Far East D-I title-game berths still up for grabs
Published: October 21, 2012
The following has been updated to correct the second and third tiebreak criteria.
Musings, mutterings and the occasional schmahts as Ornauer slaps his wrists repeatedly, bangs head smartly on the keyboard and pins a reminder to his monitor: “Don’t jump the gun!”
DISCLAIMER: The following is likely to give you a headache, as it did me.
Yes, I did jump the gun Friday in proclaiming that the two berths in the Nov. 17 Far East Division I football championship game had been claimed, when in fact Kadena, Kubasaki and Yokota are all very much alive and each with a very real chance of making it to the title clash.
Yes, Yokota has won three games against no losses vs. D-I opponents and Kubasaki has done the same, while Kadena has won two and lost two. With just two D-I regular-season games left, Yokota at Kubasaki on Saturday and Kadena at Yokota on Nov. 3, it would appear that Kadena’s on the outside looking in.
Or not.
Let’s remember that Yokota’s two wins over Nile C. Kinnick and Kubasaki’s season sweep of Kadena only count as half wins each in DODDS Pacific’s new Far East playoff format. Yokota has also beaten Seoul American, an interdistrict game that counts as a full win, so Yokota is actually 2-0 with two interdistrict full-win games left.
Meanwhile, Kubasaki has beaten Seoul American and Kinnick in addition to its two wins over Kadena, giving the Dragons a 3-0 mark with one interdistrict full-win game left.
The season series sweep by Kubasaki only counts as two half-losses for Kadena. The Panthers still have wins over Kinnick and Seoul American, giving the Panthers a 2-1 mark with one interdistrict full-win game left.
Seoul American doesn’t have an intradistrict partner and plays four games against D-I foes, all outside of district. Since Kadena, Kubasaki, Yokota and Kinnick each play five D-I games, DODDS Pacific had to find a way to equal things with Seoul American; hence, the half-win per intradistrict game provision, giving each D-I team the equivalent of four regular-season games.
For tiebreaker purposes, the first criteria, of course, is how teams fare against each other head-to-head. If the three-way tie scenario occurs, then they go to point differential in games involving just the three teams which are tied.
Thus far, the teams that potentially could finish in a three-way tie haven't played each other yet.
Regarding point differential, each team can carry away from each game a maximum of 20 points. Stated another way, Yokota beat Kinnick 49-20 and 41-0 this season, but for tiebreaker purposes, Yokota earned only 40 points.
Where each team stands at the moment:
-- Yokota's current point-differential total is 60, since it also beat Seoul American 40-0. Yokota controls its own destiny. If the Panthers win out, they host the Nov. 17 D-I title game.
-- Kubasaki has beaten Seoul American 12-6 and Kadena 14-7 and 32-21 for a point-differential total of 24. Kubasaki also controls its own destiny. A win over Yokota and the Dragons host the D-I championship.
-- Kadena beat Seoul American 35-0 and Kinnick 42-0 while losing by a combined 18 points to Kubasaki, so the Panthers’ current point-differential total sits at 22. Kadena does not control its destiny, needing to at least beat Yokota and hope Kubasaki also beats Yokota to avert a tiebreaker scenario it could potentially lose.
Possible scenarios and their results:
-- Yokota beats Kubasaki, Kadena beats Yokota: Each team finishes the regular season with one D-I loss each, sending everybody to the tea leaves, crystal balls, Ouija boards and calculators to total the final point differentials. Again, just the three teams involved in the tie. If that still leaves the three teams tied, then they go to point differential involving all common opponents, to include the eliminated Nile C. Kinnick and Seoul American.
-- Kadena, Kubasaki each beat Yokota: Kubasaki hosts Kadena in an all-Okinawa title game, as Kubasaki finishes with no losses, Kadena one and Yokota two.
-- Kubasaki beats Yokota, Yokota beats Kadena: Kubasaki hosts the championship against Yokota, which beats out Kadena via head-to-head competition.
Got all that? There’ll be a pop quiz in five minutes.
Anybody got an aspirin?
