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Guhan Venkatu |

Economist

Guhan Venkatu, Economist

Guhan Venkatu is an economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His recent research has focused on the housing and mortgage markets and the regional economy of the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Mr. Venkatu joined the Bank in 1998 as a research assistant. He was promoted to senior policy analyst in 2007 and to his present position in 2009. Prior to joining the Bank, he worked as a business analyst for the Claremont Technology Group.

Mr. Venkatu is a member of the Ohio Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors. He is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the Cleveland chapter of the National Association for Business Economics. He obtained his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

 October, 2012 ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Many adjustable rate mortgages in the United States are indexed to Libor. While the accuracy of this rate has recently been called into question, another issue affecting U.S. borrowers has become evident since the onset of the financial crisis. Specifically, many U.S. consumers with Libor-based loans may have been hit with substantially higher payments when their loans reset during the financial crisis than if those loans had been tied to a Treasury rate. We investigate several alternative reference rates for consumer loans and estimate their payment effects on a large sample of Libor-linked U.S. mortgages. We find that these alternatives would have delivered savings over Libor of about $25 to $45 per month and substantially more for mortgages that reset in October 2008.
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 September, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-17 ; Brent Meyer; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI. Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed-means using a well-known equality of prediction test. We find that there is a large swath of trimmed-means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, while the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always includes the median CPI--an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise that highlights the advantage of the median CPI relative to other standard inflation measures.
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 May, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Commentary
Abstract: A region’s economic performance is closely linked to the skills and knowledge of its workforce. Using college attainment as a measure of workforce skills, we examine overall trends in higher education to get a sense of where Ohio stands relative to other states. The data reveal that Ohio has made some progress, especially in improving educational attainment in its younger workers. At the same time, Ohio lags in a number of other dimensions, in particular, in its overall level of college attainment and in attracting educated workers into the state.
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 May, 2011 ; Brent Meyer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: It has often been reported that different demographic groups show persistent differences in their inflation expectations. Some reasonable explanations have been suggested, but most have failed to fully explain these apparent differences. We argue that the demographic differences have been overstated by using the mean to describe differences across demographic groups. When we use the median to describe inflation expectations, we find little meaningful difference across demographic groups.
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 October, 2010 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Nearly one homeowner in ten is more than 90 days delinquent on his mortgage payment. Most of the homes under these mortgages are likely to be repossessed by lenders and resold, which has led some to call them a shadow inventory. How much these homes will affect the broader housing market depends on when they actually become available for sale and how long they remain on the market. Some analysts are concerned that a surge in the availability of repossessed or real-estate owned (REO) properties, or a persistently high level of them, could put downward pressure on prices. This could, in turn, induce additional foreclosures. This Commentary presents three possible scenarios for future REO inventory levels.
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 July, 2009 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Commentary
Abstract: As the foreclosure crisis deepens, increased attention is being paid to foreclosure statistics, which are often used to judge the intensity of foreclosure problems both within and across regions. However, these statistics need to be interpreted carefully; different foreclosure statistics embed different information, and making informative comparisons with various metrics requires understanding how each is constructed.
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 January, 2009 ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Adjustable-rate mortgages have typically been tied to either of two indexes, one based on U.S. treasuries, the other on the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The index is used to determine a mortgage’s new interest rate when it is reset, and up until recently, the choice would have made little difference. But since 2007, the rates on which the indexes are based have diverged sharply, and borrowers with Libor-based adjustable-rate mortgages are likely to pay more than they would have had their mortgages been tied to treasuries. Moreover, the proportion of Libor-based ARMs has increased significantly, especially for subprime loans.
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 February, 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Cleveland’s employment growth has lagged the nation’s for nearly 15 years, a fact that is often blamed on the kinds of industries that are here—either the area is burdened with too much manufacturing, or it has failed to attract enough high-tech industries. But an analysis shows little support for that view.
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 May, 2004 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Two government surveys are used to gather information about employment in the U.S. economy, but the employment levels calculated from each seem to provide conflicting pictures of the labor market. The surveys are very different, but when the differences are taken into account and the survey results are compared with their respective business-cycle patterns, the conflict disappears.
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 November, 2001 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Michael F Bryan; Economic Commentary
Abstract: That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing. This Commentary describes the difference in inflation sentiment held by men and women—a puzzle that may hold the key to interpreting survey-based data on household inflation expectations.
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 October, 2001 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Michael F Bryan; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender—a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.
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