Expert Picks: Sony Open

Each week during the official PGA Tour season, CBSSports.com's Kyle Porter will give his best shot at pegging the winner and seeing what other golfers will have a good week. The picks are based on a combination of homework, guesswork and just plain instinct.

Want to make your picks? Tweet your Winner, Top 10 finisher and sleeper to @EyeOnGolf

Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv

Where: Sony Open at Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii

Purse: $5.6 million

Defending Champion: Johnson Wagner

FedEx Cup Points: 500

TV Schedule | Field | Course Guide | Previous Champions | World Rankings  

Pick to Win

Matt Kuchar Odds: 16 to 1 World Ranking: 21st One of the best ball strikers on Tour, Kuchar finished well at the Tournament of Champions with a 71 and 69 in his last two rounds. Kuchar finished T5 at this tournament in 2011 and though he hasn't always played that well at this tournament, he's usually sharp at the beginning of the year (five January top 10s in the last three years is pretty incredible). I expect Kuchar to get things going in a big way this weekend after a nice warm-up at Kapalua.

Lock for Top 10 finish

Carl Pettersson Odds: 20 to 1 World Ranking: 32nd He's coming off a great 8th place performance at the Tournament of Champions and he finished T2 at this course last year. He drove the ball really well at Kapalua (34 of 45 fairways hit) and Waialae (where the Sony Open is played) is a course that values fairways hit.

Sleeper

Jerry Kelly Odds: 80 to 1 World Ranking: 254th Kelly led the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and as we noted with Pettersson, that's going to be a, pardon the pun, driving factor in determining a winner this weekend. Plus, Kelly has a history at the Sony Open. He's finished in the top 30 in six of his last seven outings there, highlighted by a third place finish in 2008. The journeyman ended the year hot (T9 and T4 in his last two events) and I expect him to pick up right where he left off.

Bet I Love

Bud Cauley (+800) to finish in the top five World Ranking: 67th Everybody's favorite sleeper, I know, but his rise to prominence is a legitimate thing. He finished T29 here last year and made 11 of his last 12 cuts on Tour last year. An already stellar week for the Crimson Tide of Alabama is about to get a little bit better.

Notable golfer odds
Player	Odds	Player	Odds	Player	Odds	Player	Odds
Dustin Johnson	10-1	Keegan Bradley	16-1	Matt Kuchar	16-1	Webb Simpson	16-1
Carl Pettersson	20-1	Zach Johnson	20-1	Charles Howell III	22-1	Ryan Moore	25-1
Brendon De Jonge	33-1	Jonas Blixt	33-1	K J Choi	33-1	Scott Piercy	33-1
Tim Clark	33-1	Brian Gay	40-1	Bud Cauley	40-1	Kevin Na	40-1
Ryan Palmer	40-1	Vijay Singh	40-1	Chad Campbell	50-1	Davis Love III	50-1
John Huh	50-1	John Senden	50-1	Johnson Wagner	50-1	Luke Guthrie	50-1
Matt Every	50-1	Michael Thompson	50-1	Ben Curtis	66-1	Chris Kirk	66-1
Harris English	66-1	Charlie Wi	80-1	Kevin Stadler	100-1	John Daly	150-1

Prop Bets
Prop	Odds		Porter's Pick
Will Matt Kuchar finish in the top 5?	Yes (+350)	No (-550)	Yes
Will Webb Simpson finish in the top 5?	Yes (+350)	No (-550)	No
Will Dustin Johnson finish in the top 5?	Yes (+230)	No (-325)	Yes
Will Keegan Bradley finish in the top 5?	Yes (+350)	No (-550)	No
Will Carl Pettersson finish in the top 5?	Yes (+450)	No (-750)	Yes
Will Ryan Moore finish in the top 5?	Yes (+600)	No (-1100)	No
Will Bud Cauley finish in the top 5?	Yes (+800)	No (-1800)	Yes
Will Chad Campbell finish in the top 5?	Yes (+1200)	No (-3300)	No