In the News
China’s Advantage of Backwardness by Bob Davis, Real Time Economics, WSJ blog October 17, 2012
"China will slow over the coming years, but not as much as many predict, write Israel Malkin and Mark Spiegel, because of much of the country is so lightly developed that growth there will continue to speed along. “There is an advantage to backwardness, in the sense that a poorer region or nation has a lot of catching up to do before it prices itself out of certain activities,” said Mr. Spiegel."
» Read more in "Is China Due for a Slowdown" Malkin Spiegel
Norway’s Housing Boom Could Lead to Spain-Style Bust, Say Some by Holly Ellyatt, CNBC October 17, 2012
"Norway's house price rise has been so dramatic that the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote a paper on the subject in June that made parallels between the lead up to the U.S. housing crisis and the “irrationally exuberant bubble” of Norway’s present boom."
» Read more in "Housing Bubbles and Homeownership Returns" Jurgilas Lansing
Fed's Williams: Fed Actions Will Improve Growth by Michael Derby and Ian Sherr, WSJ Online October 16, 2012
"The "strong measures" taken by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting should spur better levels of growth in the U.S. economy, a key central bank official said Monday."
» Read more in "The Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Monetary Policy" Williams
Give Us a Brake: When Fiscal Policy Is in Chaos, Companies Cannot Plan for the Future” taken from The Economist October 6, 2012
"Uncertainty about future economic conditions has added at least a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco."
» Read more in "Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation" Leduc Liu
Working Papers
» More Working Papers
Housing Supply and Foreclosures Working paper 2012-20
TWe explore the role of foreclosure inventories in a model of housing supply. The foreclosure variable is necessary to account for the steep and sustained drop in new construction activity following the U.S. housing market bust beginning in 2006. There is modest evidence that local banking conditions play a role in determining housing starts. Even with state-level foreclosures and banking variables in the model, there is a sizeable post-2006 residual common to all states. We argue that, in addition to observable macro and local factors, housing starts in the Great Recession have been weighed down in part by aggregate uncertainty factors.
Hedberg Krainer September 2012
Upcoming Seminars
Seminar (Finance) Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (Northwestern Kellogg) October 1
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Seminar (Macro) Karl Walentin (Sveriges Riksbank) October 2
Seminar (Finance) Seth Pruitt (Board) October 9
Seminar (Finance) Wayne Passmore (Board) October 10
Seminar (International) Assaf Razin (Cornell) October 12