By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 18, 2012
1:45 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 18, Japan time: This should be the last you’ll hear about the Thai God of Rain in this space.
Okinawa took a licking but kept on ticking last night; top winds were 46-mph sustained and 76-mph gusts just before midnight. Some sporadic power outages were reported.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 17, 2012
10:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 17, Japan time: It might seem like much more, but Okinawa remains only in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 and will experience sustained 40-mph winds and 58-mph gusts through the night into tomorrow morning.
The rumor mill is spinning wildly on Facebook that Japanese authorities have declared TCCOR 1-C (caution) off base. A reminder that while the Japanese might issue their own declarations, American personnel are subject to U.S. Forces Japan instructions regarding TCCORs. And we remain in TCCOR 3 as of this evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 16, 2012
10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 16, Japan time: The Thai God of Rain, Prapiroon, was downgraded to a mere tropical storm Tuesday, never coming close to its peak forecast 115-mph gusts that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted in the storm’s infancy.
Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for 30-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts with rainshowers Wednesday morning, increasing to 40-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts in the afternoon and night into Thursday morning, before dropping off into the weekend.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 15, 2012
8 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 16, Japan time: As a precaution, Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early this morning, though peak winds are still forecast to be no stronger than 46 mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at 5 p.m. Wednesday. Okinawa should experience sustained 40-mph winds from 11 a.m. Tuesday to 3 a.m. Wednesday, if Prapiroon stays on its current forecast track. The operative word being “if.”
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 15, 2012
6:45 p.m. Monday, Oct. 15, Japan time: An old 1970s and 80s rocker like myself would say that Typhoon Prapiroon is channeling its inner Foghat, for the album Zig-Zag Walk, recorded in 1982. Most of the young crowd today would prefer the Cupid Shuffle, for Prapiroon seems as if it can’t make up its mind; or, to borrow a line from my blogging idol Stormy, whether it wants to go to the left-left-left or to the right-right-right.
Regardless, what a weird storm! After creepy-crawling northeast for the better part of the weekend, the Thai God of Rain reversed course southwest early Monday, then turned southeast and is quasi-stationary at this writing. Forecasts call for Prapiroon to pick up forward speed northeast and batter Okinawa with sustained 40-mph winds between 5 and 9 a.m. Wednesday. Peak sustained winds of 46 mph and 63-mph gusts are forecast for 8 a.m. Wednesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 14, 2012
10:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 14, Japan time: Here is the forecast wind timeline for Okinawa for Typhoon Prapiroon. Damaging sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 3 a.m. Wednesday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, 5 a.m. Wednesday.
-- Maximum sustained 46-mph winds, 63-mph gusts, 4 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 a.m. Thursday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 8 a.m. Thursday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 14, 2012
6:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 14, Japan time: Well, it was wishful thinking, I guess. Typhoon Prapiroon, though not nearly as big and beastly as Jelawat or Bolaven, apparently will hang close enough to Okinawa to make for a gusty, rainy Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight extended forecast calls for windy, rainy conditions all week, but Wednesday will bring 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 40-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts come afternoon and evening. The Thai God of Rain is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to rumble about 190 miles east-southeast of Okinawa around 8 p.m. Wednesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 13, 2012
12:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 14, Japan time: Nuisance or not?
Typhoon Prapiroon, though not expected to make a direct hit on Okinawa, is still hanging close enough east to be a major pain in the keister, sustained winds in the 30- to 35-mph range and gusts up to 45 and 50 mph forecast for the next few days.
It’s then projected to accelerate rapidly northeast, remaining a good 200 miles offshore southeast of the Kanto Plain but still maintaining severe tropical-cyclone strength. Mid-morning Friday should be a gusty, wet one, with sustained 20- to 25-mph winds and 35- to 40-mph gusts off of Yokosuka, less severe inland.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 12, 2012
8 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 13, Japan time: Looks as if Okinawa is out of the woods regarding Typhoon Prapiroon, which appears to have peaked in intensity at 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at its center, with closest point of approach 340 miles east of Okinawa at 3 a.m. Tuesday.
Tokyo looks as if Prapiroon might throw a calling card its way early Thursday morning, well off the coast of Honshu (178 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 3 a.m.), but still maintaining typhoon strength, making for a gusty, rainy early morning. We’ll keep a sharp lookout.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 12, 2012
3:45 p.m. Friday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Typhoon Prapiroon is still a fairly good distance from Okinawa and should remain so for the next several days, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts. Closest point of approach at this time is 337 miles east at 5 a.m. Wednesday as it rumbles north. And it’s forecast to lose strength as it pushes north into cooler sea-surface temperatures and vertical wind shear.
But Prapiroon, which is Thai for god of rain, is close enough to be of concern because the forecast models are far from agreeing on which way it will go from there. At least one model suggests Prapiroon will curve west closer to Okinawa; others are predicting a more north to northeasterly route.
Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight five-day forecast calls for sustained winds between 14 and 23 mph and gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Enough of a concern that the Marine Corps has called off its planned Foster Festival this weekend; no makeup date has been announced.
PST will keep a sharp eyeball on it.
