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NCJ Number:
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NCJ 198829
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Title:
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Estimating Drug Use Prevalence Among Arrestees Using ADAM Data: An Application of a Logistic Regression Synthetic Estimation Procedure
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Series:
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NIJ Research Report
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Author(s):
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Mary-Lynn Brecht ; M. Douglas Anglin ; Tzu-Hui Lu
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Corporate Author:
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UCLA Integrated Substance Abuse Programs
United States
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Date Published:
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1/2003 |
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Page Count:
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98 |
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Sponsoring Agency:
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Grant Number:
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2000-IJ-CX-0017 |
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Sale Source:
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NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States
UCLA Integrated Substance Abuse Programs
1640 South Sepulveda Boulevard
Suite 200
Los Angeles, CA 90025
United States |
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Document:
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PDF |
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Agency Summary:
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Agency Summary |
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Type:
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Studies/research reports |
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Language:
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English |
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Country:
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United States |
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Annotation:
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This study applied a logistic regression synthetic estimation
approach to estimate the prevalence of illicit drug-using
arrestees, using available ADAM (Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring)
data for calendar year 2000 as a calibration sample for
projecting to the national level. |
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Abstract:
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Prevalence estimates were made for any illicit drug use (any of
10 drugs tested by urinalysis) and specifically for cocaine. Drug
use was estimated by gender, age group, and offense category.
Estimation was performed for State and county data (California
and its largest and smallest counties, Los Angeles and Alpine) to
determine any illicit drug use by arrestees. The logistic
regression synthetic estimation approach used in this study
involved the application of the prevalence rates in a calibration
sample (ADAM) to estimate the equivalent rates in a target
population (national, State, or county) where the prevalence
rates were unknown. This approach has the benefits of being low
cost, relatively simple to understand and implement, and its use
of existing available data. This method yielded an estimated
number of U.S. arrestees with recent illicit drug use at 6.4
million, or approximately 65 percent of the arrestee population.
Estimates were higher for males (4.8 million) than for females
(1.5 million), which is approximately in the same ratio as
arrests for males and females. For cocaine, the overall U.S.
estimate of arrestees using it was 3.8 million (2.7 million males
and 1.0 million females). The estimate for California drug-using
arrestees was 780,000, approximately 61 percent of the arrestee
population. An evaluation of the methodology affirmed the
acceptability of most results regarding reasonability,
replicability, and reliability; however, the method did not
perform as well as anticipated in the estimation of opiate and
methamphetamine prevalence; and results for some small subgroups
were less reliable than desired. An assessment of potential
estimate bias suggested that estimates were most likely
conservative. The study recommends the continued application and
refinement of this ADAM-based method for estimating the
prevalence of drug use by arrestees. 8 tables, 6 figures, 52
references, and appended supplementary information on methodology
and data |
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Main Term(s):
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Estimating methods |
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Index Term(s):
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Drug abuse ; Estimated crime incidence ; Estimates ; Drug offenders ; NIJ final report |
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Note:
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Dataset may be archived by the NIJ Data Resources Program at the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data |
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To cite this abstract, use the following link:
https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=198829
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* A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents
not available online, a link to the publisher's web site is provided.
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