Charles Kettering, an American engineer, once said: ‘My interest is in the future, because I will spend the rest of my life there’.
NATO Review shares his sentiments. Which is why we have again asked for insights from experts on the year ahead.
But we know that asking for predictions is unfair really. There’s a lot to get wrong.
Charles Kettering, an American engineer, once said: ‘My interest is in the future, because I will spend the rest of my life there’.
NATO Review shares his sentiments. Which is why we have again asked for insights from experts on the year ahead.
But we know that asking for predictions is unfair really. There’s a lot to get wrong.
I remember as a young journalist asking many interviewees what they felt would happen in the future in their area. Some gambled. Some threw their hands up as if to say ‘I have no idea’. And others would helpfully point out to me that they did not have a chrystal ball.
So we won’t focus on where last year’s predictions were off the mark. We’ll just highlight where our contributors managed to get predictions right (or close) in a largely unpredictable year.
Last year, Leo Cendrowicz pointed out that ‘solutions to troublespots like Iran and North Korea seem as elusive as ever’. Plus ça change…Thomas Renard also scored with his prediction that ‘we can be certain that cyber attacks will not stop and their scale and frequency could even increase, with consequences yet to be evaluated."
But nobody – either in our survey or in the rest of the world – predicted major events such as the Arab Spring sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East.
To be fair to last year’s contributors, they were asked to predict what would happen in one of the most unpredictable year in recent history. 2011, as this edition’s photostory illustrates, had a major – and largely unforeseen – incident grab the headlines pretty much every month.
So our thanks to those who have gambled in this year’s edition. And a very happy and healthy new year to them and all of you.
