By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
All clear sounded at 3:30 a.m. for all U.S. bases in Kanto Plain. PST signing off for now.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
9:50 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Kanto Plain bases now in TCCOR 1-E (emergency). Sustained 58-mph winds or greater now occurring. ALL outside activity prohibited.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
8 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: TCCOR 1-C (caution) declared for all U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain. Non-essential travel suspended. Non-essential personnel stay indoors. Monitor official sources for TCCOR changes.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
5:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Jelawat was downgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in its 40th warning on the storm, marking Jelawat’s 10-day birthday.
Jelawat still is prowling offshore south of Honshu, but is expected to make landfall near Nagoya later this evening, then begin to shear apart as it interacts with land.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
3 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Okinawa resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Hazardous conditions and winds no longer present; return to normal duties.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 30, 2012
1:45 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Jelawat has remained a strong Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts as it moves northeast like a rocket sled on rails at 30 mph toward landfall just west of Hamamatsu later this afternoon.
All U.S. Kanto Plain bases are now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Camp Fuji should see the worst of it, a near-direct hit at around 7 p.m. The remaining Kanto bases should be slightly southeast of Jelawat’s trajectory, but forecasts at Yokosuka Naval Base still call for 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 60-mph gusts tonight into early Monday morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 29, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch declared for Okinawa. Storm moving away from island but still being watched in case destructive winds return.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 29, 2012
12:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Now that Okinawa’s finished getting ravaged by its worst tropical cyclone since Man-yi on July 13, 2007, the Kanto Plain is bracing to be Typhoon Jelawat’s next visitor. All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2; that will change later this morning.
It won’t be a typhoon by the time it reaches U.S. bases in the Kanto, but Jelawat will still be a significant tropical storm as it roars through the area.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 29, 2012
9:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) at 8 p.m., and it appears as if it will stay that way until at least tomorrow morning due to the amount of damage sustained on base.
According to an 18th Wing public affairs office message on its Facebook page, there is much debris, downed power lines and even vehicles flipped on the roads and in parking lots.
Be sensible and don’t go outside. Security Forces will be checking for recovery team passes. If you must go outside, do so carefully and only around your house. Stay off the roads until TCCOR Storm Watch is declared.
Recovery teams will focus on securing dangerous conditions, including downed power lines; getting power restored on base; cleaning up debris from roads and paths; and recovering aircraft to meet operational requirements.
The 18th Wing command asks everyone’s patience during recovery operations to ensure we all get back to normal safely.
Okinawa’s most severe winds were 87-mph sustained and 137-mph gusts at 1:23 p.m. Saturday.
Jelawat has now begun its express bee-line run toward the Kanto Plain. Landfall is expected sometime early Sunday evening over Hamamatsu in central Honshu, with a near-direct pass over Yokota forecast for around 10 p.m. Winds should still be somewhat hairy, 58-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at Yokota, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camps Fuji and Zama. Yokosuka Naval Base forecasts 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 55-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 29, 2012
3:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Wow. To say this storm is fierce doesn’t begin to describe it. The PHOTOS from around the island on Facebook and other venues are just eye-popping. Cars blown over onto their sides or tops. Tree limbs and power lines blown over, satellite dishes bent into the shape of tacos. Nasty stuff, to say the least. Kadena Air Base reported the most fierce winds at 74 mph sustained with 111-mph gusts, though it sure felt worse in some areas. Jelawat passed 9 miles north of Kadena at 11:08 a.m.
The good news, the worst should soon be over for the folks on Okinawa, and Jelawat should next begin an express beeline journey toward the Kanto Plain. Fleet Activities Yokosuka plans to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 4 p.m. and other U.S. bases will likely do the same in advance of the storm. Jelawat should pass northwest of those bases around mid-evening Sunday, packing sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts, just below typhoon strength but still pretty powerful.
On Okinawa, expect winds to diminish below 58 mph around 5 p.m., below 40 mph around 9 p.m. and below 40 mph around 3 a.m.
Especially with the damage we’ve seen in photos and video, do NOT venture outside during TCCOR 1-R (recovery). Assessment teams will be out surveying the damage and repair crews will be carting off debris and putting things back in place for awhile. Wait for Storm Watch to be issued before heading anywhere. Be smart and be safe!
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
10:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Very shortly, the area where you stand on Okinawa could experience an unexpected calm period as the eye of Typhoon Jelawat passes over the island. No rain, no wind, unexpected sunshine and clear skies, although the ears may feel the same effect as if you were sent airborne 39,000 feet aboard an airliner. Resist all temptation to venture outside. You may feel as safe as in your mother’s arms, but at any instant, the rain and fierce winds could whip up again, worse than before and in the opposite direction. Be smart. Be safe.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
9:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Whoo-wee, it’s getting BAD out there, gang. Already, we’re hearing of widespread power outages, debris being blown hither and thither as if carried away in a riptide. Gad, I sure hope everybody’s playing it safe and cuddling close indoors away from that mess.
We’re not in three-figure winds (yet), though Kadena Air Base has already reported 58-mph sustained winds with 75-mph gusts. Max felt on the island, 98-mph gusts down south where Typhoon Jelawat is unleashing its beastly fury. The worst is yet to come, I’m afraid.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) declared for Okinawa. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. All outside activity prohibited.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) declared for Okinawa. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 12 hours. Actual winds are between 40 and 56 mph.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
2:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Any time now, Okinawa should start feeling the full fury of Typhoon Jelawat as it makes that dogleg right toward the island, with the closest point of approach 9 miles north of Kadena Air Base around 2 p.m. Saturday. While Jelawat is gradually losing strength, the island is still bracing for sustained 115-mph winds and 138-mph gusts around mid-day, then Jelawat will pick up forward speed and high-tail it out of the area in relatively short order.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) very soon, followed by TCCOR 1-E (emergency) sometime after sunrise. Once the latter occurs, stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch is declared.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: The winds won’t be quite as fierce as my last missive indicated, but these are still deadly serious Category 2-equivalent winds, 121-mph sustained and 138-mph gusts forecast for mid-morning Saturday. Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to make a near-direct hit on Kadena Air Base, 7 miles north at 2 p.m., and roll through the area rather quickly. Time for preparation is over. Okinawa is now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect quick upgrades to that as the night progresses.
Latest forecast wind timeline as provided by Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 28, 2012
3 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: The news gets worse with every passing update. Now, Okinawa is facing a battle with 132-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts, however briefly, around 2 p.m. Saturday. Jelawat is a “no-kidding” beast that should not be taken lightly.
By now, everybody in Okinawa should have completed final preparation for this storm. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2; that will likely change early Saturday evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
11:15 a.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: After four days as a super-duper typhoon, Jelawat finally gave up the battle and was downgraded to regular ol’ typhoon status by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in its latest advisory. Still, Jelawat apparently means business and will remain stronger than earlier forecast for both Okinawa and Kanto.
We’re looking at 126-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts around mid-afternoon Saturday for Okinawa. Whoo-wee, now that’s serious business. Worse than Sanba. Worse than Bolaven.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 has been declared for Okinawa. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.
By Joe Gromelski
Published: September 27, 2012
12:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight demonstrates a nasty Saturday and even early Sunday in store for Okinawa. The island remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for now; expect that to change by early morning. Yokosuka Naval Base is in TCCOR 4 and Sasebo Naval Base in TCCOR Storm Watch.
Okinawa’s latest forecast wind timeline:
- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, 6 p.m. Friday.
- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, 9 p.m. Friday.
- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.
- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 138-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 9 p.m. Saturday.
- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, noon Sunday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
Sasebo Naval Base has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch and Yokosuka Naval Base entered TCCOR 4 in advance of Super Typhoon Jelawat. Okinawa remains in TCCOR 3; that will likely change by early morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Ol’ Jelawat looks like it plans to remain a pesky little bugger as snakes its way east toward Okinawa after paying a brief visit to the Taiwan area. Things should get a bit hairy starting Saturday morning. Jelawat is forecast to roar just south of Kadena around 3 p.m. Saturday, with peak winds, 98-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts, forecast for mid-afternoon and things dying down sometime Saturday evening, forecasts project.
And Jelawat won’t stop there. Even as it loses its powerful punch while making a northeast beeline toward central Honshu, Jelawat is expected to continue packing severe tropical storm-strength winds, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts as it comes ashore over Hamanatsu long about mid-morning Monday. Might not be that mighty as it rumbles inland some 34 miles northwest of Yokota and 65 miles north of Yokosuka around mid-afternoon, but it should still be a wet, windy day in the Tokyo area.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to enter TCCOR 4 sometime Friday, if nothing else as a precaution.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 10 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, midnight Friday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 98-mph sustained winds, 132-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.
Ever the securocrat, Pacific Storm Tracker bids you to always err on the side of caution, or as the theme song of the old Mel Brooks comedy The Producers suggests: “Hope for the best, expect the worst.” Especially for those new to the island, never treat these things lightly, for if you do, Mr. Murphy of Murphy’s Law fame is likely to pitch tent in the living room of the house ill-prepared for a storm. Better to have too much and not need it than to have not enough and need it desperately.
You have about one more day to ensure the trampoline is taken down, the garbage and recycle bins, bicycles and barbeque grills are stowed or tied down, anything that can be taken airborne and become a dangerous projectile. Those heavy butane containers that seemingly need 10 people to lift? They can be buffeted all around a patio or backyard, believe it or not. Any gusts or winds above 58 mph are “no-kidding” stuff that needs to be taken very seriously.
If you’ve not done so already, make that run to the commissary and PX. Flashlights, a portable radio and batteries to run them, enough bottled water, non-perishable food, diapers and sanitizer, food for your furry friends to last three days at least; power can be off for quite a while during these things. Also, visit your ATM and get enough local currency and dollars to last the same period, and make sure to visit the gasoline stand and fill up the tank.
Be safe out there, guys and dolls.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
4 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 was declared at 3:15 p.m. Thursday for Okinawa. Winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
1 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Hmm … Make that a Category 2-equivalent pass through Okinawa, apparently.
Super Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to weaken as it approaches Okinawa, but not as quickly as originally forecast. Still, Jelawat should pick up forward speed and rapidly charge through the area on its beeline course for mid-Honshu. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts have Jelawat roaring 11 miles south of Kadena Air Base around 3 p.m. Saturday, with maximum 86 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts forecast for early afternoon. We’re still looking at between 6 to 8 inches of rain starting at noon Friday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 26, 2012
9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat won’t be the powerful beast it is now, but should still take a pretty solid 2-by-4 to Okinawa as it rolls 12 miles south of the island about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing a Category 1-equivalent punch of 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.
It looks as if Jelawat will weaken rapidly as it plunges northeast and crashes ashore near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast around 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Those should diminish as Jelawat interacts with mountains and strong vertical wind shear; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain should feel some serious gusts and experience some rainshowers into Monday evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 26, 2012
3 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat continues on a path that is forecast to take it 35 miles east-southeast of Okinawa at midnight Saturday, though it is projected to diminish into a severe Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it roars over us, with maximum 80-mph winds and 104-mph gusts forecast for just before midnight. Rain associated with Jelawat should start falling around noon Friday; 6 to 8 inches are forecast.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 25, 2012
9 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: We should be getting used to this, having done this enough times over the summer, so start planning that visit to the commissary and PX to ensure your flashlight and portable radio has enough battery power, grab enough water, non-perishable food, diapers and food for your furry friends to last at least three days. Also, to visit the ATM and gas up the car. Should be entirely routine by now.
Here’s the forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Super Typhoon Jelawat should be gradually losing strength as it roars 20 miles east of Okinawa at 2 a.m. Sunday, but it will still pack a powerful Category 2-equivalent punch, maximum 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts around 10 p.m. Saturday:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 25, 2012
6:45 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Looks as if Jelawat should retain its super-duper typhoon status for the next day, then gradually start weakening as it churns north-northwest into (somewhat) cooler latitudes, wind shear increases and sea-surface temperatures decrease. Jelawat is forecast to do a hard right face around 3 p.m. Friday, then begin trekking toward Okinawa and closest-point-of-approach some 10 miles west of Kadena Air Base around 10 p.m. Saturday, as forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Jelawat is forecast to move rapidly through the Okinawa area, but not after battering the island with Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 24, 2012
Noon Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Super now, not-so-super later.
Forecast models are slowly coming into agreement that Super Typhoon Jelawat will curve toward Okinawa after making a brief visit to Taiwan. The question being, how soon that curve will be and how powerful Jelawat will remain. It’s still a good five days away and the specifics are far from clear.
By Joe Gromelski
Published: September 24, 2012
11:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Make up your mind, a’ready!
Jelawat re-strengthened into a super typhoon on Monday evening, and the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center projection forecasts Jelawat to make a sharp right turn overnight Friday into Saturday and set its sights right on Okinawa, to the tune of 161 miles southwest of the island at 9 p.m. Saturday but making a beeline toward it. As my idol Capt. “Stormy” Weathers at Fleet Activities Okinawa would say, “Typhoon Bouncy House” or “Typhoon Doughnuts,” etc.
Jelawat is forecast to peak in intensity at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts as it creeps slowly northward , the center east of the Philippines but the western quadrants really letting that island group have it.
As it approaches Okinawa, Jelawat will still be a powerful Category 2-equivalent storm, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at 9 p.m. Saturday.
Yep, another weekend. Yep, another storm taking virtually the same routes as Bolaven and Sanba did. We probably won’t see accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness for another three days or so, but no time like now to restock the cabinets that got emptied during Sanba
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 24, 2012
9 p.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Well, Jelawat’s status as a super-duper typhoon didn’t last long. Joint Typhoon Warning Center downgraded it to a regular ol’ run-of-the-mill typhoon with its 6 p.m. (local time) update.
But don’t relax yet, folks. This thing is still a powerful storm whose western quadrants are pummeling the Philippines at the moment. Jelawat is forecast to remain a strong Category 3-equivalent storm, curving northwest toward Taiwan later in the week, then curving north-northeast.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 23, 2012
10 a.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Jelawat was upgraded Monday morning to super-typhoon status and has begun a slow, ponderous journey north.
It’s forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts overnight Monday. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Jelawat cruising directly over Ishigaki at 3 a.m. Saturday, still packing a powerful punch, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts as it curves toward Okinawa.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 23, 2012
6 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Say it ain’t so. Please.
With every passing Joint Typhoon Warning Center six-hour update comes more evidence that Typhoon Jelawat might be an unwelcome visit to the Okinawa area sometime during the weekend, though the various computer-generated dynamic aids used to formulate storm tracks still are spread all over the yard – a spread of nearly 1,000 miles, the JTWC reports.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 23, 2012
3 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Jelawat was upgraded to typhoon status overnight Saturday into Sunday, and there’s been a big change in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track. Initially forecast to roll between Luzon and Taiwan, that track has varied by about 300 miles east, with Jelawat now forecast to rumble between Taiwan and Okinawa, 325 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base around 9 a.m. Friday. Computer models are still all over the lot, even though Jelawat is now three days old. Jelawat is forecast to start curving north sometime Sunday; the question being how pronounced that curve will be. PST is keeping a sharp eye on it.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 20, 2012
9 a.m. Friday, Sept. 21, Japan time: PST is keeping an eyeball on a new disturbance that mushroomed overnight into Tropical Storm Jelawat. It's currently moving toward the Philippines, but is forecast to stall, then head northwest over the next few days. Where it heads beyond the 25th is uncertain; some forecast models have it cnntinuing northwest, others have it curving more northeast, possibly toward Okinawa by the 26th or 27th, one forecaster says. PST has it in its sights.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 17, 2012
4:45 p.m., Monday, Sept. 17, Korea time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its final warning for now-downgraded Tropical Storm Sanba at 6 p.m. Officials in Area IV have said they are resetting everything. Roads now are open and the all-clear was sounded at 5 p.m.
By the numbers for Okinawa and Daegu:
-- 48,700 homes lost power through the storm's peak, 6 a.m. Sunday, when peak 69-mph sustained winds and 123-mph gusts occurred. Not as bad as PST advertised last week, but still quite trifling.
-- All told, 7 inches of rain fell on Okinawa, 18th Wing Weather Flight officials said.
-- All-Nippon Airways lost 56 flights affecting 9,500 passengers. Japan Air Lines had 34 flights canceled, stranding 8,520 passengers. Japan Transocean Air had 76 flights by the boards, with 8,157 passengers affected. Sky Mark lost 53 flights, delaying 6,800 passengers. Solaseed Air lost 10 flights, with 1,700 passengers affected.
-- Two were slightly injured in the Nago-Ginoza area near Camp Schwab. More than 370 homes were flooded, most in the north part of the island, according to Okinawa's crisis management office.
-- Okuma Recreation Area will not open nor accept reservations until Thursday due to typhoon damage.
-- Public affairs officials said 7 inches of rain fell in Daegu-Area IV.
Pacific Storm Tracker signing off ... for now.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 16, 2012
Sasebo Naval Base just sounded the all-clear at 11 a.m.; Typhoon Sanba leaving the area.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 16, 2012
10 a.m. Monday, Sept. 17, Japan/Korea time: It’s happening now, gang. Sasebo Naval Base is in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C, and should remain that way until noon as Typhoon Sanba rapidly Sambas its way north to Korea. Winds between 58 and 68 mph are occurring at Sasebo, but are forecast to decrease rapidly later into the day.
Area IV installations in Korea are in TCCOR 1. Only mission-essential folks with an authorization from an O-6 and above permitted to move about. Road condition Black. Schools, exchange, commissary, MWR and virtually all garrison offices are closed. Dining facilities are open, however.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 16, 2012
7:10 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: It's all over for Okinawa. U.S. bases on island resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 7:04 p.m.
Osan Air Base's 51st Fighter Wing command has directed that only mission-essential personnel report to work Monday. DODDS schools will be closed and the POW-MIA ceremony has been canceled. Personnel are required to stay in their homes Monday unless otherwise directed.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
4:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch has been set for Okinawa. Storm's moving away, but still feeling effects. They're keeping an eyeball on Typhoon Sanba, in the unlikely event it decides to Samba back our way. Normal operations to resume shortly.
Sasebo Naval Base set TCCOR 1 at 10 a.m. Local forecast call for 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 55-mph gusts Monday morning.
Area IV installations in Daegu are now in TCCOR 2. TCCOR 1 to be set this evening.
Daegu High, Daegu American, C. Turner Joy, Darby Elementary and E.J. King Schools are closed Monday due to Typhoon Sanba, DODDS Pacific officials announced Sunday. More closures, if needed, will be announced later.
Area IV/Daegu still expecting 69-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts on Monday. Keep tuned to USAG Daegu's Facebook page for facilities closure announcements.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
7:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: We're now getting battered by the back side of Typhoon Sanba. Winds have shifted completely around from the north and northwest to west and southwest. Peak winds were felt at 6 a.m. at Kadena, 62-mph sustained winds and 106-mph gusts. That's bled off some, to 56 and 74, far from what forecasts predicted, but still qulte trifling. Be careful. Stay inside until Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch is declared, sometime this afternoon.
Latest forecast wind timeline
-- Maximum 69-mph sustained winds, 123-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, noon Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 2 and is still forecast to experience south-southwesterly 60-mph gusts Sunday evening into Monday.
Korea, specifically Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu are still in for a bit of a pounding as Sanba is forecast to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes landfall on Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday. It should keep its intensity, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it crosses the peninsula and exits near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) early Monday evening. West Coast bases should feel some of Sanba's effects as well.
5:20 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) at 5:11 a.m. No outside activity allowed. Stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
1:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Latest forecast wind timeliine from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Expect upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E around 2 a.m. or thereabouts, depending on wind speeds. Closest point of approach 14 miles east at 6 a.m.
-- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, occurring now.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, occuring now.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, occuring now.
-- Maximum 127-mph sustained winds, 155-mph gusts, 4 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 2 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
12:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: It’s happening, folks. OK, doubters and naysayers on Okinawa, it’s probably not going to be as bad as Bart was 13 years ago. Touche. Typhoon Sanba will still pack Category 3-equivalent winds of 127 mph and gusts up to 155 as it crosses Okinawa later this morning. The island remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C early Sunday; expect an upgrade around 2 a.m. or thereabouts.
The eye is about 35 miles across and the storm is moving at about 14 mph. So parts of Okinawa might experience an unwarranted calm just before dawn. I say again: Avoid the temptation to go outside. You never know when the winds will kick back up again.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
11:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 11:30 p.m. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.
10:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 10:21 p.m. Winds of 44 mph and 58-mph gusts are occurring. Stay tuned for upgrade to 1E.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
8 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: OK, now we’re at Sanba’s mercy. No scientific formula to determine EXACTLY when we move off of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 into 1-C or 1-E. It all depends on how soon we experience SUSTAINED 40-mph winds (1-C) and 58-mph winds (1-E).
That said, Kadena remains in TCCOR 1, while Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and all Area IV installations in Daegu, Chinhae and Pusan, South Korea, remain in TCCOR 3. Expect those to change in very short order as Sanba Sambas further north.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
3:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base and all Area IV installations in the Daegu area of South Korea accelerated into Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early Saturday afternoon.
Though Typhoon Sanba is forecast to roar 110 miles west of Sasebo around 7 a.m. Sunday, officials posted TCCOR 3 as a precaution. The base is forecasting maximum winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 overnight Sunday into Monday, with showers and thunderstorms throughout the period.
Facilities closures at Camps George, Henry and Walker and K-2 Air Base will be determined Sunday, public affairs officials announced on the USAG Daegu Facebook page.
U.S. Army Garrison Yongsan’s official Facebook page warns residents in Korea to expect as much as 7 inches of rain and sustained 45-mph winds and 60-mph gusts after Sanba makes landfall around mid-morning Monday, still packing significant winds at its center, 86-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts.
Chinhae Naval Base and Pusan should feel the worst of it, with Daegu next, almost directly in Sanba’s path. Sanba should rumble 30 miles west of Chinhae and 57 miles west of Pusan around noon to 1 p.m., 21 miles west of Daegu at 3 p.m., 85 miles east of Kunsan Air Base at 2 p.m., 82 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys at 5 p.m. and 85 miles east of Yongsan and Camp Red Cloud between 6 and 7 p.m.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
10:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Okinawa has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive 58-mph winds or greater anticipated within 12 hours.
The magic hour when flights into and out of Naha International Airport are concerned seems to be 2 p.m. All flights serving Naha through the airports curfew have been canceled.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
9:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sanba was downgraded to regular ol’ typhoon status overnight Friday, but it remains a dangerous Category 4-equivalent storm as it bears down on Okinawa. The island remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 early Saturday morning; TCCORs are expected to change rapidly as Sanba rumbles northwest toward closest point of approach, forecast to be 16 miles east of Kadena Air Base at 4 a.m. Sunday. It will still be packing sustained 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.
Latest forecast wind timeline courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
Midnight Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 was declared for Okinawa at midnight Friday.
After rapidly intensifying by 60 knots overnight Thursday to a peak of 155 knots Friday – the strongest I’ve ever witnessed in nearly 10 years of doing this – Super Typhoon Sanba’s intensity has diminished by 20 knots in the last 12 hours as it trudges north at about 13 mph.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Very, very heartening to see people bustling hither and thither through the Foster commissary this afternoon. Took an hour for me to get what little needed to be done for the office, but I’ll venture to say the commissaries and PXs all around island made a KILLING on this day. And more shopping will likely be done Saturday in the storm’s run-up by those who haven’t done so (and why, oh, why have you not done so yet?).
Seriously, the time for preparation is running out remorselessly, like sands through the hourglass. We’re already seeing/feeling Super Typhoon Sanba’s most outer bands. If it’s sitting outside the garage, put it inside. If the garage door is still open, shut it. If the trampoline is still up, take it down. If the grill and butane can are still outside, wheel them in. If your satellite dish is grievously exposed to the fiercest winds, you might want to consider taking it down. And if your car windows are open, by all means shut them (you’d be surprised how many folks leave their car windows open during a typhoon).
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
12:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: The bad news: I have never, in all my years of following tropical cyclones, seen a storm this intense here in the Pacific. Super Typhoon Sanba is peaking in intensity at 155 knots, or 178.25 mph, today along with gusts near 220 mph (!!!) – a Category 5-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – and will remain close to that for next day or so.
The really bad news: We’re looking at a direct or almost-direct hit on the south part of Okinawa come early Sunday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Sanba roaring 8 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 6 a.m. Sunday, at which point it will have weakened slightly but should still be packing Category 4-equivalent 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at its center. The next Bart, perhaps.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
Okinawa enters Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 1:13 a.m. Japan time.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
11:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Sanba was upgraded to super-typhoon status late Thursday evening by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s winds are now 155-mph sustained with 190-mph gusts at its center, and it’s still forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained and 198-mph gusts as it rumbles north. Worse, Sanba is now moving straight north and its forecast track now brings it 37 miles west of Okinawa at 9 a.m. Sunday. Updated forecast wind timeline when it becomes available.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
10:15 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Oooh, baby, this storm is becoming a whopper, to borrow a 1930s expression. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Sanba to become a super typhoon early Friday, and expects it to top out at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts later in the day.
Sanba’s winds should then recede some as it approaches Okinawa. It’s forecast to roar 53 miles southwest of the island at 10 a.m. Sunday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Wind parameters pretty much remain the same, except for adjustments of an hour or two here and there in the forecast wind timeline. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at the moment; expect that to change Friday morning. Sanba forecast to rumble 40 miles west of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday.
As I suspected, the Yokota at Kubasaki and Kadena at Daegu High football games have been wiped off the boards as a result of Sanba’s approach. Oh, they’d be able to play the games, yes; the teams just couldn’t fly home on Sunday when the weather is forecast to be at its peak. DODDS Pacific doth not like student-athletes to miss class because they’re stranded somewhere by bad weather. Safety and academics are top priorities.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
9:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Can’t emphasize enough; this could be “the one.” The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has Sanba roaring 40 miles southwest of Okinawa at 2 p.m. Sunday, packing Category 4-equivalent winds at its center and exposing Okinawa to its east quadrants.
Those are typically the worst quadrants because they carry with them all the nastiness that Sanba will have sopped up from warmer, southern ocean waters. Worse, Sanba’s forward motion appears to have slowed, giving it more time to nourish itself with tropical moisture.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
Shirt tailing onto previous question-and-answer blog posts, here are a few questions that crossed my desk in the last day or so, and what to do to ensure these matters are taken care of:
Q) Dave, we have such a bunch of worry warts on this island. Everybody made such a big deal out of Typhoon Bolaven last month, and it turned out to be next to nothing. Now, all I’m hearing is about how Typhoon Sanba will be “the big one.” I tire of the exaggerating because none of these storms ever turn out to be as bad as everybody says. What’s up with that?
A) Sort of like the lesson we learned from the “Boy Who Cried Wolf” children’s tale. Never, ever, ever take that attitude. All it takes is one typhoon to be “the one,” just as when the boy cried, "Wolf! A wolf, indeed!" All it takes if for you to let your guard down when “the one” hits. And you end up being sorry because you took the storm too lightly; thus, you didn’t prepare properly. You didn’t stock up on water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a portable radio and batteries, diapers and sanitizer for the little one and pet food for your furry friends, didn’t go to the ATM, didn’t gas up; all the little things that ensure you’re prepared, even if all you get is banana winds. Murphy’s Law loves to pitch tent right in the middle of the home that didn’t prepare for the storm. Don’t let that home be yours. You never know when the next one will resemble Typhoon Bart, which tore apart the island over a two-day span in September 1999.
Q) Dave, we at the 18th Wing Weather Flight have fielded tons of phone calls about the Air Force Ball on Saturday. One of our techs received no fewer than 30 calls, mostly about the reschedule date, even little things like fingernails, lipstick and hair. Please get the word out to people to not phone the weather flight for non-operational questions.
A) You heard them. The folks at the Weather Flight are busy doing everything from updating their web products, storm bulletins, wind timelines and the five-day forecast to briefing the 18th Wing commanding officer on tropical cyclone condition of readiness upgrade recommendations, when the wing should start tying down or evacuating aircraft to safe-haven destinations. As for the Air Force Ball, somehow, I doubt the Weather Flight would have much information about it. No makeup date has been announced, as far as I know; heck, it hasn’t been canceled yet, as far as I know.
Q) Dave, during the last typhoon, I gazed out the window after TCCOR 1-E had been declared and I saw that the neighbor next door had not put away his children’s toys and bicycles. He even left the trampoline outside. I heard word that another trampoline was sent airborne on one base, and it lodged into power pole and caused the electricity to go out. What’s up with that?
A) You might risk being viewed as a busybody (or as my Yiddish-fluent grandmother used to say, “Yente”) by the neighbor, but it’s always prudent to remind them – and make sure you do this in advance of the storm – that even the most innocuous, small objects can become dangerous projectiles in winds of 58 mph or greater. Because of a trampoline’s construction, in the right set of wind circumstances, yes, it can be propelled through the air, parachute-like, and break house or car windows and yes, even fly high enough to sever power lines or damage transformers. At Category 4-equivalent wind speeds, even pieces of paper or cardboard can be dangerous.
Q) Dave, I’m an expectant mother in her 37th week. When should pregnant women head to the hospital and how long should they be prepared to stay?
A) According to U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa officials, women in their 37th week may report to the hospital at or prior to declaration of TCCOR 1-C (caution); at that point, most outdoor activity begins to shut down and everybody heads inside to hunker down. Bring a change of clothing and a toothbrush, and be prepared to stay until TCCOR SW (Storm Watch) is declared.
Q) Dave, what happens if the Yokota at Kubasaki football game Saturday can't be played? That one counts toward Division I title-game berths. Not to mention, it's between the teams that played for the title last year. Both teams don't have a corresponding bye week the rest of the season.
A) According to DODDS Pacific Far East athletics coordinator Don Hobbs, a decision on the fate of that game, plus the Kadena at Daegu High game, will be made sometime Thursday afternoon. As the weather stands now, it looks as if the games themselves could be played, but neither Kadena nor Yokota could fly back home on Sunday. It's DODDS Pacific's policy to ensure that students who travel to a DODDS-sponsored athletic event miss as little school as possible in the process.
Got any typhoon-related questions? Feel free to post them in the comments section, or write me at ornauerd@pstripes.osd.mil.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 10, 2012
6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Just two days into its existence, Sanba has already been upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status, and continues its rapid intensification. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Sanba to roar 42 miles southwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. This thing is NO JOKE, people. Every chance it could achieve super-typhoon status. Best to be prepared.
Sanba has slowed somewhat and is tracking more northwest than earlier forecast. Not good news in one respect, in that Sanba is nourishing itself over warm ocean waters. But Sanba appears as if it will continue on course for an almost-direct hit on Okinawa.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Sunday.
Start preparing. Now.
5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: This thing continues to get bigger, fatter and monstrous with every passing warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Latest forecast wind timeline as of this afternoon:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 144-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.
Clearly, Sanba is fast approaching the no-joke stage. I know, I know; Bolaven was supposed to be, too (and was for Camp Schwab and Okuma). But far better to be safe than sorry and treat Sanba as the "boy who cried wolf."
More later.
1 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba slowed early this morning, then yawed a bit west, but is still forecast to make an almost-direct hit on Okinawa early Sunday morning. Closest point of approach is forecast to be 30 miles southwest at 8 a.m. Sunday.
Here's the initial wind forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 127-mph gusts, 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track has Sanba rolling through the Okinawa area rather quickly, then steaming north toward the Korean peninsula early next week.
Keep in mind, it's still a bit early, only more than a day since Sanba spawned, so things could still change.
In the meantime, better to be safe than sorry. Time to plan those visits to the PX, ATM, gasoline stand and commissary, and begin a general cleanup around home and office.
Midnight Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba continues to develop rapidly, although it's moving north-northwest at a pretty good clip, 14 mph, which affords it less opportunity to nourish itself over warm west-central Pacific waters. Still, Okinawa should be bracing for a wacky, wet Sunday as Sanba roars 48 miles southwest around 6 a.m., packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at its center.
5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: In very short order, Sanba, less than a day old, has mushroomed into a tropical storm. And it appears headed closer to Okinawa than first forecast this morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track has Sanba roaring 55 miles southwest of Okinawa at mid-day Sunday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center.
4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Make that 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as Tropical Depression Sanba is now forecast to rumble 97 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday.
11 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Here we go again. A new tropical depression spawned overnight near Palau. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 17W to turn north and make a beeline toward Okinawa, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it creeps within 97 miles of Okinawa early Sunday morning. As with all tropical cyclones, this one’s in the early stages, so things could change. Stay tuned to PST, AFN Okinawa Wave 89.1 FM, your commanders’ access channels and Facebook pages.
