (i.e., interpersonal) communication is the most important in spreading ideas. The tools used are deterministic and stochastic models that were originally developed for infectious diseases and rumor propagation. The fundamental idea is that when two people in the population connect (e.g., through direct contact, phone, or e-mail, etc.), the ideology may be spread. These models are similar to traditional epidemic models. Many extensions to the idea of the spread of ideology as disease are possible and some are explored in this work. The author extends previous work by placing ideology in a greater social context. He introduces two diametrically opposed ideas and models their flow. He refers to the proponents of these ideas as the "supporters" and "contrarians." He considers the case in which both the supporters and contrarians openly vie for a greater share of support from the public. This case is similar to a political campaign in the United States without the influence of media. He also considers the case in which the supporters are able to openly propagate their message, but the contrarians only interact when supporters try to convert them. He believes this is the case where there is a small but dedicated extremist subpopulation. The results show that under the model assumptions, a relatively small number of contrarians are required to overcome a large increase in the supporters.
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ADA457150
The Importance of Artificial Intelligence for Naval Intelligence Training Simulations
Personal Author(s): Sweat, Patricia A
Report Date: Sep 2006
Media Count: 83 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, *NAVAL TRAINING, SIMULATION, DECISION MAKING, THESES, COMBAT INFORMATION CENTERS, NAVAL INTELLIGENCE, MAN COMPUTER INTERFACE, THREAT EVALUATION, FLEETS(SHIPS)
Identifiers: (U) CGF(COMPUTER GENERATED FORCES), ITT(INTELLIGENCE TEAM TRAINER), ARG(AMPHIBIOUS READY GROUP), MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS, NAVAL SIMUATIONS, AIR DEFENSE SIMULATION, NAVAL AIR DEFENSE, INTERACTIVE TRAINING SYSTEMS, WATCHSTANDER TRAINING
Abstract: (U) Agent technology is widely deployed in numerous commercial areas such as networking, modeling, and software; however, this technology remains under-utilized by operational organizations within the United States Navy. This thesis will investigate the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) for military training simulations, particularly in the training of intelligence personnel in the Navy. The Computer Generated Forces (CGF) of the current Intelligence Team Trainer's (ITT) system initiate actions as a result of rigid scripted programming. Forces will execute the same actions regardless of what the user decides to do, resulting in highly unrealistic scenarios. For instance, in a scenario where an ARG (Amphibious Ready Group) transits the Strait of Hormuz, the response of Iranian P3 or an incoming dhow would be the same whether the battle group utilized frigate escorts or not. This thesis will produce very simple, but less rigid AI, which can easily be made more complex and intelligent in later phases. Demonstrations and assessments will validate the importance of AI integration for the ITT. Furthermore, this analysis of the requirements for the AI will assist training commands and combat information centers fleet wide with the range of realistic combat-related possibilities needed in order to ensure a fully capable 'combat ready' watch team.
ADA455191
Who Thinks Who Knows Who? Socio-cognitive Analysis of Email Networks
Personal Author(s): Pathak, Nishith, Mane, Sandeep, Srivastava, Jaideep
Report Date: 21 Jul 2006
Media Count: 21 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *ORGANIZATIONS, *SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, *COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS, *ELECTRONIC MAIL, ORGANIZATION THEORY, BERNOULLI DISTRIBUTION, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS
Identifiers: (U) *EMAIL COMMUNICATION NETWORKS, *SOCIO-COGNITIVE NETWORKS, *BELIEF DIVERGENCE, INTERPERSONAL INTERACTIONS, E-MAIL, ENRON EMAIL DATA, SOCIAL NETWORKS
Abstract: (U) Interpersonal interaction plays an important role in organizational dynamics, and understanding these interaction networks is a key issue for any organization, since these can be tapped to facilitate various organizational processes. However, the approaches of collecting data about them using surveys/interviews are fraught with problems of scalability, logistics and reporting biases, especially since such surveys may be perceived to be intrusive. Widespread use of computer networks for organizational communication provides a unique opportunity to overcome these difficulties and automatically map the organizational networks with a high degree of detail and accuracy. This paper describes an effective and scalable approach for modeling organizational networks by tapping into an organization's email communication. The approach models communication between actors as nonstationary Bernoulli trials and Bayesian inference is used for estimating model parameters over time. This approach is useful for socio-cognitive analysis (who knows who knows who) of organizational communication networks. Using this approach, novel measures for analysis of (i) closeness between actors perceptions about such organizational networks (agreement), (ii) divergence of an actor's perceptions about organizational network from reality (misperception) are explained. Using the Enron email data, we show that these techniques provide sociologists with a new tool to understand organizational networks.
ADA463781
Can Judgment be Developed: A Cast Study of Three Proven Leaders
Personal Author(s): Beaudoin, Slade H
Report Date: 16 Jun 2006
Media Count: 75 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *LEADERSHIP, *EDUCATION, *MILITARY APPLICATIONS, *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, ENVIRONMENTS, MODELS, LEADERSHIP TRAINING, DOCTRINE, CASTINGS, THESES, BIOGRAPHIES, CASE STUDIES, THEORY, SCHOOLS, DECISION MAKING
Identifiers: (U) *MILITARY LEADERSHIP, LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT, GENERALSHIP, LEADERSHIP DOCTRINE, JUDGMENT DEVELOPMENT THEORY, INTUITION, MILITARY EDUCATION, MDMP(MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS)
Abstract: (U) This thesis examines if judgment can be developed. A review of the development of Generals Patton, Eisenhower, and Bradley provides a biography outlining the commonalities in their growth. Subsequently, existing judgment development models are analyzed for use in this study. The development of the synthesized general is overlaid on the judgment development models. In addition to ascertaining that judgment can be developed, this thesis asserts that experience is paramount in the process. Further, only through understanding the environment in which a decision was made, repeated exposure to similar experiences, and appropriate feedback can an experience be appropriately stored and recalled later. Finally, this thesis projects a method to enhance judgment in both academic and organizational environments. MILITARY LEADERSHIP, LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT, MODELS, GENERALSHIP, BIOGRAPHIES, LEADERSHIP DOCTRINE, DECISION MAKING, JUDGMENT DEVELOPMENT THEORY, INTUITION, MILITARY EDUCATION, MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS (MDMP), CASE STUDIES
ADA463373
Metrics for Uncertainty in Organizational Decision-Making
Personal Author(s): Lawless, W F, Chaudron, Laurent Abubucker, C P
Report Date: Jun 2006
Media Count: 33 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *ROBOTS, *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, *SOFTWARE METRICS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, FIELD CONDITIONS, ORGANIZATION THEORY, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, SYMPOSIA
Identifiers: (U) *MAS(MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS), BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) An agent's behavior is guided by static information from observation that has converged into a stable world view, whether in human-social or computational-agent reality. Examples of convergent world views for human agents abound as single-sided stories, strongly held religious beliefs, well-defended political perspectives, or situation awareness. These are simple, mostly linear rational descriptions of the phenomena. However, the common interaction experienced between two or more human agents reflects the need to construct bi-sided perspectives for multi-agent systems, which until now have remained mathematically intractable. To advance the mathematics of social interaction, we propose that only bi-sided or quantum computational agents will be capable of replicating social phenomena such as the dynamics of human agents, including the more difficult problem of organizational decision-making.
ADA463267
Model-Based Organization Analysis and Design for an ESG Organization
Personal Author(s): Meirina, Candra, Yu, Feili, Pattipati, Krishna R,
Kleinman, David L
Report Date: Jun 2006
Media Count: 33 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *MISSION PROFILES, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *ADAPTATION, *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, SYMPOSIA, ORGANIZATION THEORY, MARINE CORPS OPERATIONS, NAVAL OPERATIONS, TASK FORCES, INTEGRATION, DECISION MAKING, MODELS
Identifiers: (U) *COORDINATION, *LEADERSHIP ASSIGNMENT, *AGENT-BASED SIMULATION, ESG(EXPEDITIONARY STRIKE GROUPS), DDA(DISTRIBUTED DECISION-MAKING AGENT), MODEL-BASED ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK, BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) The concept of Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESGs) arose to satisfy the requirements of global war on terrorism (GWOT), when it was realized that surface warfare capabilities were needed to complement the capability of the Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs). The addition of cruiser (CG), destroyer (DDG), frigate (FFG), and submarine (SSN) assets to those of an ARG, which include an amphibious assault ship (LHA or LHD) with a Marine expeditionary unit (MEU), a dock landing ship (LSD) and an amphibious transport dock ship (LPD) provide the ESG with a highly mobile, self-sustaining force. This addition also provides the capability for an ESG to deploy independently, as well as a part of a larger joint force. The primary goal for the introduction of ESG organizational concept is to find suitable ways to integrate the Navy and Marine forces. These include exploring evolving non-traditional C2 structures, and developing the corresponding new capabilities (including introduction of new offensive and defensive weaponry). The merger between the two forces and the resulting C2 philosophy has to take into account various operational and cultural issues. In this paper, we propose systematic, but somewhat simplified, analysis of an ESG organization that allows us to abstract the mission environment, and to glean various organizational issues of interest via a model-based organizational analysis framework. The heart of the proposed framework is the utilization of an agent-based simulation to capture key organizational processes, and identify strengths and potential limitations of an organization. Based on the assessment, a set of recommendations are put forth to mitigate the potential limitations. This approach is an extension of our model-based organizational design and analysis framework, wherein an organization and its mission environment are abstracted in terms of three modeling components: decision-makers (DMs-C2 nodes), assets, and tasks.
ADA452147
The Political Economy of the United States Military Market: 1963-2005
Personal Author(s): Fussell, Judson M
Report Date: Jun 2006
Media Count: 188 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *POLITICAL SCIENCE, *ORGANIZATIONS, *ECONOMICS, *MILITARY APPLICATIONS, *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SETTING(ADJUSTING), DECISION MAKING, CHANNELS, HOLISM, GAME THEORY, CULTURE, CALCULUS, BEHAVIOR, THEORY, CONTRACTS, MARKETING, WARFARE, UNITED STATES
Abstract: (U) This dissertation examines the economic and socio-political forces that influence behavior within military organizations. The tenets of Public Choice economic theory are utilized along with special emphasis on the institutional and cultural frameworks of the military environment in order to better understand why the military market succeeds and fails. Much of the existing literature related to military science proceeds from a holistic approach, which often glosses over the micro phenomena that are crucial in understanding the dynamics of military organizations. Thus, the approach used in this research emphasizes methodological individualism and allows us to better understand the incentives and constraints that individual agents face in their decision calculus. Chapter two lays out the nature of the military market and highlights the significant economic challenges inherent in the organizational structure and the vulnerability of this market to the political environment. Of particular interest are difficulties the military faces in achieving contract performance of its members under perilous combat conditions. Chapter three develops a club-good model to explain how free-riding is constrained in a combat setting where standard economic theory would suggest contract breaches en masse. Extant empirical research is used to evaluate the validity of the theoretical model. Chapter four describes what military culture is, how it channels behavior toward more efficient outcomes and how it has evolved over the years. Additionally, game theory is used to illustrate the impacts of culture. Chapter five concludes the dissertation.
ADA453987
Mitigating Insider Threat Using Human Behavior Influence Models
Personal Author(s): Puleo, Anthony J
Report Date: Jun 2006
Media Count: 121 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ORGANIZATIONS, *INTERNAL, *THREAT EVALUATION, *BEHAVIOR, *RISK MANAGEMENT, *INFORMATION SECURITY, *PERSONNEL DETECTION, ESPIONAGE, PREDICTIONS, INFORMATION WARFARE, RISK ANALYSIS, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, OBSERVATION, STATISTICS, THESES, IDENTIFICATION, CASE STUDIES
Identifiers: (U) *INSIDER THREATS, HUMAN BEHAVIOR, RISK FACTORS, RISK PREDICTION, PREDICTOR VARIABLES, RISK-BASED MODELS, INFLUENCE MODELS, INFLUENCE MATRIX, EVENT MATRIX, MALICIOUS INSIDERS, THREAT MITIGATION, ROBERT HANSSEN, SPIES
Abstract: (U) Insider threat is rapidly becoming the largest information security problem that organizations face. With large numbers of personnel having access to internal systems, it is becoming increasingly difficult to protect organizations from malicious insiders. The typical methods of mitigating insider threat are simply not working, primarily because this threat is a people problem, and most mitigation strategies are geared towards profiling and anomaly detection, which are problematic at best. As a result, a new type of model is proposed in this thesis, one that incorporates risk management with human behavioral science. The new risk-based model focuses on observable influences that affect employees, and identifies employees with increased risk of becoming malicious insiders. The model's primary purpose is to differentiate malicious and non-malicious employees. This research details the need for the model, the model's components, and how it works. The model is tested using an in-depth case study on Robert Hanssen, the FBI's double agent who sold the Soviets secrets for more than 20 years. Implemented with the right tool, the new model has great potential for use by security personnel in their efforts to mitigate insider threat damage.
ADA458361
Systemic Operational Design (SOD): Gaining and Maintaining the Cognitive Initiative
Personal Author(s): Davison, Ketti C
Report Date: 25 May 2006
Media Count: 85 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY OPERATIONS, *DECISION MAKING, *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, *MILITARY PLANNING, *COGNITION, CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), BEHAVIOR, MILITARY ART, IRAQI WAR, AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT, TACTICAL WARFARE, STRATEGIC WARFARE, SYSTEMS APPROACH, MILITARY DOCTRINE, MAPS, THREAT EVALUATION
Identifiers: (U) *SOD(SYSTEMIC OPERATIONAL DESIGN), *MDMP(MILITARY DECISION-MAKING PROCESS), OPERATIONAL PLANNING, EBO(EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS), OPERATIONAL DESIGN, OPERATIONAL ART, JOPES(JOINT OPERATION AND PLANNING EXECUTION SYSTEM), OPERATIONAL LEVEL OF WAR, IPB(INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLESPACE), SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, THREAT MODELING, COGNITIVE MAPS, ONA(OPERATIONAL NET ASSESSMENT), ITERATIVE DESIGN
Abstract: (U) The purpose of this monograph is to demonstrate that Systemic Operational Design (SOD) is a more adaptive approach to designing military operations at the joint operational level than the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP), the Joint Operation Planning and Execution System (JOPES), and Effects-Based Operations (EBO). Systemic Operational Design gains and maintains the cognitive initiative by enabling the operational commander to recognize and exploit emerging opportunities through its unique process of iterative design. This monograph began as an investigation to determine if either Effects-Based Operations or Systemic Operational Design should replace the traditional Military Decision-Making Process. It soon became clear that these approaches do not accomplish the same functions, are not applicable at the same levels, and are not mutually exclusive. The Military Decision-Making Process originated as a tactical decision-making process, and it remains the most appropriate of the three approaches at that level. It deals with the physical threat on the ground with a decisiveness enabled by an organization of hierarchical authority. Effects-Based Operations is suitable only at the operational level. It takes the time to model the threat as a holistic system and contemplates the desired behavior changes various actions on that system would produce. It exceeds the physical realm of the tactical and explicitly translates strategic directives into tactical effects. Systemic Operational Design is a holistic approach that introduces the discrete element of design to inform planning. It is abstract and conceptual. It creates a cognitive map and continually updates it by the learning that occurs through action. Fusing Systemic Operational Design with the Military Decision-Making Process might be the best way ahead for operational planning and design.
ADA449968
Is Systemic Operation Design Capable of Reducing Significantly Bias in Operational Level Planning Caused by Military Organizational Culture?
Personal Author(s): Bell, Christopher J
Report Date: 25 May 2006
Media Count: 98 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *WARFARE, *SYSTEMS APPROACH, *BIAS, *CULTURE, *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, *MILITARY PLANNING, DECISION MAKING, COGNITION, RIGIDITY, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, PERCEPTION (PSYCHOLOGY), ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
Identifiers: (U) *ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE, OPERATIONAL LEVEL OF WAR, CAMPAIGN PLANNING, CAMPAIGN DESIGN, *SYSTEMATIC OPERATION DESIGN, KNOWLEDGE CREATION, SYSTEMS THEORY, LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS, EPISTEMOLOGY, COGNITIVE MODELS
Abstract: (U) Bias caused by organizational culture is a constant companion of military planning. Cognitive models dominated by Newtonian, mechanistic, and reductionist thinking have all but fixed bias at the operational level of war where environmental orientation to a rival is rarely more than an ideological mirage. The results are brittle campaign plans that are predictable by any thinking competitor. Systemic Operation Design claims to address this problem by re-orienting users to each unique problem they face. It rejects the unconscious application of previous experiences and cognitive templates as a dangerous trap that is more likely to produce incoherent and flawed actions than effective operational art and science. As a holistic approach, it seeks to self-consciously and cognitively orient users to the problem at hand before investigating the logic underlying the form of the system that connects them to a given rival entity. Instead of working in reverse from teleological, mechanistic, rigid, and pre-determined strategic end-states to possible actions likely to deliver them, the approach seeks to frame the logical terms for planning to begin while recognizing that the most likely outcome of a given action is a series of new issues that will alter the dynamic and adaptive system, preferably in the strategic direction desired. It sets as its goal the manipulation of the evolution of systemic changes resulting from actions or threatened actions, which create circumstances that facilitate one's own logic and are self-regulating. This paper examines the continuing problem of bias caused by military organizational culture and an addiction to the rigid application of reductionist epistemologies. It then investigates how Systemic Operation Design seeks to overcome the problems it claims to address, and concludes by outlining the principal future organizational challenges that its application might demand.
ADA450095
Effective Teaming for Expeditionary Combat Support
Personal Author(s): Stewart, Melanie J
Report Date: May 2006
Media Count: 69 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT, *TACTICAL DATA SYSTEMS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMBAT SUPPORT, MILITARY COMMANDERS, VALUE ENGINEERING, DECISION THEORY, GROUP DYNAMICS, DEPLOYMENT
Identifiers: (U) DECISION ANALYSIS, VALUE FOCUSED THINKING, MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION ANALYSIS, VALUE HIERARCHY, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, TEAMING THEORY, GROUP DYNAMICS, AEROSPACE EXPEDITIONARY FORCE PLANNING
Abstract: (U) The purpose of this research was to study and assess the teaming process employed by Aerospace Expeditionary Force Center (AEFC) when sourcing and aggregating Expeditionary Combat Support (ECS) assets and develop a decision analysis-based value model for their internal use. The study gathered and analyzed input from recently deployed commanders and homestation commanders to solidify factors of importance in relation to team cohesion and mission effectiveness. In addition, it compared AEFC sourcing cell and field commander inputs on the importance of factors that contribute to meeting Combatant Commander and homestation mission objectives. The culmination of this effort is the development of a value model to guide members of the ECS sourcing team toward maximizing effective utilization of available assets within the constraints of deployment rule sets. Results indicate that a common value model cannot be applied to all ECS functional areas individually due to wide variance in operational stress and career field health levels. However, the research determined that a value model can be used to assess and compare the overall desirability of ECS sourcing solutions. Additionally, it identified several value measures for AEFC leadership to consider using during their teaming analysis process.
ADA449256
Provincial Reconstruction Teams: Afghanistan vs. Iraq -- Should We Have a Standard Model?
Personal Author(s): Drolet, John D
Report Date: 01 May 2006
Media Count: 20 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY PERSONNEL, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *CIVILIAN PERSONNEL, *POSTWAR OPERATIONS, *IRAQI WAR, *AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT, STABILIZATION, COOPERATION, OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), MODELS
Identifiers: (U) *PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS, *NATION BUILDING, CIVILIAN MILITARY RELATIONS, INTERAGENCY COOPERATION, ENDURING FREEDOM OPERATION, IRAQI FREEDOM OPERATION, STABILITY OPERATIONS, CIVILIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE
Abstract: (U) As the war in Iraq begins its fourth year of existence, the security situation has demonstrated remarkable progress. Within this more stable environment, the need for long-term nation building is emerging. With the birth of a new government built on democratic principles, there is a significant requirement for assistance in the creation of institutions that will be enduring. One such interagency tool for providing this assistance is the creation of Provincial Reconstruction Teams. The current formula in Afghanistan is a military-centric organization with significant Coalition participation, while the emerging concept in Iraq calls for a more balanced interagency approach led by the United States. This paper will examine the structure and accomplishments of Provincial Reconstruction Teams to date in Afghanistan, compare them to emerging initiatives in Iraq, and make recommendations for future planning and employment of U.S. government assistance in a post-conflict environment.
ADA449308
The Impact of Religious and Political Affiliation on Strategic Military Decisions and Policy Recommendations
Personal Author(s): Millonig, William
Report Date: 15 Mar 2006
Media Count: 21 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *GROUP DYNAMICS, MILITARY PERSONNEL, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), POLITICAL PARTIES, RELIGION, MILITARY PSYCHOLOGY
Identifiers: (U) CULTURALLY HOMOGENEOUS GROUPS, MINDSET, CONSERVATIVE VIEWS, NATIONAL POLICY DECISIONS, DIVERSITY OF THOUGHT, MILITARY CULTURE, GROUPTHINK, RATIONAL DECISION MODEL, CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN VALUES, RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, POLITICAL AFFILIATION, IN-GROUPS
Abstract: (U) This paper analyzes the impact of a culturally homogeneous group on strategic decision making and policy recommendations. The United States military's organizational climate has shifted steadily to the right since the Viet Nam War. Today's Armed Forces are increasingly identified with conservative Christian and Republican values. This change in group dynamics can inhibit the decision making process by preventing a thorough review of relevant courses of action, in accordance with the Rational Decision Model. The nature of in-groups and their influence on the decision process can have a deleterious effect on sound decision making, even if only inadvertently. Today's conservative voice has a strong influence on national policy decisions. This makes it imperative that strategic leaders understand the culture shift in today's military, as well as how group dynamics can limit creativity and proper analysis of alternatives. The failure to do so can cause a divergence of opinion between military and civilian leaders and thereby widen the gap in civil military relations.
ADA449531
Improving the Efficiency of the Interagency
Personal Author(s): Clement, David J
Report Date: 03 Mar 2006
Media Count: 25 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *ORGANIZATIONAL REALIGNMENT, STABILITY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, ORGANIZATION THEORY, POLICIES
Identifiers: (U) INTERAGENCY EFFICIENCY, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD, NSC(NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL), NATIONAL STRATEGIC POLICYMAKING, LEAD-AGENCY MODEL, NSC-CENTRIC MODEL
Abstract: (U) In 1986, by mandating jointness, the Goldwater-Nichols Act brought about dramatic changes in how the Department of Defense (DOD) operates. Today, some call for similar changes throughout the interagency in order improve efficiency. Three options are offered by reform advocates regarding interagency efficiency: use the current system (status quo), change to a lead-agency model, or change to an NSC-centric model. Some groups, especially the NSC-centric proponents, advocate significant changes to the current system. Where appropriate, such changes are discussed for each option. For each option, viability is measured using five factors: suitability (will it work?); feasibility (does the US have, or is it willing to commit, the resources to do it?); acceptability (legally and morally who is affected?); unity of effort; and risk. Because unity of effort is such a key factor, it is weighed with a 2X multiplier. After concluding analysis of the three options, a scoring matrix is provided.
ADA473012
Development and Evaluation of an Intuitive Operations Planning Process
Personal Author(s): Martin, Lora B, Bandali, Farahnaz, Rehak, Lisa, Vokac, Robert, Lamoureux, Tab
Report Date: Mar 2006
Media Count: 144 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY OPERATIONS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, LAND WARFARE, DECISION MAKING, SCHOOLS, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), MODELS, COURSES(EDUCATION), ACCEPTABILITY, TRAINING, BRIGADE LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, HUMANS, COGNITION, CANADA, TEAMS(PERSONNEL)
Identifiers: (U) FOREIGN REPORTS
Abstract: (U) This work represents the fourth phase of a project investigating the Canadian Forces (CF) Operational Planning Process (OPP) and an alternative planning process based on intuitive decision making. This is in support of a larger project, Project Minerva, focused on reexamining Command and Control (C2), specifically the CF OPP, in the Land Force in light of the implementation of digitized C2 systems. The CF OPP represents an analytic decision making process in which 1) multiple solutions to the problem must be evaluated and the best selected, and 2) evaluation of solution alternatives must be performed through exhaustive factor-by-factor comparison. Research in the cognitive sciences has suggested that a large portion of human decision making is conducted intuitively; i.e. by less formal, non-analytic processes. Thus, there may be a mismatch between the OPP as laid out in doctrine and taught at training and education institutions within the CF, and the planning process as practiced by command teams in more operational settings, especially at the Brigade level and below. Specifically, the current work includes the development of an alternative planning process based on intuitive decision making (referred to as the Intuitive Operations Planning Process or IOPP), the development of a training course for the IOPP, and an evaluation of the effectiveness of the IOPP compared to the existing CF OPP. The IOPP exhibits the best characteristics of other intuitive planning models (Kievenaar, 1997; Schmitt & Klein, 1999; Thunholm, 2005; Whitehurst, 2002) and incorporates findings from previous work investigating application of the OPP in the CF (Bruyn et al., 2005), while maintaining a large amount of the terminology, outputs generated and formal staff briefings used in the OPP in order to promote level of acceptance by CF practitioners and face validity of the IOPP.
ADA445326
Utilizing Biological Models to Determine the Recruitment of the IRA by Modeling the Voting Behavior of Sinn Fein
Personal Author(s): Schaub, Erika A
Report Date: Mar 2006
Media Count: 83 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *MODELS, *GROWTH(GENERAL), *POPULATION, *BEHAVIOR, *PARAMILITARY FORCES, *RECRUITING, ORGANIZATIONS, DEATH, TERRORISM, UNITED KINGDOM, POLITICAL PARTIES, CASE STUDIES, THESES, GROUP DYNAMICS, ARMY PERSONNEL, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), PREDICTIONS
Identifiers: (U) *IRA(IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY), BIOLOGICAL POPULATION MODELS, NORTHERN IRELAND, *LOTKA-VOLTERRA PREDATOR-PREY MODEL, TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, *BRITISH ARMY, SINN FEIN, GANGS, VOTING TRENDS, DEATHS PER YEAR, VIOLENT BEHAVIOR, INLA(IRISH NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY), POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION DECLINE
Abstract: (U) Sociological models have been extensively used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups and to understand their use of terrorism. Much remains to be understood, however, concerning the factors that govern the growth or decline of these groups. Sociological models are inadequate for understanding terrorist behavior because these models typically do not account for the behavior of individuals who ignore social mores. This thesis explores the use of biological population models as a means to incorporate predator-prey behavior factors into terrorist models. The thesis also demonstrates that this method is more appropriate for examining the growth and decline of terrorist organizations through the interaction of law enforcement and terrorist recruitment efforts. After analyzing the respective strengths and weaknesses of sociological and biological models, the thesis applies a biological model, the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model, to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization, and to offer predictive value that sociological models lack.
ADA446229
The Effects of Ability Homophily on Individual Performance
Personal Author(s): Gray, Michael J
Report Date: Mar 2006
Media Count: 47 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *AIR FORCE PERSONNEL, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *SELF ORGANIZING SYSTEMS, *COURSES(EDUCATION), STUDENTS, INSTRUCTORS, NONCOMMISSIONED OFFICERS, MANAGEMENT TRAINING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, PHYSICAL FITNESS, MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL, THESES, PERFORMANCE TESTS
Identifiers: (U) *ABILITY HOMOPHILY, ABILITY GROUPING, ADVICE RELATIONSHIPS, FRIENDSHIP RELATIONSHIPS, LONGITUDINAL STUDIES, INSTRUCTOR EVALUATIONS, PEER EVALUATIONS, FRIENDSHIP NETWORKS, ADVICE NETWORKS, HLM(HIERARCHICAL LINEAR MODELING), PUBLIC SPEAKING ABILITY, WRITING ABILITY, RACIAL HOMOPHILY, GENDER HOMOPHILY, EDUCATIONAL HOMOPHILY, ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE
Abstract: (U) Homophily is the sociological term for a principle that is easily observed and understood: similar people tend to associate with one another (or the well-known saying "Birds of a feather flock together"). Homophily creates divides among people with numerous demographic characteristics and causes people to surround themselves with others who are similar to themselves (McPherson et al., 2001). Race and ethnicity have the greatest influence on relationship choices followed by age, religion, education, occupation, and gender (McPherson et al., 2001). While studies of homophily of race and gender are quite common, few studies have examined homophily based on instrumental attributes such as a person's ability or intelligence. Most of the previous research on homophily related to ability comes from educational researchers. Homophily of ability could lead to grouping of people who have similar performance levels. Grouping by ability is of interest because it has been linked to increased performance in experiments involving undergraduate (Goethals, 2001) and primary (Lou et al., 1996; Tieso, 2003) school students. However, previous studies have not examined the consequences of ability grouping when it results from homophily occurring naturally rather than being imposed by a researcher or teacher. To determine if performance benefits are associated with ability homophily, a longitudinal study was conducted to measure the advice and friendship relationships of 404 adults in a military management training course. Performance was measured by an end-of-course formative test, instructor evaluations, and peer evaluations. The results confirm that ability homophily in advice relationships is related to increased performance. Ability homophily among friendship relationships was not related to increased performance.
ADA449793
Combating Terrorism: Research Priorities in the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Report Date: 10 Feb 2006
Media Count: 26 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *CIVIL DEFENSE, *STRATEGY, *ECONOMICS, *BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, *COUNTERTERRORISM, *RESEARCH MANAGEMENT, *SOCIAL SCIENCES, TERRORISTS, UNCERTAINTY, THREATS, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, ATTACK, BEHAVIOR, RISK ANALYSIS, RESILIENCE, ECONOMIC MODELS, ADJUSTMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY), TERRORISM, LAW ENFORCEMENT, PREVENTION, VULNERABILITY, MODEL THEORY, STRESS(PSYCHOLOGY), PREDICTIONS, COMMUNITIES, RECOVERY, EMERGENCIES
Identifiers: (U) SBE(SOCIAL BEHAVIORAL AND ECONOMIC), BEHAVIORAL MODELS, SOCIAL SCIENCE MODELS, EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
Abstract: (U) The knowledge and tools of the social, behavioral and economic (SBE) sciences are immediately applicable to the construction of strategies that can enhance the Nation's capacity to predict, prevent, prepare for and recover from a terrorist attack. Our capacity to predict future terrorist attacks depends in part on our ability to identify and understand those factors that underlie the formation and maintenance of both domestic and international terrorist groups. Prediction capabilities are enhanced if we understand that terrorist networks and strategies are shaped by the behaviors of both the terrorists and their targeted adversaries, which differ across time, place, and access to resources. Our ability to prevent a domestic terrorist attack will depend, in part, on detecting who threatens us. Behavioral methodology in conjunction with sensor and surveillance technology is being used to anticipate and detect threats during the earliest pre-incident phases. The social and behavioral sciences are helping our law enforcement and intelligence agencies adapt to new roles and responsibilities, and advising policy-makers to ensure that we protect individuals and communities that are vulnerable to isolation and stigmatization. The social, behavioral and economic sciences are integral to the development of optimal short-term and long-term strategies to prepare for a terrorist attack. SBE models of threat, risk and vulnerability assessments are advising the creation and evaluation of effective response plans. SBE models of risk perception and communication are being used to appropriately modify emergency responder and public behaviors under conditions of attack, threat and uncertainty. Our capacity to recover from a terrorist attack is enhanced by taking advantage of SBE models of terrorist attacks and other large-scale disasters that incorporate measures of community strengths and weaknesses.
ADA457302
A Framework for Integrating Cultural Factors in Military Modeling and Simulation
Personal Author(s): Ntuen, Celestine A
Report Date: Jan 2006
Media Count: 56 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, *COGNITION, *CULTURE, ALGORITHMS, SIMULATION, METHODOLOGY, MILITARY PERSONNEL, INTEGRATION, PATTERNS, GENETICS, BATTLES, OFFICER PERSONNEL, PHYSICAL FITNESS, MILITARY TRAINING, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, EFFICIENCY, MODELS, DATA MANAGEMENT, WARFARE, IRAQ, MILITARY STRATEGY
Identifiers: (U) PE62202F
Abstract: (U) Effective and efficient culture cognition in the Future Force depends heavily upon orchestrating the cultural factors and patterns of battle information into effective cultural cognition models so that the appropriate context information is brought together at the appropriate time relative to the appropriate operational issues. At the heart of this problem lies the current inability of a commander (or his designated chief of staff, operations officer, information management officer, etc.) to know in real-time (1) what cultural factors will influence the outcome of a given mission and how these factors will influence this outcome (e.g., Iraq war) and (2) which of the cultural factors (e.g., political structural, religious, socio-economic, etc.) can be used by decision makers to control rhythms of war in their favor. Obviously, there is a need to address two challenges: (1) an understanding of how socio-cultural factors are likely to influence given military strategies and (2) an understanding of how to incorporate these factors into modeling and simulation techniques in order to optimize military personnel training. This paper presents an anecdotal literature review of cultural models and a framework for incorporating cultural issues in military simulations. A proof-of-concept simulation of culture affinity is simulated with genetic algorithm using a homebred fitness function.
ADA447930
Inferring Trust Relationships in Web-Based Social Networks
Personal Author(s): Golbeck, Jennifer, Hendler, James
Report Date: Jan 2006
Media Count: 42 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *NETWORKS, *EXPERT SYSTEMS, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *INTERNET, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, ALGORITHMS, PROBABILITY, ELECTRONIC MAIL, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, RATINGS, MAN COMPUTER INTERFACE, NODES, ACCURACY, SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
Identifiers: (U) *SOCIAL NETWORKS, *TRUST RELATIONSHIPS, TRUST NETWORKS, SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS, SOCIAL TRUST, MOVIE RECOMMENDATIONS, TRUSTMAIL, ROUNDING ALGORITHM, NONROUNDING ALGORITHM, COLLABORATIVE FILTERING, TRUST VALUES, SEMANTIC WEB, TRUST RATINGS, FOAF(FRIEND OF A FRIEND), MESSAGE SCORING SYSTEMS
Abstract: (U) The growth of web-based social networking and the properties of those networks have created great potential for producing intelligent software that integrates a user's social network and preferences. This research focuses on the concept of trust in social networks. The goal of the work is to use explicit trust ratings that describe direct connections between people in social networks and compose this information to infer the trust that may exist between two people who are not directly connected. The paper presents two variations on an algorithm to make this calculation in networks in which users rate one another on a binary scale (trusted or not trusted). The authors begin by presenting a definition of trust and illustrating how it fits in with making trust ratings in web-based social networks. For both algorithms, the objective is to infer trust values that are accurate to the person for whom they are calculated. They introduce each algorithm in detail, followed by a theoretical analysis that shows why highly accurate results can be expected. This is reinforced through simulation that demonstrates the correctness in simulated networks. Finally, they demonstrate the potential of using inferred trust values to create trust-aware applications through a prototype of TrustMail, an e-mail client that uses trust ratings as a mechanism to filter e-mail.
ADA444531
A Multi-National Simulation Framework for Maritime Missile Defense
Personal Author(s): Reading, Richard, Sawyer, Ronald, Wind, Jan
Report Date: Jan 2006
Media Count: 9 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, *SHIP DEFENSE SYSTEMS, *INTERNATIONAL, NETHERLANDS, COOPERATION, INTEROPERABILITY, GERMANY, NAVAL OPERATIONS
Identifiers: (U) MTMD(MARITIME THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE), MSWG(MODELLING AND SIMULATION WORKING GROUP), SBA(SIMULATION BASED ACQUISITION)
Abstract: (U) The Maritime Theater Missile Defense (MTMD) Forum is an eight-nation informal body formed in 1999 to create international cooperation in the area of Maritime Theater Missile Defense. Although initially set up for maritime ballistic missile defense, the Forum has evolved to consider cooperation in other mission areas, such as land attack and ship self defense. The Forum has established focused working groups to address specific technical areas (e.g., radars, BMC4I) to identify common needs, harmonize future operational requirements and nurture possible collaborative development programs. The Modelling and Simulation Working Group (MSWG) was established in 2001 when the Forum realized that modelling and simulation (M&S) would play an important role in developing, testing and evaluating the projected systems that enable sea based missile defense. The mission of the MSWG is to establish a multinational developed-and-managed M&S framework for Maritime Missile Defense and related mission areas. The purpose of the common M&S framework is to enable development and assessment of MTMD concepts, algorithms, and concepts-of-operations, by providing a providing a setting for national M&S capabilities to be exercised in an international context. The framework will allow nations to analyze performance and interoperability within a coalition capability, and experiment with coalition tactics and doctrine to achieve MTMD objectives. It will support analysis from weapon system to battle force level, permitting nations to identify & analyze capability gaps and relate them to specific systems performance. The MSWG is developing the M&S framework incrementally, following a roadmap that includes collaborative efforts with other MTMD Forum working groups. The primary mechanism for implementing development is a set of international Project Arrangements (PA). Currently, the MSWG is embarking on the implementation of its first PA, among The Netherlands, Germany, and the U.S.
ADA449625
Group and Topic Discovery from Relations and Their Attributes
Personal Author(s): Wang, Xuerui, Mohanty, Natasha, McCallum, Andrew
Report Date: Jan 2006
Media Count: 9 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *INTERACTIONS, *CLUSTERING, *BEHAVIOR, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *COHESION, *WORDS(LANGUAGE), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, TEXT PROCESSING, SENATE, POLITICAL PARTIES, UNITED NATIONS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, PATTERNS, NETWORKS, ORGANIZATIONS, DETECTION
Identifiers: (U) SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, *GROUP MEMBERSHIPS, *GROUP TOPIC MODEL, ENTITY RELATIONSHIPS, TEXTUAL ATTRIBUTES, GROUP DETECTION, LATENT GROUPS, VOTING DATA, VOTING PATTERNS, STOCHASTIC BLOCKSTRUCTURES MODEL, SYMMETRIC RELATIONS, UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY, DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS, RESOLUTIONS
Abstract: (U) The authors present a probabilistic generative model of entity relationships and their attributes that simultaneously discovers groups among the entities and topics among the corresponding textual attributes. Block-models of relationship data have been studied in social network analysis for some time. Here, the authors simultaneously cluster in several modalities at once, incorporating the attributes (here, words) associated with certain relationships. Significantly, joint inference allows the discovery of topics to be guided by the emerging groups, and vice-versa. They present experimental results on two large data sets: 16 years of bills put before the U.S. Senate, including their corresponding text and voting records, and 13 years of similar data from the United Nations. The authors show that in comparison with traditional, separate, latent-variable models for words, or Block-structures for votes, the Group-Topic model's joint inference discovers more cohesive groups and improved topics.
ADA443075
The Performance of Edge Organizations in a Collaborative Task
Personal Author(s): Chang, Kok M
Report Date: Dec 2005
Media Count: 99 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *INTELLIGENCE, *ORGANIZATIONS, *DATA ACQUISITION, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), GROUP DYNAMICS, ADAPTATION, ORGANIZATIONAL REALIGNMENT, MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS, HIERARCHIES, BEHAVIOR, THREATS, INTEROPERABILITY, EFFICIENCY, THESES, ASYMMETRY
Identifiers: (U) *EDGE ORGANIZATIONS, AGILITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, INTELLIGENT AGENTS, *ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE, *HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATIONS, COLLABORATION, AGENT-BASED SIMULATIONS, ASYMMETRIC THREATS, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, MULTI-AGENT MODELS
Abstract: (U) The rapidly changing and asymmetric threat environment that the United States is facing today has called into question the effectiveness of the traditional approach of hierarchical command and control (C2) structures. Edge organizations have been proposed as a more suitable alternative in the current information age. Besides task-related factors, the characteristics and behavior of the people in an edge organization play an important role in determining the organization's performance. In this thesis, the author investigates how the various characteristics of agents influence the efficiency of an edge organization in an intelligence-gathering task using an agent-based simulation model developed in Java. The author also looks at the attributes of an agent that performs well in an organization, and whether a reward system that encourages individual success in an edge organization is detrimental to the organization's performance. Comparisons between edge organizations with similar mean group attributes but different variability in agent characteristics, and between an edge organization and a hierarchical organization, also are performed.
ADA440344
Sensitivity to Noise Variance in a Social Network Dynamics Model
Personal Author(s): Banks, H T, Karr, A F, Nguyen, H K, Samuels, J R , Jr
Report Date: 14 Nov 2005
Media Count: 16 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, ALGORITHMS, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), EDGES, SOCIOMETRICS, AUTOMATA, RUNGE KUTTA METHOD, GEOMETRY, STATISTICAL INFERENCE, OBSERVATION, NODES, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
Identifiers: (U) *SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, VISUALIZATION, SOCIABILITY QUOTIENT, OUTLOOK ON LIFE, AGENT CONNECTIVITY, AGENT-BASED SIMULATION, SODE (STOCHASTIC ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS)
Abstract: (U) The dynamics of social networks are modeled with a system of continuous Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations (SODE). With the proper amount of noise input, the SODE model captures dynamic features that are lacking in the corresponding deterministic ODE model. Therefore, sensitivity to noise levels is investigated by considering four different regimes: essentially deterministic, noise-enriched, noise-enlarged, and noise-dominated. Each regime is defined based on the behavior of solutions of the SODE, and the geometry of the regimes is categorized with stochastic simulations. This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA444469
Human Performance Modeling Presentation/Brief
Personal Author(s): Young, Michael J
Report Date: Nov 2005
Media Count: 38 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MODELS, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), SCENARIOS, INTEROPERABILITY, PERSONALITY, NONLETHAL WEAPONS, CULTURE, BEHAVIOR, SIMULATION, TEST BEDS
Identifiers: (U) CROWD MODELING, BRIEFING CHARTS, RULES OF ENGAGEMENT MODELS, PE63231F, WUAFRL49230400
Abstract: (U) Briefing charts and notes for presentation on Human Performance Modeling. Topics include: crowd modeling; rules of engagement simulation; non-lethal weapons modeling; cultural modeling testbed; recently transition projects.
ADA439455
Third Generation Gangs Revisited: The Iraq Insurgency
Personal Author(s): Haussler, Nicholas I
Report Date: Sep 2005
Media Count: 127 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *IRAQ, *NETWORKS, *THEORY, *COUNTERINSURGENCY, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, *MOTIVATION, *INSURGENCY, STABILITY, POLICIES, COMPETITION, LESSONS LEARNED, SECURITY, COLD WAR, URBAN WARFARE, POLITICAL PARTIES, CASE STUDIES, INTERACTIONS, MOBILIZATION, STRATEGY, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), ISLAM, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN)
Identifiers: (U) *GANG THEORY, GANG MODELS, STREET GANGS, THIRD GENERATION GANG MODEL, INSURGENCY THEORY, RADICAL ISLAM, INTRA-INSURGENCY RELATIONS, POLITICS, POST COLD WAR ERA, ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS, BA'ATH PARTY, SUNNIS, NONSTATE ACTORS, NETWAR, COIN(CHARACTERISTICS OF INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY), CIVILIAN MILITARY RELATIONS
Abstract: (U) The insurgency in Iraq has continued despite the determination of U.S. and Iraqi forces. U.S. counter-insurgent strategy has operated from the premise that the main thrust behind anti-U.S. activities is a combination of Sunnis desiring a return to their former privileged position and tribal collective actors with long-standing grievances fueled by radical Islam. Yet an analysis incorporating insights from gang theory illuminates the diverse, practical, and local motivations of those involved in insurgent networks. Gang theory is uniquely suited to illuminate the street-level dynamics that drive insurgent violence. Through this, a more precise picture of the relevant networks and their operative motivations can be drawn, allowing finer tuned policies targeted to the differentiated factors behind non-state violence. The author first considers the origins of and interactions between the armed groups operating in Iraq for discernable trends in development, paying particular attention to factors consistent with gang models. He then alters the gang model for the context of Iraq, and presents an integrated model that articulates the likely effects of state-insurgent interaction on stability and security there. The author concludes with recommendations demonstrating the model's relevance for strategic use in other regions. This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA456087
A Formal Characterization of Cellular Networks
Personal Author(s): Frantz, Terrill L, Carley, Kathleen M
Report Date: Sep 2005
Media Count: 15 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *NETWORKS, *CELLS, *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, *NETWORK TOPOLOGY, *COVERT OPERATIONS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, ALGORITHMS, VIRTUAL REALITY, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, TERRORISM, NODES, GRAPHS, ORGANIZATIONS, NEURAL NETS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
Identifiers: (U) *CELLULAR NETWORKS, *DEFINITIONS, SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, CELL-CORE SUBGROUPS, K-CELL SUBGRAPHS, COVERT NETWORKS, KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS, CELL-PERIPHERY SUBGROUPS, NETWORK GENERATION, VIRTUAL EXPERIMENTS, TERMINOLOGY, MULTI-AGENT SIMULATION PROGRAMS
Abstract: (U) The authors present precise and explicit definitions and descriptions of pertinent terms and constructs related to a specific type of network topology -- the cellular network. First, they clarify the construct of a cell and establish the concept of a cell-core and cell-periphery. Next, they present details of the broader, cellular network. Then they introduce the notion of a k-cell subgraph construct. Throughout the report, the authors introduce several supplementary terms related to these concepts. The terminology and formalization they present can be effectively utilized when conversing about real-world social networks, but may be essential as guidelines when constructing cellular social-networks for virtual experiments. Increasingly, the network form referred to as "cellular" is appearing in empirical social network studies and is being applied in virtual experiments of social networks. The presence of a cellular network is particularly prominent in research pertaining to covert and terrorist organizations, although the form can be found in other less saturnine groups. While the structure of a cellular network is often rather intuitive, to avoid confusion, researchers, analysts, and, especially, experimenters have a need for formal definitions and a precise description of the topology. In this paper, the authors provide a formalism of cellular networks that is primarily intended for use in generating networks in virtual experiments. They also have introduced terminology that is pertinent to communicating about cellular networks. The terminology includes cell subgroup, cell-core subgroup, cell-periphery subgroup, and cellular network. Finally, they introduce the k-cell subgraph, which provides for high-level examination of a complex cellular network.
ADA437692
Optimal Training Systems STTR
Personal Author(s): Best, Brad, Lovett, Marsha
Report Date: 15 Aug 2005
Media Count: 68 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MODELS, *TRAINING, *PERFORMANCE (HUMAN), *FEEDBACK, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, SIMULATION, INTERACTIONS, LEARNING, INTERFACES, METHODOLOGY, OPTIMIZATION, DECISION MAKING, VALIDATION
Identifiers: (U) *STE (SIMULATED TASK ENVIRONMENT), STTR(SMALL BUSINESS TECHNOLGY TRANSFER) STTR REPORTS, STTR PHASE 1, NMD(NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE)
Abstract: (U) Successful training in complex environments is normally accomplished through the interaction of a trainee and a skilled expert, but experts are an expensive commodity. Using an optimal model of task performance subject to human constraints may be a more efficient way to develop models of skilled human performance for use in training, especially since optimal models are simpler to validate, test, and debug than corresponding expert models. In addition, constrained optimal models can be constructed in domains where no experts are available or even exist. Using a simulated task environment (STE) permits the necessary close model-trainee interaction by enabling the construction of optimal performance models that perform the same task as the trainee using the same interface while closely observing and guiding trainee performance. We have developed a methodology for using a normatively correct task model as the core engine of an automated tutor for a national missile defense (NMD) task STE. This methodology has allowed us to explore: the relative impact of expert versus optimal feedback, the locus of learning within the NMD task, the differential impact of providing feedback on strategy selection, and methodologies for constructing tutors directly from expert performance data.
ADA437462
Cultural Influences on Virtual Reality Environment Response Behavior
Personal Author(s): Wiederhold, Mark
Report Date: Aug 2005
Media Count: 42 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY PERSONNEL, *COGNITION, *LAW ENFORCEMENT, *CULTURAL RESOURCES, *VIRTUAL REALITY, *ROLES(BEHAVIOR), *DIGITAL SIMULATION, SCENARIOS, CONTROL, RESPONSE, ASIA, DECEPTION, AIRPORTS, MAN COMPUTER INTERFACE, NATIONAL SECURITY, GLOBAL, REPRINTS
Abstract: (U) Asians and Middle Easterners participated in a virtual and real world environment to provide a unique perspective into deception and deception detection. Subjects physiology was measured as they navigated an airport scenario were one group engaged in deceptive behavior, while the control group did not. Law enforcement and military personnel participated as the security agents who attempted to identify the deceptive subjects through verbal questioning. The results provide a new insight into cultural influences on deception.
ADA450210
Harnessing the Interagency for Complex Operations
Personal Author(s): Arnas, Neyla, Barr, Charles, Oakley, Robert B
Report Date: Aug 2005
Media Count: 30 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *STABILIZATION, *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, *COOPERATION, *RECLAMATION, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, WARFARE, STRATEGY, MODELS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FOREIGN AID, COLLABORATIVE TECHNIQUES, MILITARY COMMANDERS, MILITARY TACTICS, CIVILIAN PERSONNEL, JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, LEADERSHIP, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Identifiers: (U) *STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION, *INTERAGENCY COOPERATION, COMBATANT COMMAND-LEVEL OPERATIONAL COOPERATION, FIELD-LEVEL TACTICAL COOPERATION, WASHINGTON-LEVEL STRATEGIC COOPERATION, RECONSTRUCTION, CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS, JIACG(JOINT INTERAGENCY COORDINATION GROUP), COCOMS(COMBATANT COMMANDERS), CIVILIAN AGENCIES
Abstract: (U) This paper attempts to catalogue and describe the known models for interagency cooperation for stabilization and reconstruction (S&R) operations. The models in existence and under discussion can be grouped in terms of their focus on different aspects of the interagency process, as well as on different aspects of S&R. We recognize that S&R operations take place in an international arena, hence have limited the focus of this paper on models that address how the United States Government (USG) should achieve unity of effort. Defining an efficient, commonly understood model to guide USG actions is a necessary first step to coordinating S&R operations with other international, national, and non-governmental actors. This paper does not explore the various modes of providing humanitarian assistance, although those activities are almost always important elements of any operation preceding and accompanying military actions, as was seen in Afghanistan and in South Asia with tsunami relief. The United States has been involved in S&R operations for the past 15 years with mixed success because of the ad hoc nature of pulling together interagency resources. Examples of U.S. S&R efforts include operations in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. A number of ideas have emerged to make the process more systematic. This paper describes those ideas for interagency cooperation, grouping them into three categories: Washington-level strategic cooperation; combatant command-level operational cooperation; and field-level tactical cooperation. Some models address more than one category. Each section considers recent examples of interagency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan using existing models as well as the use of a Joint Interagency Coordination Group (JIACG) by various Combatant Commanders (COCOMs) before proceeding with a description of proposed new models for cooperation.
ADA466572
Modelling Operational Command Structures Using ORGAHEAD
Personal Author(s): Yates, Alex, Cook, Ashley, Sproles, Noel
Report Date: Jul 2005
Media Count: 66 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *ORGANIZATIONS, *SOFTWARE TOOLS, *DECISION MAKING, MODELS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), AUSTRALIA, ORGANIZATION THEORY
Identifiers: (U) FOREIGN REPORTS, *ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, MODELLING, ORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS, *COMMAND STRUCTURES, ADF(AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCES)
Abstract: (U) Computational modelling has been used successfully to explore the influence of organisation structure on organisation performance. Results from these explorations have helped to develop organisation science theories. This report describes the method and results of a series of experiments that were conducted to assess the suitability of ORGAHEAD, a computational modelling tool, in analysing operational command structures.
ADA448063
Measuring the "Will to Fight" in Simulation
Personal Author(s): Bross, Paul J
Report Date: 23 Jun 2005
Media Count: 31 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *BEHAVIOR, INTERACTIONS, MORALE, COHESION
Identifiers: (U) BRIEFING CHARTS, JWARS(JOINT WARFARE SYSTEM), SEAS(SYNTHETIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION), SOFT FACTORS
Abstract: (U) Presentation on measuring the "will to fight" in simulation; a limited excursion into JWARS "soft factors" with an emphasis on morale and cohesion.
ADA464187
A Computational Framework for Experimentation with Edge Organizations
Personal Author(s): Ramsey, Marc S, Levitt, Raymond E
Report Date: Jun 2005
Media Count: 28 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SIMULATION, *COMPUTATIONS, *KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS, *DECISION MAKING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MODELS, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, VIRTUAL REALITY, INFORMATION PROCESSING, BEHAVIOR, ALLOCATIONS, PLATFORMS, DYNAMICS, IMPACT, ORGANIZATIONS, OPTIMIZATION
Identifiers: (U) INCLUDES BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) Edge organizations emphasize moving knowledge and decision-making power to individuals and teams who directly interface with the environment. Traditional project modeling tools cannot adequately represent the critical impact of information and knowledge flows, nor the importance of developing trust between workers in Edge organizations. The Virtual Design Team (VDT) computational modeling platform evolved from ongoing research at Stanford University starting in the late 1980s. VDT has been used successfully to model activities, communications, and exception handling within traditional project organizations performing relatively routine, albeit highly concurrent, tasks. This paper discusses POWER, a new computational modeling platform based on the same information processing view of organizations as VDT. POW-ER is an extensible organization simulation platform, within which we have prototyped direct support for modeling several critical dynamic behaviors of workers in modern knowledge-based organizations: knowledge flows, trust effects, and cultural/ institutional differences between team members from different backgrounds. POW-ER can also support demand-driven, dynamic allocation of resources to tasks as needed, to model work processes that cannot be represented by predefined tasks. Using POW-ER, researchers can now conduct emulation experiments on Edge organizations to validate and calibrate the computational model, ultimately aiding in the systematic design and optimization of these organizational forms.
ADA463858
NetSTAR: Methodology to Identify Enemy Network Structure, Tasks, Activities, and Roles
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Georgiy, Chopra, Kari, Pattipati, Krishna
Report Date: Jun 2005
Media Count: 45 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SCENARIOS, *METHODOLOGY, *MODELS, *ENEMY, *IDENTIFICATION, *ORGANIZATIONS, *ELECTRONIC COUNTERMEASURES, *MARKOV PROCESSES, COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS, THREATS, DECISION MAKING, SYMPOSIA, COMPUTATIONS
Identifiers: (U) *POMDP(PARTIALLY OBSERVABLE MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES) MODELING, COMPONENT REPORTS
Abstract: (U) To counteract the enemy organization, knowledge of the principles under which this organization operates is required. This knowledge provides the ability to detect and predict the activities of the enemy and to select the appropriate counter-actions. Certain counter-actions require additional knowledge about enemy organization and processes ranging from the specifics of organizational command, control, communication and information distribution (C3I) structures to the responsibility delegation and goals at the most important enemy nodes. Our paper proposes to solve the problem of identifying the enemy organization and activities via the NetSTAR system employing a hybrid multi-phase model-based structure and process identification approach. The basis for NetSTAR is an innovative methodology that integrates a social network model of coordination, a meta-task model of enemy goals, and a Hidden-Markov Model (HMM) of enemy activities to detect subgroups engaged in coordinated activities. This model enables the computation of the likelihood of the hypothesized organizational structure and processes given the observed behavior, and allows designing effective dynamic counter-action strategies via Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) modeling.
ADA435682
The Use of System Dynamics Analysis and Modeling Techniques to Explore Policy Levers in the Fight Against Middle Eastern Terrorist Groups
Personal Author(s): Alcantara Gil, Benigno R, Matsuura, Masahiro, Monzon, Carlos M, Samothrakis, Ioannis
Report Date: Jun 2005
Media Count: 97 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *POLICIES, *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, *HUMAN RESOURCES, *MIDDLE EAST, *THREAT EVALUATION, *SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), ORGANIZATIONS, RECRUITING, RESPONSE, ALLOCATIONS, CASUALTIES, LETHALITY, PRODUCTIVITY, BEHAVIOR, MOTIVATION, COUNTERTERRORISM, TERRORISM
Identifiers: (U) *SYSTEM DYNAMICS, IDEOLOGY, RESOURCE REDUCTION, TERRORISM DYNAMICS, DYNAMIC MODELING, DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, TERRORIST CHARACTERISTICS, STELLA COMPUTER PROGRAM, DTT(DYNAMIC TERRORIST THREAT), HISTORICAL PATTERNS, CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS, TERRORIST CAPABILITIES, MILITARY INVESTMENTS, NUMBER OF ATTACKS, PERSONS KILLED PER MONTH
Abstract: (U) The objective of this project is to use analysis and modeling techniques from Systems Dynamics to capture the causal relationships of Middle Eastern groups' terrorist activities against the United States based on their ideological drivers, as well as the effect of U.S. policies that create dynamics and affect performance and outcomes. The main focus of the analysis is the terrorist groups' human resources. The hypothesis is that Middle Eastern terrorism against the United States is affected by the U.S. level of military presence and/or investment in the Middle Eastern nations. A considerable and lasting reduction in fatalities originated by Middle Eastern groups' terrorist attacks against the United States can be achieved through a policy that reduces both the human resources available to terrorist groups and their attack capability (level of sophistication). The study covers the implications of this resource reduction policy, which may include incremental military investment, defection motivators, anti-terrorism, and the use of counterterrorism operations. These operations will reduce the sophistication as well as the recruitment rate to levels where the functionality of terrorist cells will be impaired, and thus unable to carry out high lethality attacks. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA463611
Supporting Organizational Change in Command and Control: Approaches and Metrics
Personal Author(s): Weil, Shawn A, Levchuk, Georgiy, Downes-Martin, Stephen, Diedrich, Frederick J, Entin, Elliot E, See, Katrina E, Serfaty, Daniel
Report Date: Jun 2005
Media Count: 52 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, *ADAPTATION, SYMPOSIA, DECISION MAKING, MODELS, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, MISSIONS, NETWORKS, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, TEAMS(PERSONNEL)
Identifiers: (U) COMPONENT REPORTS, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, FACILITATORS
Abstract: (U) Network-centered Command and Control (C2) has great potential to increase military effectiveness, in some measure due to enhanced information sharing and dissemination techniques. However, for these technologies to be maximally effective, C2 organizations need to have the flexibility to tailor their organizational structures in response to changing mission In the experiment reported here, a model-based approach to supporting organizational adaptation was assessed. The purpose of this experiment was to explore ways in which obstacles to adaptation could be overcome. Teams of Naval Officers participated in three simulations of a joint forces mission on the Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD) simulator (Serfaty & Kleinman, 1985; Kleinman & Serfaty, 1989). The match between organizational structure and mission task requirements was manipulated within-participants, resulting in differences in coordination requirements. Between the second and third simulated missions, participant teams were given the opportunity to select an organizational structure from a list of model-based, predefined organizational designs, to better accommodate the changing mission requirements. To support organizational change, model-based prospective information was provided to the teams. This support led to the adoption of better matched congruent organizations in each of the participant teams. Several measurement techniques were designed to evaluate both the degree of adaptation and its effect on mission performance.
ADA436425
Team Communication and Performance during Sustained Working Conditions
Personal Author(s): Harville, Donald L, Lopez, Nadia, Elliott, Linda R, Barnes, Christopher
Report Date: May 2005
Media Count: 29 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS, *DECISION MAKING, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *COOPERATION, *FATIGUE(PHYSIOLOGY), *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), MEASUREMENT, AIR FORCE PERSONNEL, COMBAT SIMULATION, BATTLE MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION PROCESSING, SLEEP DEPRIVATION, PROBLEM SOLVING, REACTION TIME, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, COMPUTER COMMUNICATIONS
Identifiers: (U) *TEAM COMMUNICATIONS, *SUSTAINED OPERATIONS, TEAM PERFORMANCE, COORDINATION, SLEEP LOSS, ENCOURAGEMENT, RESPONSE TIME, AEDGE(AGENT ENABLED DECISION GROUP ENVIRONMENT), PE62202F, WUAFRL7757P904
Abstract: (U) The effects of prolonged working conditions on individual performance are well documented. In addition, military field studies, sports team studies, and field expeditions have been conducted in a sustained context. However, there have been few controlled, experimental studies on the effects of fatigue on complex decision making or team performance. The authors initiated a program of research to systematically investigate the effects of fatigue on measurable aspects of team communication, coordination, decision making, problem-solving, and performance. The results showed that as fatigue increased, the teams' performance decreased on both major outcomes measured, and 10 of the 12 types of verbal communication differed in the predicted direction.
ADA434652
Special Forces Interpersonal Performance Assessment System
Personal Author(s): Carpenter, Tara D, Wisecarver, Michelle M, Deagle, Edwin A , III, Mendini, Kip G
Report Date: Apr 2005
Media Count: 81 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *SPECIAL FORCES, *PERFORMANCE APPRAISALS, SKILLS, CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), ARMY TRAINING, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR
Identifiers: (U) SBIR(SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH), SBIR REPORTS, SBIR PHASE 1, PE65502A
Abstract: (U) The role of the U.S. Army in the Global War on Terror includes not just war activities but peacekeeping and nation building as well. Soldiers confront complex cultural and political situations that are delicate and unstable. Success in these missions often requires interpersonal skills, enabling soldiers to accurately perceive multiple perspectives and interact successfully within other cultures. Despite the fact that these skill areas are of great importance, few resources exist to provide Soldiers with information regarding their strengths and weaknesses in these areas, or to provide developmental training activities that could improve these skills. This report describes the development of a model that can serve as a foundation to develop these skills. An evaluation of the model and the application of the model to develop a training program are discussed.
ADA437898
Military Command Team Effectiveness: Model and Instrument for Assessment and Improvement (L'efficacite des Equipes de Commandement Militaires: un Modele et un Instrument Pour L'evaluation et L'amelioration)
Personal Author(s): Essens, Peter; Vogelaar, Ad; Mylle, Jacques; Blendell, Carol, Paris; Carol, Halpin, Stanley; Baranski, Joe
Report Date: Apr 2005
Media Count: 146 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, *MILITARY COMMANDERS, DECISION MAKING, MODELS, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, QUESTIONNAIRES, COOPERATION, SCORING, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), MISSION PROFILES
Identifiers: (U) NATO FURNISHED, FOREIGN REPORTS, AD HOC TEAMS, CTEF(COMMAND TEAM EFFECTIVENESS), MISSION EFFECTIVENESS, COMMAND LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, TEAMWORK
Abstract: (U) The increasing use of ad-hoc multi-national joint military units in a diversity of operations has made effective teamwork a critical mission success factor. The objective of our study is to support commanders in guiding and controlling the team towards effective performance. We developed a model and an instrument of critical factors of command team effectiveness - the CTEF model and instrument. The instrument is a questionnaire comprising items with detailed model element descriptions, which the commander and/or team members can score on a negative-positive scale. The CTEF model and instrument provide NATO with a common reference to effectiveness and teamwork for use in missions and in training. In a follow-up study we will apply and validate model and instrument in national and international military exercises using a web-based version of instrument. This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche. NATO.
ADA435252
Efficient Generation of Social Network Data from Computer-Mediated Communication Logs
Personal Author(s): Yee, Jason W
Report Date: 11 Mar 2005
Media Count: 84 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, *DATA PROCESSING SECURITY, *THREATS, *SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, *NETWORK ANALYSIS(MANAGEMENT), *COMPUTER NETWORKS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, AUTOMATION, SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, INTERACTIONS, THESES, MAPPING, COUNTERTERRORISM, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT, RISK ANALYSIS, CYBERTERRORISM
Identifiers: (U) *SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, *INSIDER THREATS, DATA MINING, SMTP(SIMPLE MAIL TRANSFER PROTOCOL), SMTP LOGS, PROXY LISTS, ELECTRONIC MAIL ANALYSIS, E MAIL ANALYSIS, MIDDLEWARE, COMMUNICATION LOGS
Abstract: (U) The insider threat poses a significant risk to any network or information system. A general definition of the insider threat is an authorized user performing unauthorized actions, a broad definition with no specifications on severity or action. While limited research has been able to classify and detect insider threats, it is generally understood that insider attacks are planned, and that there is a time period in which the organization's leadership can intervene and prevent the attack. Previous studies have shown that the person's behavior will generally change, and it is possible that social network analysis could be used to observe those changes. Unfortunately, generation of social network data can be a time consuming and manually intensive process. This research discusses the automatic generation of such data from computer-mediated communication records. Using the tools developed in this research, raw social network data can be gathered from communication logs quickly and cheaply. Ideas on further analysis of this data for insider threat mitigation are then presented.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited., Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA445889
Personality-Enabled Architecture for Cognition (PAC): Architecture and Initial Implementation
Personal Author(s): Zachary, Wayne; Le Mentec, Jean-Christophe; Lordanov, Vassil; Rosoff, Andrew; Stokes, James; Ellbert, James; Miller, Lynn; Read, Stephen
Report Date: Mar 2005
Media Count: 95 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, MILITARY OPERATIONS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), COGNITION, COMPUTER ARCHITECTURE, JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, BEHAVIOR, PERSONALITY, CULTURE, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY
Identifiers: (U) STINFO(SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION), HBR(HUMAN BEHAVIORAL REPRESENTATION), PAC(PERSONALITY-ENABLED ARCHITECTURE FOR COGNITION), PE63231F
Abstract: (U) This research is a collaboration between CHI Systems and the University of Southern California, to develop a new technical capability to create human behavioral representations (HBRs) with pre-defined and specific personality traits and cultural characteristics. This capability meets a current and growing need for human models that exhibit personality and cultural variability. The need arises from multiple sources, but primarily from the increased frequency and complexity of military operations involving coalition forces with great cultural and personality diversity, and the growing trend toward asymmetrical conflicts involving adversaries with poorly understood cultural values, characteristics, and behavior patterns. The research integrates theory and empirical data from personality psychology, social psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience to create a new software environment called the Personality-enabled Architecture for Cognition (PAC). Unlike existing cognitive architectures that attempt to build affective and personality factors as customizations to an underlying formally rational symbolic architecture, PAC uses dimensions of personality, emotion, and culture as foundations for the cognitive process. This report covers the first year of effort in the program, which focused on developing the initial PAC architecture and software implementation.
ADA464562
Operational Net Assessment: A Framework for Social Network Analysis and Requirements for Critical Debate
Personal Author(s): Hannan, Michael J
Report Date: 14 Feb 2005
Media Count: 28 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *INTELLIGENCE, *NETWORKS, *LIMITATIONS, *ENEMY, *BEHAVIOR, *DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, QUALITY ASSURANCE, LINKAGES, COLLABORATIVE TECHNIQUES, INFORMATION WARFARE, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, CULTURE, BIAS, QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS, TERRORISTS, EXPERT SYSTEMS, NODES, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, UNCERTAINTY, QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Identifiers: (U) *SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, *ONA(OPERATIONAL NET ASSESSMENT), *INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS, SJFHQ(STANDING JOINT FORCE HEADQUARTERS), EBO(EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS), SOSA(SYSTEM-OF-SYSTEMS ANALYSIS), ENEMY VULNERABILITIES, SOCIAL BEHAVIOR, CULTURAL BEHAVIOR, INFORMATION OPERATIONS, FEDERAL AGENCIES, INTERAGENCY COORDINATION, NGO(NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS), BUTTERFIELD SCALE, TERRORIST NETWORKS, NETWORK MODELING
Abstract: (U) Operational Net Assessment (ONA) is critical to the new Standing Joint Force Headquarters (SJFHQ) concept. SJFHQs were designed by the U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) to provide Regional Combatant Commanders in-depth analysis for a specific adversary or situation within their area of responsibility. This paper does not seek to debunk the ONA process, nor antagonize the SJFHQ concept. The author desires to provide insight into perceived weaknesses in existing doctrine and promote issues for further discussion within the Joint Intelligence Community. The collaborative ONA process as designed by JFCOM is subjective. The lack of a formal vetting process to review information applied for analysis is dangerous. Current network modeling tools, the cornerstone of ONA's analytical construct, have limitations that must be recognized as tenuous assumptions. Product output must be sufficiently analyzed in concert with operational planners and scaled to mission requirements to support the Commander's Intent. The author has drawn from current literature on the ONA template and reviewed the construct to create a "truth in lending" approach. The goal is not simply to identify the present limitations of ONA, but provide recommendations and areas for improvement. For ONA to be relevant, its level of confidence must be clearly understood by the warfighter.
ADA440349
A Multi-Functional Software Environment for Modeling Complex Missions and Devising Adaptive Organizations
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Yuri N; Luo, Jie ; Levchuk, Georgiy M; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 27 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *OPTIMIZATION, *AUTOMATION, *MISSIONS, *SOFTWARE TOOLS, *ORGANIZATIONS, ALGORITHMS, WORKLOAD, HIERARCHIES, ADAPTATION, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, DECISION MAKING, DATA MANAGEMENT, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), SCHEDULING
Identifiers: (U) RESOURCE ALLOCATION, ADAPTIVE ORGANIZATIONS, *ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, MISSION SCHEDULING, MISSION OBJECTIVES, MISSION TASKS, MISSION MODELING
Abstract: (U) This paper presents a software environment that uses the authors' comprehensive modeling and design methodology for representing complex missions and synthesizing the concomitant adaptive organizational structures for different sets of design objectives. The tool box provides a step-by-step visualization of modeling a complex mission and building an "optimal" organization that achieves superior performance while satisfying organizational constraints. In addition, the software environment allows one to perform a comparative analysis of different organizations for various (user-defined) performance measures, and to quantify the robustness of a given organizational design. The methodology incorporates algorithms for optimizing resource allocation, mission scheduling, information management, balancing decision-making workload, and maximizing controllability of mission processing by the resulting organizational hierarchy. The software environment is illustrated via an example. The methodology and tools presented allow for automation of the modeling and design process. Herein, they constitute valuable instruments for scientific research in the area of organizational decision-making and human team behavior.
ADA440348
Networks of Decision-Making and Communicating Agents: A New Methodology for Design and Evaluation of Organizational Strategies and Heterarchical Structures
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Georgiy M; Yu, Feili; Levchuk, Yuri; Pattipati, Krishna R
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 25 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS, *NETWORKS, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *INFORMATION PROCESSING, *DECISION MAKING, TEST AND EVALUATION, MISSIONS, HIERARCHIES, DECOMPOSITION, HYBRID SYSTEMS, SENSITIVITY, OBSERVATION, ORGANIZATIONS, INFORMATION TRANSFER, INTERACTIONS, MONITORING
Identifiers: (U) *ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, *COMMAND PROCESSING, ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESSES, HETERARCHICAL STRUCTURES, DISTRIBUTED AUTHORITY, HYBRID ORGANIZATIONS, INFORMATION NETWORKS, COMMAND NETWORKS, MISSION MONITORING, INFORMATION FLOW, ORGANIZATIONAL AGENTS, AGENT NETWORKS, ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Abstract: (U) In this paper, the authors explore the decomposition of organizational processes and decision-making, the coexistence of an organization's command and communication networks, and their effects on team performance. They present a methodology to design mission-based strategies and novel heterarchical organizational structures based on exploring information/command transfer and processing in the organizations. This methodology allows the synthesis of alternative C3I organizational structures that outperform traditional hierarchies in environments with heavy information volume, scarce resources, and strict knowledge and communication constraints. This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA440392
Congruence of Human Organizations and Missions: Theory versus Data
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Georgiy M; Kleinman, David L; Ruan, Sui;
Pattipati, Krishna R
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 19 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *ORGANIZATIONS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *MATCHING, *MISSIONS, TEST AND EVALUATION, PREDICTIONS, BALANCE, TIMELINESS, ADAPTATION, GANTT CHARTS, WORKLOAD, ALLOCATIONS, GRAPHS, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), DECISION MAKING, SCENARIOS
Identifiers: (U) *ORGANIZATIONAL CONGRUENCE, *STRUCTURE-BASED CONGRUENCE, MISSION TASK GRAPHS, MISSION MODELING, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE, A2C2(ADAPTIVE ARCHITECTURES FOR COMMAND AND CONTROL), TASK PROCESSING
Abstract: (U) In this paper, the authors present a methodology for quantifying the degree of fit between a mission and an organization based on the closeness between the task structure (i.e., resource requirements and task interdependence) and the Decision Maker-asset (DM) allocation across the organization (i.e., amount and distribution of resource capabilities among DMs and organizational processes). This closeness is based on three main characteristics of organizational performance: workload balance, communication requirements, and DM-DM dependence. These characteristics are affected, in turn, by the interactions and interdependencies of the organizational processes and the demands of the mission scenario. Invariably, coordination is essential to achieve good performance because the information required for decision making is often distributed. However, excessive DM-DM communication and coordination are harmful to performance, since they increase the processing workload/overhead that delays task execution. Performance improvements can be obtained by changing the structure and processes of an organization to decrease the requisite coordination, while balancing the levels of workload across the organization and reducing inter-DM dependence.
This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA440393
Goal Management in Organizations: A Markov Decision Process (MDP) Approach
Personal Author(s): Meirina, Candra; Levchuk, Yuri N; Levchuk, Georgiy M; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 25 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *OPTIMIZATION, *DECISION MAKING, *HEURISTIC METHODS, *MILITARY PLANNING, *MARKOV PROCESSES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, ALGORITHMS, COOPERATION, MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, CONFLICT, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, UNCERTAINTY
Identifiers: (U) *GOAL MANAGEMENT, *MDP(MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES), TEAM MANAGEMENT, ACYCLIC GRAPHS, GRAPH SEARCH TECHNIQUES, HEF(HEURISTIC EVALUATION FUNCTIONS), GREEDY HEURISTICS, SEARCH ALGORITHMS
Abstract: (U) Goal management is the process of recognizing or inferring goals of individual team members; abandoning goals that are no longer relevant; identifying and resolving conflicts among goals; and prioritizing goals consistently for optimal team collaboration and effective operations. A Markov decision process (MDP) approach is employed to maximize the probability of achieving the primary goals (a subset of all goals). The authors seek to address the computational adequacy of an MDP as a planning model by introducing novel problem domain-specific heuristic evaluation functions (HEF) to aid the search process. They employ the optimal AO* search and two suboptimal greedy search algorithms to solve the MDP problem. A comparison of these algorithms to the dynamic programming algorithm shows that computational complexity can be reduced substantially. In addition, they recognize that embedded in the MDP solution there are a number of different action sequences by which a team's goals can be realized. That is, in achieving the aforementioned optimality criterion, they identify alternate sequences for accomplishing the primary goals.
This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA440389
A Library of Optimization Algorithms for Organizational Design
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Georgiy M; Levchuk, Yuri N; Luo, Jie; Tu, Fang; Pattipati, Krishna R
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 41 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ALGORITHMS, *OPTIMIZATION, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *ORGANIZATIONS, *MISSIONS, SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, DECISION MAKING, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), WORKLOAD, MATCHING, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, ADAPTATION, ALLOCATIONS, SYNTHESIS, LINEAR PROGRAMMING, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), EFFICIENCY, CLUSTERING, SCHEDULING
Identifiers:(U) *ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN, *MISSION MODELING, OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS, DYNAMIC LIST SCHEDULING METHOD
Abstract: (U) This paper presents a library of algorithms to solve a broad range of optimization problems arising in the normative design of organizations to execute a specific mission. The use of specific optimization algorithms for different phases of the design process leads to an efficient matching between the mission structure and that of an organization and its resources/constraints. This library of algorithms forms the core of the authors' design software environment for synthesizing organizations that are congruent with their missions. It allows an analyst to obtain an acceptable trade-off among multiple objectives and constraints, as well as between computational complexity and solution efficiency (i.e., desired degree of sub-optimality). This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA440207
Analytic Model Driven Organizational Design and Experimentation in Adaptive Command and Control
Personal Author(s): Levchuk, Yuri N; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 12 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, *MULTIMISSION, *BEHAVIOR, *ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, OPTIMIZATION, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING, ORGANIZATION THEORY, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, DECISION MAKING, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN)
Identifiers: (U) *ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR, *ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN, COMMAND AND CONTROL RESEARCH, TEAM BEHAVIOR, ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE, GRAPH FORMALISM, TASK PROCESSING, RESOURCE ALLOCATION
Abstract: (U) The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for the design of experiments to examine the organizational behavior of command and control teams operating in a complex mission environment. This methodology can be used to design an executable model for human-in-the-loop, model-based experiments that provide the necessary empirical components for current and future research in adaptive C2 architectures. The authors discuss a joint model of a mission and an organization to specify the structure of the mission, organizational constraints and processes, and the requirements for an organizational design. Their methodology illustrates the underlying principles that guide the design of organizations. The paper provides an analytical starting point for model-based experimental research on adaptive architectures. In coordination with companion empirical efforts, it seeks to integrate optimization, modeling, and simulation-based research efforts with psychology-based and experimental activities to conduct humans-in-the-loop, model-driven experiments studying adaptive C2 architectures. The proposed models drive the formulation of hypotheses, the determination of key variables and their values, and the prediction of organizational performance and the processes of adaptation. The generated measures of organizational performance provide a basis for post-experimental model-data comparison. In addition, the implementation of the design procedure in software allows one to estimate the optimal experimental conditions to test a specific hypothesis. The empirical findings will assist a modeler in identifying new design parameters affecting organizational performance to further study the dependency of organizational performance on the mission structure and on organizational design.
This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA462332
Knowledge as Inventory: Near-Optimizing Knowledge and Power Flows in Edge Organizations (Phase One)
Personal Author(s): MacKinnon, Douglas J
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 21 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *OPTIMIZATION, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *ORGANIZATION THEORY, *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, *KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SIMULATION, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, INVENTORY, POWER, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), SKILLS, DECISION MAKING, SYMPOSIA
Identifiers: (U) KNOWLEDGE FLOWS, KCM(KNOWLEDGE CHAIN MANAGEMENT), POWER FLOWS, ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE, ORGANIZATION THEORY, EDGE ORGANIZATIONS
Abstract: (U) This paper reports on Phase I of a two-phase research project to model, simulate and ultimately optimize knowledge flows in Edge organizations. We begin by describing knowledge as a set of discrete yet perishable skills, and consider how these perishable skills flow through organizations in response to demand triggered by environmental changes. We hypothesize that analyzing the stocks and flows of perishable knowledge inventory" in organizations, analogous to analyzing those of perishable physical goods inventory in a supply chain, uncovers useful insights to clarify current understanding and permits initial quantification of knowledge management impacts on organizational performance. We examine differences between knowledge and physical goods, and explore how we can adapt methods for costs of knowledge inventory additions, subtractions, reordering as well as EOQ, holding times, inventory doctrines of Just-In-Case, Just-In-Time, and make vs. buy decisions. The discussion leads to the concept of Knowledge Chain Management (KCM). KCM can provide military and business practitioners with a useful framework for maintaining knowledge (and therefore power) levels; and KCM provides a new theoretical lens to frame future research (including our Phase II research) in terms of knowledge and power flows.
ADA446823
Toward Incentives for Military Transformation: A Review of Economic Models of Compensation
Personal Author(s): Savych, Bogdan
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), *PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *COMPENSATION, *ECONOMIC MODELS, *TRANSFORMATIONS, RISK, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), HIERARCHIES, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, CREATIVITY, COOPERATION, RETIREMENT, SALARIES, PRODUCTIVITY, BEHAVIOR, MOTIVATION
Identifiers: (U) HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATIONS, PROMOTION TOURNAMENT SYSTEM, CAREER INCENTIVES, CREATIVE THINKING, RISK TAKING, DEFERRED COMPENSATION, RETIREMENT PAY, MILITARY PENSION, PAY FOR PERFORMANCE, ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS, TEAM-BASED INCENTIVES, FREE-RIDE EFFECT, NONMONETARY FACTORS, FLEXIBILITY
Abstract: (U) Recent efforts toward military transformation have extensive implications for the military's personnel management and compensation systems. In addition to the existing goals of ensuring effective participation of individuals in the military (attracting, retaining, and developing qualified personnel), the compensation and personnel systems of a transformed military should emphasize effort and performance incentives by encouraging reasonable risk-taking and innovation, allow for greater speed and flexibility in deployment, and support more decentralized forces. The worry, however, is that current military systems cannot facilitate simultaneously all the needs of a transformed military. This report reviews economic models of compensation in a hierarchical organization and identifies factors within the military compensation system that might constrain or facilitate transformation efforts. In particular, it focuses on how lessons from these economic compensation models can be used to increase flexibility of personnel management and provide incentives for creative thinking and performance and well-calculated risk-taking. Frameworks reviewed in this report are useful in describing the behavior of military personnel and patterns of performance in the military. This report is part of a larger project titled "Enhancing the Flexibility of the Military Compensation System." The project seeks to define ways of simplifying and adding flexibility to the military compensation system that bring value to the military organization and support the goals of military transformation. Further effort within the project would use existing military compensation models to determine what changes to the compensation system would support transformation.
ADA435678
Informal Institutions and the "Weaknesses" of Human Behavior
Personal Author(s): Goebel, Markus; Thomas, Tobias
Report Date: Jan 2005
Media Count: 24 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ECONOMICS, *BEHAVIOR, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, POLITICAL SCIENCE, MODELS, CONSISTENCY, GERMANY, MENTAL ABILITY, PERCEPTION, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, CONFORMITY, ASPIRATORS
Identifiers: (U) FOREIGN REPORTS, AQ F05-10-3169, POLITICAL REFORM
Abstract: (U) Political reforms can be understood as the reconfiguration of formal institutions. The rational choice of formal institutions is the core topic of the New Institutional Economics research program. While bounded rationality is a core assumption of the New Institutional Economics and the reason for suboptimal behavior there, additional reference is made to the individual aspiration to interpersonal consistency and interpersonal conformity here. These sources of a systematic deviation from the standard model of the homo oeconomicus result in systematic weaknesses of perception and deviations of behavior. This contribution connects shared mental models as informal institutions in the sense of North with well-established social psychological approaches and thereby leads to an integrative reflection of the insights in a stringent model framework.
ADA432707
Dynamic Military Civilian Crowd Simulations Through Allegiance Grouping
Personal Author(s): Kaup, David J; Malone, Linda; Lanham, Susan; Oleson II, Rex R; Sepehrifar, Mohammad; Chen, Ping; Kaup, Galen T; Clarke, Thomas
Report Date: Dec 2004
Media Count: 3 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *CIVILIAN PERSONNEL, *COMBAT SIMULATION, WARFARE, SYMPOSIA, ENVIRONMENTS, MODELS, MILITARY APPLICATIONS
Identifiers: (U) COMPONENT REPORTS, CROWDS
Abstract: (U) Most of the techniques that have been developed for modeling crowds of individuals are based around interactions with the surrounding environment. The purpose of this study is to develop a means for modeling a grouping dynamic for individuals without being dependent on exterior influences from the environment. The goal of this study is to show potential application for military combat simulations.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited., Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA429204
Short- and Long-Term Effects of Participation in a Cross-Cultural Simulation Game on Intercultural Awareness
Personal Author(s): Mills, Vanessa; Smith, Rebekah
Report Date: Nov 2004
Media Count: 76 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SIMULATION, *CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), *INTERACTIONS, *INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, TRAINING, PILOT STUDIES, AUSTRALIA, QUESTIONNAIRES, NEGOTIATIONS, URBAN WARFARE, MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS
Identifiers: (U) FOREIGN REPORTS, AQ F05-04-0720, INTERCULTURAL AWARENESS, GAMES, MOUT(MILITARY OPERATIONS IN URBAN TERRAIN), VALUE SYSTEMS
Abstract: (U) The increase in military operations in urban terrain has created a requirement for deployed personnel to interact with people from other cultural backgrounds. This research aims to identify a base level method of enhancing the general cultural awareness of deployed personnel. Previous research in the business community has led to developing simulation games to enhance these generic intercultural skills. The general approach of this work is for teams of players, each adopting a different synthetic culture, to negotiate a pre-defined outcome with the other teams. The aim is to produce insight into cultural differences through interactions with others, and to develop skills for dealing with those differences through negotiation. Debriefs immediately following game play are used to reinforce learning. To date, however, there are no quantitative methods of measuring the effectiveness of these games in terms of their ability to change attitudes and awareness. In addition, there do not appear to be any attempts to examine long-term retention of such changes. Consequently, this research measured the short- and long-term effectiveness of training through simulation to enhance intercultural awareness. Overall, results indicate an immediate and long-term increase in cultural understanding, while there were no changes in underlying value systems.
ADA458112
Database Issues for Intelligence Analysis
Personal Author(s): Ayres, Robert; Harris, Ross D; Lee, Graham; Smith, Steve J
Report Date: 25 Oct 2004
Media Count: 34 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DATA BASES, *INTELLIGENCE, *COUNTERTERRORISM, *INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, SYMPOSIA, UNITED KINGDOM, GROUP DYNAMICS, TERRORISM, PATTERNS
Identifiers: (U) *INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS, *GRAPH-BASED DATABASES, *DATA MODELS, *HYDRA DATABASE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATIONS, COMPONENT REPORTS, NATO FURNISHED, FOREIGN REPORTS
Abstract: (U) The use of database systems in police investigative work is well established and similar technology will be required to support counter terrorism. A key feature of terrorism is that it is predominantly a group activity. This has important implications for analysing terrorism-related intelligence in that systems must help analysts uncover patterns of activity which may be obscured by being distributed over a network of individuals or organisations. In this paper we argue that the record-oriented representation of data on which most current database technology is based is not well-suited for such applications. Another form of representation, known as graph-based databases, organises information as a network of connected facts and is better suited to supporting queries concerned with finding associations and links between various entities such as people, events, organisations and so forth. We briefly discuss a database system that has been built on top of a graph-oriented representation of data in order to show that such systems are feasible. Furthermore such systems can support a broader range of queries, in particular the kinds of queries that are likely to be required in intelligence analysis.
ADA427090
Effective Use of Collaborative Information Technology to Enhance Group Performance
Personal Author(s): Gallaher, Patrick; O'Rourke, Julie
Report Date: Sep 2004
Media Count: 55 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DATA MANAGEMENT, *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, OPTIMIZATION, CORES, DECISION MAKING, DEFENSE SYSTEMS, GROUP DYNAMICS, MODELS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), TOOLS, NAVY, DATA ACQUISITION
Identifiers: (U) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Abstract: (U) This research was inspired by the need to create a universal net-centric environment to enable collaborative defense capabilities and deliver knowledge dominance to the DoD. Since superior information management and the use of collaborative IT technologies is fundamental to building intelligence capabilities, this study aims to contribute to the optimization of collaborative system use by military groups and organizations. The proposed research model illustrates and explains the direct relationships between collaborative IT competence and collaborative functionalities, which can be used not only to assess current technologies but also aid in requirements generation for designing the ideal collaborative tool suite. Central to the research model we introduce the concept of collaborative IT competence, defined as the effective use of collaborative functionalities, and explore its relationship to performance outcomes. Having pre-tested and validated the proposed research model by means of empirical data collection in the form of an end-user survey instrument we recommend further research be conducted on a Navy-wide scale to evaluate the 181 collaborative technology tools currently in use. End-user/warfighter insight will dramatically influence future CIT investment decisions by providing decision makers critical information regarding the pragmatic versus the advertised attributes of the application/tool suite. Additionally, this model is designed to provide the road map to the ideal combination of core functionalities and required collaborative IT competence.
Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA460017
CORES - Complex Organizational Reasoning System
Personal Author(s): Kowalchuck, Michael; Singh, Siddhartha; Carley, Kathleen M
Report Date: Sep 2004
Media Count: 64 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *REASONING, *NETWORK ARCHITECTURE, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, ORGANIZATIONS, DECISION MAKING
Identifiers: (U) CORES(COMPLEX ORGANIZATIONAL REASONING SYSTEM)
Abstract: (U) In Operations Other Than War (OOTW), there is a need for intelligence analysts and military planners to anticipate the actions and responses of complex networked organizations such as terrorist groups, nation-states and key actors (such a high-level leaders). The Complex Organizational Reasoning System (CORES) is a multi-agent network simulation model that uses organizational, social, political and economic dynamics to generate predictions of the likely actions and responses of these actors when involved in an adversarial context.
ADA446320
Multi-Mission Selective Maintenance Decisions
Personal Author(s): Cassady, C R; Nachtmann, Heather L; Schneider, Kellie; Rainwater, Chase; Rieske, Jeff; Stout, Jason ; Johnson, Rebekah; Judy, Brittany; Carrasco, Mauricio; Maillart, Lisa M
Report Date: Jul 2004
Media Count: 38 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DECISION MAKING, MISSION PROFILES, MULTIMISSION, MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, RELIABILITY, LOGISTICS
Identifiers: (U) *SELECTIVE MAINTENANCE, STINFO(SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION), PE63231F, WUAFRL49230031
Abstract: (U) The primary objective of this research was to develop a modeling-based methodology for managing selective maintenance decisions when the planning horizon is more than one future mission. First, the research literature for selective maintenance is presented. The selective maintenance literature is limited in that current models only consider a single, future mission. Next, background research is presented in which the selective maintenance model treating decision-making relative to a single, future mission is defined. This model serves as the foundation for our multi-mission analysis. In this work, we define a scenario in which a system must perform a sequence of missions. The reliability characteristics of the system are defined, and we extend the single- mission scenario parameters such that decision variables for one mission are the input parameters for the next mission. An objective function that maximizes the expected number of successful missions remaining in the planning horizon is defined. Finally, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model to solve the multi-mission scenario and present a numerical example. This example shows that the selective maintenance decisions relative to a multi-mission scenario may differ from the decisions for a single-mission scenario.
ADA465897
Do Teams Adapt to Fatigue in a Synthetic C2 Task?
Personal Author(s): Chaiken, Scott; Barnes, Christopher; Harville, Donald; Miller, James C; Elliot, Linda; Dalrymple, Mathieu; Tessier, Philip; Fisher, Joseph
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 21 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), TEST AND EVALUATION, SYMPOSIA, GROUP DYNAMICS, WORKLOAD, FATIGUE(PHYSIOLOGY), MISSIONS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), COGNITION
Identifiers: (U) BRIEFING CHARTS, FATIGUE MODELING, SAFTE(SLEEP ACTIVITY FATIGUE TASK EFFECTIVENESS) MODEL, PE62202F, WUAFRL7757P904
Abstract: (U) There has been little systematic research on fatigue for teams when compared to individuals. We investigated how team performance degrades with sustained operations on a PC-based moderate fidelity air battle management synthetic task. Teams of ISR, Strike, and Sweep battle managers conducted 8 one-hour missions from 1830 to 1030 the following day, along with performance assessment batteries (during alternate hours of testing). This modest fatigue protocol allowed us to explore team fatigue assessment for both mission outcome and team process, complementing past analyses (Elliott, Coovert, Barnes, Miller, 2003; Harville, Elliott, Coovert, Barnes, Miller, 2003). In addition, one of the team roles had lower workload, allowing us to assess whether the lighter role would receive greater workload in fatigued vs. non-fatigued conditions, as a team-adaptive fatigue countermeasure. Our results showed participants performing more poorly while fatigued both on cognitive tests and on one dimension of mission outcome (number of enemy kills) but not on others (friendly losses to fuel outs and hostile actions). General activity level for the team roles declined with fatigue (number of orders issued, information seeking). Finally, while roles recognized the value of offloading work onto the lighter role, this tendency did not significantly increase with fatigue.
ADA465691
Organizational Structure and Dynamic Information Awareness in Command Teams
Personal Author(s): Baker, Keith; Entin, Elliot E; See, Katrina; Baker, Bonnie S
Downes-Martin, Stephen; Cecchetti, Jon
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 22 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, ORGANIZATIONS, PREDICTIONS, DYNAMICS, HEURISTIC METHODS, RECONNAISSANCE, AWARENESS, MILITARY COMMANDERS, MISSIONS, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), MODELS, DECISION MAKING
Identifiers: (U) *NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE, FORCENET
Abstract: (U) The Navy has embraced the concept of network centric warfare as a means to develop innovative and effective command and control (C2) structures for the future. One such C2 structure is FORCEnet. Modeling of various FORCEnet-derived structures produced a prediction that a C2 structure that includes an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) coordinator would significantly improve mission performance. Network centric warfare, however, has increased the information load commanders must deal with. As part of this effort we investigated the effects of information load on certain decision making heuristics. Counter to modeling predictions, a FORCEnet derived organization with an ISR coordinator was not superior in performance to an organization without an ISR coordinator. There was evidence, however, that increased familiarity and practice with a structure including an ISR coordinator may produce findings supportive of model predictions. Findings also indicate that high information load may exacerbate the negative effects of certain decision making heuristics.
ADA465773
Including Organizational Cultural Parameters in Work Processes
Personal Author(s): Handley, Holly A; Heacox, Nancy J
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 31 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ORGANIZATIONS, *DECISION MAKING, *MODELS, *PARAMETERS, ALGORITHMS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, CULTURE, DOCTRINE
Identifiers: (U) *INTEGRATIVE DECISION SPACE MODEL, WORK PROCESSES
Abstract: (U) Recent work in modeling decision-making work processes has focused on including the national culture of individual decision-makers in order to emphasize the differences in decision criteria between decision-makers of different nationalities. In addition to nationality, a decision-maker is also a member of an organization and brings this organizational culture to his role in the work process, where it may also affect his task performance. In order to represent the organizational impact on the work process, five organizational cultural parameters were identified and included in an algorithm for modeling and simulation of cultural difference in human decision-making. While the five modifiers are not orthogonal, each captures a unique aspect of the organizational impact. The organizational cultural parameters are Authority Distance, Interface Culture, Command Authority, Doctrine, and Hierarchical Arrangement. This allows the prediction of outcome changes for a work process when interacting decision-makers have similar national cultures but whose organizational culture is different. The effect of including these parameters was illustrated on a Public Affairs Office process that integrated U.S. and U.K. decision-makers.
This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA427736
Interagency Fratricide: Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia
Personal Author(s): Rast, Vicki J
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 452 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA, *POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS, *PERSIAN GULF WAR, POLICIES, NATIONAL SECURITY, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, LEADERSHIP, MODELS, MISSIONS, CONFLICT, ORGANIZATION THEORY, FRATRICIDE
Identifiers: (U) *INTERAGENCY CONFLICT, CONFLICT TERMINATION(CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES), RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY, BUREAUCRACY
Abstract: (U) Decision makers do not make choices as unitary actors. This study examines interagency conflicts within the US government's decision-making processes in cases of coercive intervention and the manner in which such conflicts affect policies regarding termination and withdrawal. Specifically, it also examines conflict termination policies regarding the second Persian Gulf War and the Bosnia conflict.
ADA465867
Inducing Adaptation in Organizations: Concept and Experiment Design
Personal Author(s): Entin, Elliot E; Weil, Shawn A; Kleinman, David L; Hutchins, Susan G; Hocevar, Susan P; Kemple, William G; Serfaty, Daniel
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 30 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *MISSIONS, *ADAPTATION, *ORGANIZATIONAL REALIGNMENT, SCENARIOS, BARRIERS, OFFICER PERSONNEL, MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, DISTRIBUTED INTERACTIVE SIMULATION, MILITARY PLANNING, WORKLOAD, ALLOCATIONS, COSTS, FEEDBACK, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), SYMPOSIA
Identifiers: (U) *ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, *STRUCTURAL ADAPTATION, *MISSION CHANGE, ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE, HUMAN ORGANIZATIONS, BARRIERS TO CHANGE, ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN, TEAM COORDINATION, DDD(DISTRIBUTED DYNAMIC DECISION-MAKING), MISSION SCENARIOS, INCONGRUENCE, BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) Mission performance is likely to be high when organizational structures are "congruent" with the mission and degraded when organizational structures are "incongruent" with the mission. All else being equal, it is to an organization's advantage to monitor the fit between its structure and mission, and to alter its structure when a misfit is identified. The authors afforded teams the opportunity to adapt their organizational structure to changes in the mission. In the forced case, teams had to allocate new assets to deal with a SCUD threat entering theater. In another situation, the team could adapt their organizational structure to a mission that had grown incongruent with that structure. The authors' primary interest was this adaptation process. Results indicate that the teams did adapt; frequently, they made many small changes to adjust workload and to compensate for weak team members. Less frequently, they made major changes in response to changing mission and task requirements. Teams appeared reluctant to make the larger changes necessary to realign organizational structure and mission. This reluctance stems in part from their concern with the cost of change and in part from a difficultly in understanding organizational structures and the ramifications of changes made to the structures. Enhanced training and model-driven decision aids may help to ameliorate these problems. Seventeen briefing charts summarize the presentation.
ADA466002
The Control of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS)
Personal Author(s): Lawless, W F; Bergman, Margo; Feltovich, Nick
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 15 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *ORGANIZATION THEORY, *INFORMATION PROCESSING, DATA BASES, MODELS, PERTURBATIONS, GAME THEORY, PERCEPTION, QUANTUM THEORY, SYMPOSIA
Identifiers: (U) COMPONENT REPORTS, SYSTEM THEORY AND CONTROL
Abstract: (U) Doubt continues that current theories and practices can produce agent or multiagent system (MAS) autonomy (Pynadath et al., 2001), imperiling future MAS missions (Lawless & Grayson, 2004). One possible reason is that from the view of methodological individualism (Nowak & Sigmund, 2004), reality is a stable phenomenon meaning that a single best view of reality is mathematically possible, a thesis that Benardete (2002) rejects. Alternatively, social reality is bistable (bistability occurs when a phenomena exists in one of two interdependent states; e.g., bistable interpretations refer to two stable, incommensurable interpretations of one data set, illustration, or phenomenon), and is best modeled by the quantum relations (Bohr, 1955). Given multiple interpretations of the same context or situation, to control an MAS, a group or decision maker can choose to avoid multiple interpretations as advised by Nash (1950) in order to converge mathematically to a consensus which we conclude is optimal to enact solutions for well-defined problems (wdp's), or to exploit these multiple interpretations which we conclude is the only way to solve ill-defined problems (idp's) (Lawless & Grayson, 2004).
ADA466128
A Model of Tactical Battle Rhythm
Personal Author(s): Duffy, LorRaine; Bordetsky, Alex; Bach, Eric; Blazevich, Ryan; Oros, Carl
Report Date: Jun 2004
Media Count: 23 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TACTICAL WARFARE, *COLLABORATIVE TECHNIQUES, GROUP DYNAMICS, BATTALION LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, MODEL THEORY, SQUADRONS, TACTICAL DATA SYSTEMS, FEEDBACK, TACTICAL ANALYSIS
Identifiers: (U) BATTLE RHYTHM, OODA(OBSERVE ORIENT DECISION ACT) LOOP, TOC(TACTICAL OPERATION CENTER)
Abstract: (U) The purpose of battle rhythm management is the maintenance of synchronized activity and process among distributed warfighters. It is most critical in rapidly evolving situations or in highly distributed operations. Successful battle rhythm implies the synergism of procedures, processes, technologies, individual activities and collective actions at warfighter, staff level, command node, and unit levels in order to facilitate military operations. The concept is ubiquitous in daily military operations (particularly at the operational level of command), but little exists to define it at the tactical level or substantiate its existence in the experimental or analytical literature. There is a need to establish a common referent, a model of tactical battle rhythm, in order to discover the methods best suited to command and control it. If the battlefield has turned electronic, then so too must our methods for synchronizing the actions of thousands of warfighters. We propose that the judicious employment of collaborative technologies among distributed warfighters is one strategy for managing tactical battle rhythm. We assert that the increasing reliance on collaborative technologies will lead to successful management of tactical battle rhythm. However, we need a way to model the tactical battle rhythm in order to predict the most effective times to use collaborative tools. We propose a conceptual framework of tactical battle rhythm (TBR) and present a model of real world TBR in the context of a notional humanitarian assistance operation. The focus of our model is at the battalion/squadron/combat/service support group level, in an attempt to explore the execution phase of warfighter activities, the activities that define the tactical level.
ADA426981
Cultural Modeling of Command and Control Echelons
Personal Author(s): Mui, Rebecca; Bagnall, Tim; LaVine, Nils
Peters, Steven; Sargent, Bob
Report Date: Apr 2004
Media Count: 96 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, SIMULATION, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS, TEST BEDS, HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING, CULTURE, BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, CLIENT SERVER SYSTEMS, HIGH LEVEL ARCHITECTURE
Identifiers: (U) CART(COMBAT AUTOMATION REQUIREMENTS TESTBED), *CMC2(CULTURAL MODELING OF COMMAND AND CONTROL), IADS(INTEGRATED AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM), INTELLIGENT CONTROLLER NODES, JIMM(JOINT INTEGRATED MISSION MODEL), OPFOR(OPPOSING FORCES), HPM(HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODEL), PE63231F, WUAFRL49230406
Abstract: (U) The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) funded Micro Analysis and Design (MA&D) to address the needs of the Cultural Modeling of Command and Control (CMC2) project from September 2001 to April 2004. Specifically, the technical effort consisted of three primary objectives as follows: 1)Investigate cultural factors and add cultural modeling capabilities to an existing human performance modeling tool to allow users to easily inject cultural effects into a human performance model; 2)Create a client-server architecture between the Human Performance Model (HPM) tool and a constructive simulation using High Level Architecture (HLA) and Direct Shared Memory (DSM) to allow entities to receive higher fidelity behavioral representation from an external simulation tool; 3)Develop a model of an Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) for two different cultures to demonstrate the functionality of the enhanced HPM tool as well as the interaction of the HPM with a constructive simulation operating in a client-server environment. Two existing technologies were selected for this effort: the Combat Automation Requirements Testbed (CART) and the Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM). CART was chosen as the human performance modeling tool to be upgraded with cultural modeling capabilities and was modified to communicate using a client-server architecture via HLA and DSM. JIMM was selected as the constructive simulation to link with the enhanced CART HPM tool to enable it to receive higher fidelity human performance representations. The end product of the CMC2 effort is a toolkit capable of performing cultural modeling within an HPM tool and benefiting from the many advantages of a stand-alone HPM operating through a client-server architecture. Availability: Document partially illegible.
ADA428601
A Lessons Learned Knowledge Warehouse to Support the Army Knowledge Management Command-Centric
Personal Author(s): Champoux, Pierrette; Trudel, Martin; Thibault, Gaetan
Report Date: Mar 2004
Media Count: 58 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *LESSONS LEARNED, *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, *CANADA, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *DATA FUSION, *ARMY OPERATIONS, *KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, LAND WARFARE, SYMPOSIA, DECISION MAKING, DATA MANAGEMENT, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), TARGET ACQUISITION, THREAT EVALUATION, DATA ACQUISITION, MAN COMPUTER INTERFACE, SURVEILLANCE, RECONNAISSANCE, CZECH REPUBLIC, TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE, SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Identifiers: (U) CANADIAN ARMED FORCES, NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE, JDL DATA FUSION MODEL, LFC2IS(LAND FORCE COMMAND AND CONTROL INFORMATION SYSTEM), NATO FURNISHED, FOREIGN REPORTS, COMPONENT REPORTS, BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) The Canadian Army Lessons Learned Knowledge Warehouse (ALLKW) is at the heart of the environmental Knowledge Management (KM) strategy to support the Canadian Land Force Operational Model centered on Command. This paper presents the Army Lessons Learned System and Process (ALLP) that is part of the approach for gathering observations and comments from operations and exercises to support lesson elicitation and action identification as well as proper follow-up. Along with the description of the Lessons Learned (LL) Processes, a focus will be made on how the current system could be improved to facilitate its integration within the Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) Information-Centric Workspace Processes, in particular the interaction and use of such a system with the Data Fusion Processes and System. Thirty-seven briefing charts summarize the presentation. (8 figures, 19 refs.)
Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche., NATO
ADA433093
Simulation of Small Group Discussions for Middle level of Detail Crowds
Personal Author(s): Patel, Jigish; Parker, Robert; Traum, David
Report Date: Jan 2004
Media Count: 5 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *ALGORITHMS, *GROUP DYNAMICS, SIMULATION
Identifiers: (U) SMALL CROWDS, CONVERSATION
Abstract: (U) We present an algorithm for animating middle level of detail crowds engaged in conversation. Based on previous work from Padilha and Carletta, this algorithm is used to provide gestures for group characters in an embedded virtual world.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited., Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA421089
Coding Verbal Interactions in a Prototype Future Force Command and Control Simulation
Personal Author(s): Durlach, Paula J; Bowens, Laticla D; Neumann, John L; Carnahan, Thomas J
Report Date: Jan 2004
Media Count: 65 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *COMBAT FORCES, *VERBAL BEHAVIOR, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, GROUP DYNAMICS, INTERACTIONS, CODING
Identifiers: (U) FCS(FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEMS), PE602785A
Abstract: (U) As the U.S. Army undergoes transformation, it will need reliable means of measuring and training complex new skills. Acquiring those will require analysis of human behavior in the context of human-in-the-loop simulations of Future Combat Systems (FCS) still in the concept exploration phase. The goal of the present effort was to establish and measure command group behavior observed in such a human-in-the-loop simulation via analysis of the verbal interactions of the command group. A coding scheme for command group verbal interactions was devised and applied to several simulation runs in which a command group of 4 experienced Army Lt. Col.'s controlled an array of simulated unmanned air and ground platforms to accomplish a deliberate attack mission. This report documents the development of the coding scheme, the analysis results, and considers various other approaches for analyzing verbal data.
ADA425451
The Relevance of Human Behaviour Representation in Future C2 Systems: Current and Future Research Approaches
Personal Author(s): Baeyer, Alexander von
Report Date: Dec 2003
Media Count: 30 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *DECISION MAKING, *GROUP DYNAMICS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *COUNTERTERRORISM, *PEACEKEEPING, SCENARIOS, SYMPOSIA, OPTIMIZATION, MILITARY ASSISTANCE, LEADERSHIP, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), COGNITION, STRESS(PSYCHOLOGY), GERMANY, BEHAVIOR, MOTIVATION, ORGANIZATION THEORY, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, EMOTIONS
Identifiers: (U) *HUMAN BEHAVIOR RESEARCH, *HUMAN BEHAVIOR MODELING, HUMAN BEHAVIOR REPRESENTATION, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR REPRESENTATION, PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS, POST COLD WAR ERA, HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, NATO CODE OF BEST PRACTICE IN COMMAND AND CONTROL ASSESSMENT, NATO FURNISHED, FOREIGN REPORTS, COMPONENT REPORT
Abstract: (U) This paper is divided into three parts: (1) a general plea for more Human Behaviour Research (HBR) in the area of military command and control, taking into account the new military challenges of peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and terrorism; (2) a short discussion of German study projects about HBR and Organisational Behaviour Representation; and (3) a proposal for a comprehensive research plan for future analyses based upon the LTSS on HBR and the author's own research. The paper is followed by 21 briefing charts that summarize the presentation. (2 figures, 6 refs.)
Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche., NATO
ADA425260
The DIAMOND Model of Peace Support Operations
Personal Author(s): Bailey, Peter W
Report Date: Dec 2003
Media Count: 50 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, *PEACEKEEPING, *MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS, MILITARY PERSONNEL, LAND WARFARE, SYMPOSIA, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, DECISION MAKING, SPECIFICATIONS, MISSIONS, GRAPHICS, ENEMY, CIVILIAN POPULATION, NEGOTIATIONS, HUMAN RELATIONS, OBJECT ORIENTED PROGRAMMING, UNITED KINGDOM
Identifiers: (U) *PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS, *HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, *DIAMOND COMPUTER PROGRAM, OPERATIONS ANALYSIS TOOLS, PEACE ENFORCEMENT, DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS, DIAMOND(DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY OPERATIONS IN A NON-WARFIGHTING DOMAIN), CIVILIAN MILITARY RELATIONS, INTERVENTION FORCES, NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, BRIEFING CHARTS, NATO FURNISHED, FOREIGN REPORTS, COMPONENT REPORT
Abstract: (U) DIAMOND (Diplomatic And Military Operations in a Non-warfighting Domain) is a high-level stochastic simulation program developed at Defence Science and Technology Lab, Analysis, as a key centerpiece within the Peace Support Operations (PSO) modeling jigsaw. The program is designed to examine the utility of military force elements and equipment, the effectiveness of future force structures, and possible outcomes of different operational strategies within PSO. It represents the differing parties in a PSO, which may include military organizations, non-combatants, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and civilians, together with their relationships. (9 figures, 33 briefing charts)
Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche., NATO
ADA433422
Statistics and the Art of Model Construction
Personal Author(s): Vickers, Ross R , Jr
Report Date: 14 Nov 2003
Media Count: 82 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *STATE OF THE ART, *CONSTRUCTION, *STATISTICAL PROCESSES, GROUP DYNAMICS, MODELS, PATHS, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, BEHAVIOR
Identifiers: (U) MEASUREMENT MODELS, PATH MODELS, EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS, PE63706N, 6417
Abstract: (U) Behavioral models should be based on reliable knowledge. Reliable knowledge is achieved when a scientific community reaches consensus on the interpretation of available evidence. When properly used and interpreted, statistical models can aid in the process of principled argument that leads to consensus. This report reviews the state of the art for the use of statistical methods in behavioral modeling. The major topics covered are the construction of measurement models to quantify behavioral constructs, the construction of path models to describe relationships between behavioral constructs, issues associated with model appraisal and amendment, and methods of searching for alternatives to or refinements of existing models. Examples of specific topics include methods of evaluating the underlying nature of constructs (i.e., continuous or categorical), methods of constructing models that combine constructs from different research domains (e.g., individual growth, individual differences, and group processes), the place of significance tests in model evaluation, and methods of searching for new insights regarding behavior. Potential military applications are illustrated. Each section concludes by considering how the issues and methods discussed contribute to the process of principled argument that is needed to ensure that behavioral models are based on reliable knowledge.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited., Availability: This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA419007
Community Response to Terrorism: The South Korean Model
Personal Author(s): Hassig, Kongdan O
Report Date: Sep 2003
Media Count: 25 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *NATIONAL SECURITY, *CIVIL DEFENSE, *CIVILIAN POPULATION, *COUNTERTERRORISM, *SOUTH KOREA, NORTH KOREA, UNITED STATES, LEADERSHIP, COMMUNITIES, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), MODELS, THREATS, VOLUNTEERS, POLICE, TERRORISM, COOPERATION, SOCIOLOGY, FEDERAL LAW, WATCH(DUTY), HOMELAND SECURITY
Identifiers: (U) REPUBLIC OF KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF KOREA, 9/11, OPERATION TIPS, USA FREEDOM CORPS, DOD INFORMATION AWARENESS OFFICE, CITIZEN PREPAREDNESS GUIDE, PROFILING, INDIVIDUALISM, *COMMUNITY DEFENSE PROGRAMS, *NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH, CIVIL LIBERTIES, SOCIAL COHESION
Abstract: (U) A line of defense against terrorism that has not been well developed in the United States is the community or neighborhood watch. Some countries that have long histories of facing terrorist threats, such as the Republic of Korea (ROK), have made extensive use of the neighborhood watch. A neighborhood unit of 20 to 30 households reports unusual occurrences or suspicious individuals to a volunteer watch leader, who then notifies the authorities. The watch leader also communicates government directives to the neighborhood. In the ROK, the neighborhood watch program was much stronger in the 1960s through the 1980s than it is today. In the United States, neighborhood watches, especially as a defense against terrorists, are difficult to promote because the idea conflicts with our individualist culture. But if the United States continues to be the target of terrorists, Americans may become more willing to adopt community-defense programs and a collectivist lifestyle.
ADA457916
Coping with the Bounds: Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs
Personal Author(s): Czerwinski, Thomas J
Report Date: Aug 2003
Media Count: 274 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), *UNCERTAINTY, *WARFARE, *NONLINEAR SYSTEMS, *NATIONAL SECURITY, ALGORITHMS, ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, RISK MANAGEMENT, PATTERN RECOGNITION, LINEARITY, DECISION MAKING, INTERACTIONS, CHAOS, THEORY
Identifiers: (U) *NONLINEARITY, CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ, MURRAY GELL-MANN, LINEAR REDUCTIONISM, COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, ROBERT JERVIS, METAPHORS, MARTIN VAN CREVELD, CHARLES PERROW, SYSTEMS DYNAMICS, GENETIC ALGORITHMS, ACCIDENT PREVENTION, PETER SENGE, RECOGNITION-PRIMED DECISION MODEL, NONLINEAR FEEDBACK MODELS, ALAN BEYERCHEN, GEORGE JOHNSON, PAT PENTLAND
Abstract: (U) This book is about the implications of the new nonlinear sciences for national security and military affairs. Uncertainty abounds, and chaos theory rooted in physics and chemistry tells one why it is inevitable, pervasive, and won't go away. Fortunately, there is the "companion" new science of complexity, rooted in biology, that provides insights into what one can do about that. The author has adopted the term nonlinearity as a convenient umbrella for all of the various terminology and concepts that have proliferated in the field -- deterministic chaos, fractals, complexity and complex adaptive systems, self-organizing criticality, cellular automata, solitons -- because they all globally share this property. Nonlinearity reflects the science of the Information Age, rather than its technology. Currently, the awareness level about that science is low in comparison to the omnipresent technology. This book is intended to help correct this dangerous imbalance. The Information Age and its technology are largely considered to be synonymous in both the public and the military mind. The Revolution in Military Affairs debate to date has largely been shaped by that technology, including the pervasive rush of chip advances, computer utilities, and an increasingly Internetted world. The science is in its infancy, and is more about biology than about physics. It is some 20 years old, and required the computer to be invented before it could itself be discovered. This science has its own jargon: phase states, bifurcations, strange attractors, emergence, criticality and path-dependence. However, its message is post-Newtonian. Post-Newtonian means that the arrangement of nature -- life and its complications, such as warfare -- are nonlinear, where inputs and outputs are not proportional; where phenomena are unpredictable, but within bounds are self-organizing; where unpredictability frustrates conventional planning; and where a premium is placed on nonlinear reductionism. This document is not available from DTIC in microfiche.
ADA458020
Modeling Command and Control in Multi-Agent Systems
Personal Author(s): Ioerger, Thomas R; He, Linli
Report Date: Jun 2003
Media Count: 33 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *INFORMATION EXCHANGE, *SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, UNCERTAINTY, HUMANS, BEHAVIOR, PSYCHOLOGY, ARCHITECTURE, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), COGNITION, WARFARE, SYMPOSIA, COMPUTATIONS
Identifiers: (U) *COMBAT SIMULATIONS, *INTELLIGENT AGENTS, COLLABORATIVE BEHAVIOR, TDM(TACTICAL DECISION MAKING), ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY, *MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS, INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Abstract: (U) Intelligent agents can be quite useful as entities in combat simulations. Recently, there has been a great deal of research on developing enhanced methods for implementing intelligent agents in combat simulations, such as by introducing models of teamwork and collaborative behavior. However, modeling of command-and-control has lagged behind. Much is known about command-and-control in human tactical decision-making (TDM) teams from studies in cognitive science and organizational psychology. These studies suggest that human decision-makers tend to follow a Naturalistic Decision-Making process, in which situation awareness plays a key role. Hence command-and-control is heavily focused on information-gathering and information-fusion activities, oriented toward reducing uncertainty and identifying the situation, based on which an appropriate response can be applied (or adapted) from experience or training. In this paper, we provide a brief survey of multi-agent systems architectures, with a focus on combat simulations, and a survey of the cognitive literature on human situation awareness and tactical decision-making. Then we describe a new computational model for command-and-control in multi-agent systems. Primarily, the model focuses on a procedural representation of situation assessment and attempts to capture the decisions regarding information-gathering and information management activities, though we also discuss how to integrate these activities with other on-going aspects of C2 (mission, threat-handling, etc.) using prioritization. We then discuss an approach to extending this procedure to a team task, which should automatically generate the interactions and information flow necessary to simulate distributed situation awareness.
ADA466693
A Quantum Approach to Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), Organizations, and Control
Personal Author(s): Lawless, W F
Report Date: Jun 2003
Media Count: 42 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *ORGANIZATIONS, *GROUP DYNAMICS, *PROBLEM SOLVING, *QUANTUM THEORY, *DECISION MAKING, UNCERTAINTY, DECISION THEORY, MARKOV PROCESSES, DENSITY FUNCTIONAL THEORY, GAME THEORY, ORGANIZATION THEORY, CONFLICT, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, COGNITION, INTERACTIONS, SYMPOSIA, ROBOTICS, OPTIMIZATION
Identifiers: (U) *SQM(SOCIAL QUANTUM MODEL), SOCIAL THEORY, SOCIAL MODELS, SOFTWARE AGENTS, MULTI-AGENT AUTONOMY, COMPUTATIONAL AGENTS, IDFT(INFORMATION DENSITY FUNCTIONAL THEORY), DISSONANCE LEARNING THEORY, BRIEFING CHARTS
Abstract: (U) In some rapidly approaching future, on a battlefield, deep-space or planetary mission, teams of agents will be confronted with a problem beyond their computational capability, putting missions at risk. This risk arises from a lack of social theory based on first principles for decision-making in the face of ill-defined problems (IDPs). Also, no first principles exist to address the downside of cooperation (e.g., terrorist cells, corruption, and, regarding agents, reductions in computational power from communication costs when an increasing number of agents cooperates interactively). These problems make traditional social models impractical for a multiple-agent system to solve IDPs. In contrast to logical positivist models, such as command or consensus decision models, quantizing the pro-con positions in decision-making may produce a robust model that increases in computational power with "N." Previously, optimum solutions of IDPs were found to occur when incommensurable beliefs interacting before neutral decision makers generated sufficient emotion to process information, "I," but insufficient to impair the interaction, producing more trust compared to cooperation. This model has been extended to the first quantum information density functional theory of groups, especially mergers between organizations. The author now begins to integrate his model with Markovian models. Twenty-nine briefing charts summarize the presentation.
ADA473184
Personality & Cultural Modeling for Agent-Based Representation of a Terrorist Cell, Phase 1
Personal Author(s): Hogan, C M; Van Houten, Robert A; La, Nini
Report Date: Jan 2003
Media Count: 45 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *TERRORISTS, *COGNITION, *BEHAVIOR, *PERSONALITY TESTS, MILITARY OPERATIONS, DECISION MAKING, CULTURE, TERRORISM, VALIDATION, MILITARY TRAINING, MODELS, HUMANS, CELLS
Identifiers: (U) ABCM(ARCHITECTURE FOR BEHAVIOR AND COGNITIVE MODELING), NEO-PI-R(NEO PERSONALITY INVENTORY REVISED), TERRORIST CELLS, PE63832D, WUAFRL0476DM00
Abstract: (U) This report describes the research into the use of personality, cultural and socio-political modeling in order to provide a robust asymmetric opponent for Military Operation in Urban Terrain training. The report defines a plausible framework for modeling psychological and cultural influences and describes the development of rule sets to represent both the personality and cultural domains and demonstrate decision-making influences. The demonstration of collaboration among the rule sets is also shown. Results described in this report include the following: the NEO Personality Inventory Revised (NEO-PI-R) features make it a good basis for describing the behaviors of individuals whom the modeler does not have the luxury of testing; the cultural rule-set adequately supports the goals of exploring how two disparate influences on individual's decision-making might be provided to a simulation-based training exercise but it suffers from an insufficient basis in an excepted sociological model to allow for independent validation; and allowing rule-set collaboration only at the end of the chaining simplifies the analysis and is a therefore a logical first step in exploring collaboration.
ADA414497
Toward a Unified Theory of Work: Organizational Simulations and Policy Analyses
Personal Author(s): Vaughan, David S; Bennett, Winston, Jr
Report Date: Nov 2002
Media Count: 12 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, *THEORY, *MANPOWER, *JOB ANALYSIS, SIMULATION, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS, JOBS, POLICIES, ORGANIZATIONS, DECISION MAKING, TRAINING, OPERATIONAL READINESS, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), STATE OF THE ART, MISSIONS, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, BEHAVIOR, PSYCHOLOGY
Identifiers: (U) PE63231F, WUAFRL4924A206
Abstract: (U) The military environment is constantly changing and restructuring. Manpower, personnel, and training (MPT) planning and management is increasingly crucial to maintaining the mission readiness of the forces. The Department of Defense needs an integrated MPT planning and management system. We believe that a unified theory of work is needed to provide a framework and to guide and focus related research and development. This unified theory of work will connect theories of human traits and states, theories of task and job characteristics, theories of job/task performance, and perhaps theories of organizational behavior. For example, Mitchell and Driskill (1986, August), in Optimizing Integrated Personnel System Training Decisions and Development, presented at the State-of-the-Art Applications of Job Analysis: Integrated Personnel Systems, a symposium conducted at the American Psychological Association convention, in Washington, DC, proposed a theory that relates training to task performance, via a series of intervening and exogenous variables. Such a theory could be extended to encompass individual differences among workers and tasks, as well as key organizational and environmental variables. This paper explores key issues associated with a unified theory approach to MPT modeling and decision making. Further, basic research and development needs required for such an integrated approach are highlighted and discussed.
ADA468699
A Conceptual Operational Model for Command and Control of International Missions in the Canadian Forces
Personal Author(s): Cochran, Larry; Wheaton, Kendall
Report Date: Sep 2002
Media Count: 19 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *MODELS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *MISSIONS, *CANADA, *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, *MILITARY PLANNING, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, PEACEKEEPING, INTEROPERABILITY, COOPERATION, DIAGRAMS, SIMULATION LANGUAGES, SYMPOSIA, STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Identifiers: (U) IDEF(INTEGRATED COMPUTED-AIDED MANUFACTURING DEFINITION METHODS), *INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS, COP(CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS PLANS), JSAT(JOINT STAFF ACTION TEAM), CANADIAN FORCES, COA(COURSES OF ACTION), MISSION PLANNING, COP21(CONCEPTUAL OPERATIONAL ARCHITECTURE PROJECT), FOREIGN REPORTS
Abstract: (U) Defence Research and Development Canada-Valcartier has sponsored the development of a Conceptual Operational Model of the strategic planning process within the Canadian Forces Joint Staff. This model is intended to convey an understanding of the processes within the headquarters for planning and monitoring international missions. As such, it captures the command and control processes at the strategic level of the Department of National Defence. The objective was to construct an IDEF process model. An IDEF model is, however, a rather abstract representation and is not easily interpreted by itself. Therefore, the process adopted was to apply the information from surveying the Joint Staff in constructing three different views that contribute to the construction of an IDEF model. The first step was a simple context model that shows a single process (Plan development) and the primary interfaces with that process. The context diagram was supplemented with an activity diagram that breaks the process down into discrete activities and allocates those activities to the organizational elements. The third view constructed was a hierarchical view of the activities that provides a structured and more detailed breakdown of the activities. The three views of the planning process provide most of the information, in an easily understood form, that can be applied to the construction of an IDEF model. The model describes the process activities, objects, and attributes necessary to enable an evaluation of the headquarters process. The model enables the identification of target organizational cells for which new tools may be offered to improve the effectiveness of specific activities, such as mission planning, or to improve the quality of the products of those activities. The Conceptual Operational Model is the first step in the development of new support tools specifically in the domain of situation awareness and strategic planning.
ADA406072
A Computational Model and Multi-Agent Simulation for Information Assurance
Personal Author(s): VanPutte, Michael
Report Date: Jun 2002
Media Count: 197 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS, *ELECTRONIC SECURITY, *CHEMICAL AGENT DETECTORS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SCENARIOS, SIMULATION, COMPUTATIONS, ORGANIZATIONS, DEFENSE SYSTEMS, SOCIETIES, SECURITY, ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, GRAPHICS, LANGUAGE, BEHAVIOR, VISION, HYPOTHESES, COMPUTER NETWORKS, GENERATORS, ANALYSTS, INFRASTRUCTURE
Identifiers: (U) IA(INFORMATION ASSURANCE), *INFORMATION ASSURANCE, *INFORMATION SECURITY, COMPUTER SECURITY, MULTI-AGENT SYSTEM, MULTI-AGENT SIMULATION
Abstract: (U) The field of information assurance (IA) is too complex for current modeling tools, While security analysts may understand individual mechanisms at a particular moment, the interactions among the mechanisms, combined with evolving nature of the components, make understanding the entire system nearly impossible. This dissertation introduces a computational model of IA called the Social-Technical Information Assurance Model (STIAM). STIAM models organizations, information infrastructures, and human actors as a complex adaptive system. STIAM provides a structured approach to express organizational IA issues and a graphical notation for depicting the elements and interactions. The model can be implemented in a computational system to discover possible adaptive behavior in an IA environment. A multi-agent simulation is presented that introduces several innovations in multi-agent systems including iconnectors, a biologically inspired visual language and mechanism for inter-agent communications. The computational model and simulation demonstrate how complex societies of autonomous entities interact. STIAM can be implemented as a hypothesis generator for scenario development in computer network defensive mechanisms.
Availability: Hard copy only.
ADA402533
KSCO 2002: Second International Conference on Knowledge Systems for Coalition Operations
Personal Author(s): Tate, Austin
Report Date: May 2002
Media Count: 205 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SYMPOSIA, *JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, *KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS, *MILITARY PLANNING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE, COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION EXCHANGE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, LOGISTICS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR, COLLABORATIVE TECHNIQUES, SOFTWARE TOOLS, INFORMATION SECURITY, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
Identifiers: (U) COMPILATION REPORT, PROCEEDINGS, COALITIONS, INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Abstract: (U) This document contains the final proceedings for the interdisciplinary conference KSCO-2002 which covered the following topics: Innovative theory and techniques for coalition formation and "virtual organizations"; Applications and requirements for knowledge-based coalition planning and operations; Knowledge-based approaches to command and control; Knowledge-based approaches to coalition logistics; Applications and requirements for knowledge-based coalition planning; Knowledge-based approaches to OOTW (peace keeping, disaster relief or other humanitarian operations); Multi-agent systems and the concept of agency in coalitions; Tools and techniques for knowledge-based simulation and modeling of coalition operations; Security and maintenance of private information or knowledge in coalition operations; Autonomous vs. centrally managed coalition operations. Availability: Hard copy only.
ADA397360
Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks
Personal Author(s): Renfro, Robert S , II
Report Date: Dec 2001
Media Count: 237 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, *SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DECISION MAKING, MODELS, DECISION THEORY, COUNTERTERRORISM, GOAL PROGRAMMING
Identifiers: (U) SOCIAL NETWORKS, RELATIONSHIPS
Abstract: (U) This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. This research advances the science of Operations Research and its application to broad classes of problems dealing with social networks. Application areas span academic, private sector, and government analysis. Sample cases are used in this research from the private sector and government. Specifically, influencing foreign government decision making is demonstrated for the case of Iran. Counter-terrorism applications are demonstrated for a sample case using Usama Bin Ladin. The contributions of this research serve private and public sector users.
ADA400796
Evaluation of Cross-Cultural Models for Psychological Operations: Test of a Decision Modeling Approach
Personal Author(s): Barucky, Jerry; Karabaich, Bryan; Stone, Brice
Report Date: Jun 2001
Media Count: 77 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS, POLICIES, DECISION MAKING, CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), MODELS, INTELLIGENCE(HUMANS), OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR
Identifiers: (U) PE61102F, WUAFRL1123A210
Abstract: (U) Specific research objectives were to identify sample psychological operations (PSYOP) objectives likely to be sought in traditional wartime operations and from operations other than war; for two sample objectives, to identify cultural and situational factors that would influence a likelihood that a target audience (TA) would respond as desired; to determine if a policy-capturing methodology would result in a policy model that could assess the probability of a TA responding as desired under varying conditions; and to examine the degree that relationship of factors and TA response is consistent across cultures and situations. Comparisons of relative influence of factors across/within cultures showed moderate but inconsistent agreement between subjects/cultures. In general, decision analysis procedures proved to be easily implemented. From these results, there is strong indication that relevant influencing factors can be pre-identified for specific PSYOP objectives. However, additional research over a larger number of objectives/cultures is required to see if these results are generalized to different types of operations and target audiences.
ADA391229
A Force Structuring Model for a Moderately-Sized NATO Country
Personal Author(s): Bal, Hakan
Report Date: 03 Mar 2001
Media Count: 209 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, *MILITARY PLANNING, NATO, HIGH RATE, DECISION MAKING, THESES, PROCUREMENT, ROTATION
Abstract: (U) The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model which will aid the decision-makers of a moderately-sized NATO country to develop their future force structure composition. As the number of alternatives grows, and as the consequences become more important and more uncertain, the force structuring decision becomes increasingly difficult. The valuable lessons of past experience cannot be ignored. However, when one considers the high rotation rates of most countries' air forces, the rapid change in technology and the vast array of options available, even the most experienced leaders need some assistance. Hence, decision support tools are needed to aid senior-level decision processes. This research addresses a quantitative analytical support tool for senior decision-makers to use for future procurement decisions.
ADA391678
Modeling Tactical Level Combat Using a Multi-Agent System Design Paradigm (GI Agent)
Personal Author(s): Pawloski, Joel S
Report Date: Mar 2001
Media Count: 101 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *COMPANY LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, *COMBAT SIMULATION, ALGORITHMS, MODELS, INFANTRY, THESES
Identifiers: (U) MAS(MULTI AGENT SYSTEMS), COMBAT MODELING, HUMAN AND ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR, AGENT BASED SIMULATION, ADAPTIVE AGENTS, AUTONOMOUS AGENTS, GI AGENT SOFTWARE
Abstract: (U) In the past 60 years the Army has undergone a major reorganization eight times at the divisional level and numerous more times at unit levels below the division. Each time the Army reorganized it's divisions a major testing program was involved. But when a change in organization is done at unit levels below division often very little attention is paid to how the change will affect the unit. When this happens, unit leaders are forced to undertake one of the most difficult jobs in today's military incorporating new equipment into a unit or reorganizing a unit without an understanding of how the changes will affect the unit. The Military modeling and simulation community has attempted to fill this need but the current set of single entity simulations are limited in their ability to replicate dynamic complex behavior. This thesis is attempting to create a Multi-Agent Simulation that will allow analysts and leaders to gain an understanding of the tactical employment affects of changing the organization of a company level infantry unit. GIAgent is a simulation tool allowing the analyst and leader to experiment with the complex relationship between maneuver and unit organization without putting the unit in the field. Combining agent based artificial intelligence techniques with artificial intelligence research from the computer gaming industry, GI Agent creates a new paradigm for combat simulation. The GIAgent software uses the RELATE architecture designed by LCDR Kim Roddy, USN and Lt Mike Dixon, USN.
ADA391438
GSS Technology as a Moderator of Influence and Perceived Expertise
Personal Author(s): Thompson, Kevin V
Report Date: Mar 2001
Media Count: 149 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, *PROBLEM SOLVING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DECISION MAKING, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), INTERACTIONS, STRUCTURAL PROPERTIES, REPORTS, THESES, EQUATIONS, ARCTIC REGIONS, FORMICIDAE
Abstract: (U) Group Support System (355) research has found this content and process anonymity influence problem solving groups. However, previous studies report mixed results on how OSS technology changes social influence processes and recognition of expertise which affect group performance. This thesis explored content and process anonymity's affect on influence and perceived expertise using three treatments to derive possible explanations for the mixed results found in previous GSS research. The study developed a theoretical model of influence, perceived expertise, and performance. Using structural equation modeling the study tested the relationships between expertise and participation rates, and overall group performance. An experiment was developed to explore how content and process anonymity affect informational influence processes and recognition of expertise. Groups participated in conditions of complete anonymity, process only anonymity, and no anonymity. The results of this study suggest that varying levels of anonymity affect the influence processes exhibited by decision-making groups. In general, it was found that in facto-face groups, perceived expertise is based mostly on participation rates than actual expertise. In (355-supported groups, influence and perceived expertise occur through different interaction processes and expertise is based mostly on the quality and merits of individual arctic ants' comments.
ADA386919
Analyzing Personnel Retention Utilizing Multi-Agent Systems
Personal Author(s): French, Steven J
Report Date: Dec 2000
Media Count: 153 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *PERSONNEL RETENTION, *CHEMICAL AGENT DETECTORS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SIMULATORS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), REQUIREMENTS, MILITARY PERSONNEL, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, DEPLOYMENT, HIGH RATE, DECISION MAKING, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, ENLISTED PERSONNEL, FORECASTING, THESES, PROCESSING EQUIPMENT, CAREERS, NONLINEAR SYSTEMS, MANPOWER, LINEARITY, STRENGTH(GENERAL), HISTORY, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, BEHAVIOR, OFFICER PERSONNEL, MODEMS
Abstract: (U) As we enter the 21st Century, the Department of Defense finds itself facing a significant personnel crisis. Despite a thirty percent reduction in manpower needs, the military is continually failing to meet its retention requirements. There are numerous factors that are causing this problem, to include the booming US economy, the highest military deployment rates in our history, and the widespread use of the Internet. The result is that our service members have more non-military career options than ever before, and too many are choosing them. The problem appears to be getting worse as recent surveys indicate that over 50 percent of the enlisted force, and over 33 percent of the officer force intend to leave the military at their next opportunity. The drastic change in retention behaviors did not occur overnight, yet the military failed to react quickly to the change. The reason for this is that strength projections are calculated using linear models, which are based upon historical data; these programs are incapable of warning about non-linear behaviors. If the military had used supplemental non-linear models, we most likely would have been able to react sooner. This Thesis therefore provides the Military Personnel Retention Simulator (MPRS), a model for exploring non-linear retention behaviors in an ever-changing environment. The model utilizes modem object- oriented programming, high-speed processors, and multi-agent system concepts in order to provide an un-situated environment which users can manipulate in order to observe potential retention behaviors. The model is exploratory in nature, and is therefore not predictive. Users are therefore urged to utilize the MPRS in support of the decisions that they make, and not as the basis for such decisions.
ADA383885
Deployment Integration of United States Marine Corps and Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Squadrons: Is It A Viable Concept
Personal Author(s): Gackle, Jonathan O
Report Date: 02 Jun 2000
Media Count: 186 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *AIR FORCE, *DEPLOYMENT, *MARINE CORPS, *NATIONAL SECURITY, *STRATEGY, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), GLOBAL, EMERGENCIES, MODELS, SHAPE, REGIONS, JAPAN, INTEGRATION, VIABILITY, MILITARY COMMANDERS, AUSTRALIA, GEOGRAPHY, COOPERATION, NORTHEAST ASIA, NAVAL AIR STATIONS
Identifiers: (U) F/A-18 AIRCRAFT
Abstract: (U) The US National Security Strategy advocates an integrated strategic approach to security embodied by the terms Shape, Respond, and Prepare Now. Deployment integration is predicated on the third element--Preparing now for an uncertain future. The research model chosen for this study integrates an Australian F/A-18 squadron into the Marine F/A-18 unit deployment schedule at Marine Corps Air Station, Iwakuni, Japan. The study concludes that deployment integration is indeed a viable cooperative security strategy that should be pursued. Although the research model is not recommended as a permanent arrangement, USMC and RAAF F/A-18 squadron integration is advanced as an important contingency capability. The effect of this arrangement is likened to a force multiplier in that when hostilities break out anywhere around the globe, an existing F/A-18 unit exchange can transition to an immediate RAAF contingency capability in Northeast Asia. The advantage of this contingency capability is added flexibility for geographic combatant commanders to use U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 squadrons in other regions of the world when circumstances demand it.
ADA376833
Responses of Decision Making Teams to Adaptive Architectures: A Final Report
Personal Author(s): Hollenbeck, John R; Ilgen, Daniel R
Report Date: 01 May 2000
Media Count: 38 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, *GROUP DYNAMICS, *NAVAL PERSONNEL, *TEAMS(PERSONNEL), CONTROL, SIMULATION, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), DISTRIBUTION, HUMANS, STRUCTURES, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, BEHAVIOR, ARCHITECTURE, ADAPTATION
Identifiers: (U) TEAM ARCHITECTURE
Abstract: (U) The research reported here is part of a larger project designed to develop, assess and understand adaptive structures for command and control teams. Much of that project, the A2C2 project, uses a simulated command and control exercise (the Distributed Dynamic Decision-making Simulation (DDD)) and naval personnel who perform experimental exercises presented to them under controlled conditions. Our research is designed to focus on human behaviors relevant to the A2C2 project that cannot be sufficiently assessed in the simulation. Specifically, the effort reported here involved adapting the DDD exercise for use with large numbers of teams and to compare individual and team performance across these teams. The research assessed the impact of different team architectures, situational demands and team composition on the performance and adaptability of teams on the command and control exercise. An appendix to this report lists products produced during the funding period with citations to articles and presentations for the interested reader.
ADA380192
Opportunities for Improving Army Modeling and Simulation Development: Making Fundamental Adjustments and Borrowing Commercial Business Practices
Personal Author(s): Lee, John R
Report Date: 01 May 2000
Media Count: 39 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *NATIONAL SECURITY, *ARMY TRAINING, *LEADERSHIP TRAINING, *PROJECT MANAGEMENT, SIMULATION, MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, MILITARY STRATEGY, DECISION MAKING, MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, EMPLOYEE RELATIONS
Identifiers: (U) NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
Abstract: (U) The U.S. National Security Strategy calls for using all elements of national power to continue U.S. engagement and leadership abroad. The Army must balance decreasing resources with uncertain requirements; requirements which span the conflict spectrum. The Army's current staff training simulation development process could better support all possible scenarios by making some fundamental adjustments and borrowing commercial business practices. This paper briefly explores project management principles, leadership theory, and commercial business practices, suggesting improvements to the Army's modeling and simulation development process. Finally, the paper suggests adjustments that might improve the process and identifies areas for further research. Suggested adjustments and practices are: 1) Encourage senior leaders to meet regularly with project teams and review as part of regular counseling. 2) Empower modeling and simulation domain managers to make resource decisions. 3) Organize modeling and simulation personnel, to include standards category representatives into and make assignments from functional pools. 4) Train senior leaders and project managers to understand and articulate projects' support to Army vision and goals. Emphasize providing high quality products as a top modeling and simulation priority.
ADA458061
Simulation-based Agent Support in a Synthetic Team-based C2 Task Environment
Personal Author(s): Elliott, Linda R; Chaiken, Scott; Dalrymple, Mathieu; Petrov, Plamen; Stoyen, Alexander
Report Date: Jan 2000
Media Count: 13 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS, *COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS, *AIRBORNE WARNING AND CONTROL SYSTEM, AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE, SIMULATION, METHODOLOGY, DECISION MAKING, DEFENSE SYSTEMS, SURVEILLANCE, MILITARY FORCE LEVELS, THREATS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), DYNAMICS, AIRBORNE, INTERCEPTION
Identifiers: (U) AGENT TECHNOLOGIES, INTELLIGENT AGENT ASSISTANT
Abstract: (U) In our long-term program of research in command and control (C2) teamwork and performance, we have extensively analyzed the roles, responsibilities, and interdependencies of Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) Weapons Director (WD) teams, using a variety of methods. The AWACS WD team serves as a vital airborne C2 node, providing airborne surveillance and command, control, and communications functions for tactical and air defense forces. They detect, identify, track, and intercept airborne threats. Our investigations seek to identify tools and techniques to facilitate performance in this complex and dynamic domain. In this paper, we describe progress toward an agent-based decision support system, the AWACS WD Intelligent Agent Assistant (IAA). The WD-IAA will facilitate decision making for decision events which are both typical and time consuming. This paper will describe approach, methodology, and potential application areas for agent-technologies in C2 training.
ADA382392
Force Design, the Airmobile Concept and Operational Art
Personal Author(s): Huber, Francis J
Report Date: Jan 2000
Media Count: 51 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS, TEST AND EVALUATION, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS, DECISION MAKING, COMBAT SUPPORT, BATTLEFIELDS, STRUCTURES, FIELD TESTS, OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, CASE STUDIES, AIR STRIKES, HISTORY, DIVISION LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, TACTICAL WARFARE, MENTAL ABILITY, MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS
Abstract: (U) Force Design is the process of designing the organization of army units. The process involves building unit structures, including combat support and combat service support capabilities, and then validating those structures through testing and analysis. Historically the criteria for validating and testing those structures have focused on the tactical effectiveness of the unit. This monograph evaluates the design process to determine if it is capable of producing units oriented on operational effects. An organization designed to serve as an operational unit must have different competencies and capabilities from a unit that is a purely tactical formation. In order for the design process to produce a unit competent as an operationally oriented force the evaluation process must have an understanding of operational art and the characteristics of forces intended to support operational art. The 1962 Tactical Mobility Requirements Board, also known as the Howze Board, provides an instructive historical case study of the force design process. The Howze board was unique in that it was given the opportunity to design an entirely new formation, the Air Assault Division, to produce a new kind of effect on the battlefield. The Howze board also illustrates the current design process in that computer simulations and live field trials validated the decisions of the board. Finally, the validity of these results can be examined by looking at the operations of the 1st Cavalry Division (Airmobile)in the Pleiku campaign of 1965. This case study concludes that the elements of the force design process can be adapted to evaluate the operational effectiveness of a unit. To achieve this result the designers and evaluators must change their mental model of the test criteria. This will require test designers who understand operational employment and can design tests and criteria that support that understanding.
ADA461378
On Organizational Adaptation via Dynamic Process Selection
Personal Author(s): Handley, Holly A; Levis, Alexander H
Report Date: Jan 2000
Media Count: 24 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *DECISION MAKING, OUTPUT, CONTROL, STRATEGY, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), DYNAMICS, RESPONSE, WORKLOAD, SELECTION, ENTROPY, ADAPTATION, TIMELINESS, LIMITATIONS, INTERACTIONS, MODELS, GLOBAL, ORGANIZATIONS
Abstract: (U) Three different strategies are identified for organizational adaptation, including dynamic process selection. An executable organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different adaptation strategies on organizational performance. The concept of entropy is used to calculate the total activity value, a surrogate for decision maker workload, based on the functional partition and the adaptation strategy being implemented. The individual decision makers total activity is monitored, as overloaded decision makers constrain organizational performance. A virtual experiment was conducted; organizations implementing local and global adaptation strategies were compared to a control organization with no adaptation. The level of tolerance of the organization, the workload limit based on the concept of the bounded rationality constraint, was used to determined when a decision maker was overloaded: the limiting effect of the workload on performance. The timeliness of the organizations response was used in order to evaluate organizational output as a function of adaptation strategy.
ADA357596
Human Performance in Simulation Workshop
Personal Author(s): Johnson, Edgar; Moses, Frank; Psotka, Joseph
Report Date: Nov 1998
Media Count: 46 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), *WORKSHOPS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, GROUP DYNAMICS, COGNITION, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), INTELLIGENCE(HUMANS)
Abstract: (U) Overview and summaries of presentations at the Human Performance in Simulation Workshop, 30-31 July, 1997.
ADA359570
Three Levels of Diversity: An Examination of the Complex Relationship Between Diversity, Group Cohesiveness, Sexual Harassment, Group Performance, and Time
Personal Author(s): Whaley, Gary L
Report Date: Jan 1998
Media Count: 19 Page(s)
Descriptors: (U) *GROUP DYNAMICS, *CLASSIFICATION, *PERSONNEL, *COHESION, UNITED STATES, ORGANIZATIONS, MODELS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), DEMOGRAPHY, MINORITIES, VARIABLES, WORK, BEHAVIOR, LABOR, WOMEN, HISPANICS, ADDITION
Identifiers: (U) *DIVERSITY
Abstract: (U) This paper puts forth a typology for classifying different types of diversity variables. Using the dimensions of "observability" and "measurability," a four cell classification scheme is created, and three levels of diversity variables are identified: surface, working, and deep level diversity. The author explains the nature of the relationship between the three levels of diversity and posits a general model of organizational behavior including diversity, group cohesiveness, group performance, sexual harassment, and time. Workforce 2000 (Johnston & Packer, 1987) put the spotlight on the changing demographic character of the American workforce. This report popularized the slowly emerging idea that the basic character of the labor pool in the United States is changing from the white male dominated resource that it had always been, to a more feminine and more variegated well spring. It was predicted that by the year 2000 the workforce would be 47 percent women (Johnston & Packer, 1987). Further, it was stated that between 1985 and 2000 non-whites would comprise 29 percent of the net additions to the workforce (Johnston & Packer, 1987). Workforce 2020 (Richard & D'Amico, 1997), the sequel to Workforce 2000, projects the continued diversification of America. The authors report that, according to Census Bureau projections, for year 2020: white non-Hispanics will comprise only 68 percent of the American labor force; Hispanics will increase their representation in the workforce from 9 percent in 1995 to 14 percent in 2020; and, Asians will be the most rapidly growing minority group increasing their representation in the labor force to 6.5 percent in 2020 from 1.6 percent in the 1980s (Richard & D'Amico, 1997).
