Contact Info


t. 216.579.2991

f. 216.579.3050

To arrange an interview, contact our media coordinator at 216.774.2514 or .

Saeed Zaman |

Senior Economic Analyst

Saeed Zaman, Senior Economic Analyst

Saeed Zaman is a senior economic analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He joined the bank in September of 2002. His work focuses on analyzing economic conditions, economic modeling, and developing software applications that support the research needs of the department. His primary interests include time series econometrics, macroeconomics, and forecasting.

Mr. Zaman has an M.S. in computer science from the University of Southern California, an M.A. in economics from Cleveland State University, and a B.S. in computer engineering from the G.I.K. Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology in Topi, Pakistan.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

 October, 2012 ; Ellis Tallman; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In the wake of Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in conventional monetary policy actions by reducing the federal funds rate. But soon the rate hit zero, and could go no lower. In such environments, policymakers still think in terms of where the federal funds rate should be, were it possible to go negative. To project the "unconstrained path" of the funds rate—ignoring the zero lower bound—and to identify the key underlying shocks driving that path, we employ a statistical macroeconomic forecasting model. We find that the federal funds rate would have been extremely negative during 2009-2010.
top

 

 October, 2011 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 11-28 ; Kenneth Beauchemin; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary variables of interest, but also for their relevance to the monetary policy process. In particular, the variables largely coincide with those of an augmented New-Keynesian DSGE model. We provide out-of sample forecast evaluations and illustrate the computation and use of predictive densities and fan charts. Although the reduced form model is the focus of the paper, we also provide an example of structural analysis to illustrate the macroeconomic response of a monetary policy shock.
top

 

 October, 2011 ; Andrea Pescatori; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Models of the macroeconomy have gotten quite sophisticated, thanks to decades of development and advances in computing power. Such models have also become indispensable tools for monetary policymakers, useful both for forecasting and comparing different policy options. Their failure to predict the recent financial crisis does not negate their usefulness, it only points to some areas that can be improved.
top

 

 August, 2011 ; Todd Clark; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Sharp rises in energy and other commodity prices have recently ignited concerns about inflation. Will these price increases spill over to other prices more generally? We study the typical responses of different price shocks and assess whether the recent behavior of producer and consumer prices is consistent with historical norms. Our analysis shows that the behavior of various producer and consumer prices since late 2009 has generally matched up with historical patterns. Overall, our findings suggest that effects of the recent energy and commodity price shocks on core consumer prices will be modest going forward.
top

 

 April, 2011 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Knowing whether buying a home is a better financial move for a family than renting requires a consideration of costs and options that people often neglect to factor in. One aspect of the calculation that is almost always overlooked is uncertainty—the fact that no matter how good one’s estimates of the future are, the future can turn out differently than projected. Incorporating uncertainty into the rent-or-buy calculation gives potential homebuyers information that can improve their decisions. While incorporating uncertainty is complicated, it’s made easier with the Cleveland Fed’s online calculator.
top

 

 September, 2010 ; Murat Tasci; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether some fundamentals of the market have changed because of that blow. Many are suggesting that the natural rate of long-term unemployment—the level of unemployment an economy can’t go below—has shifted permanently higher. We use a new measure that is based on the rates at which workers are finding and losing jobs and which provides a more accurate assessment of the natural rate. We find that the natural rate of unemployment has indeed shifted higher—but much less so than has been suggested. Surprising trends in both the job-finding and job-separation rates explain much about the current state of the unemployment rate.
top

 

 May, 2009 ; Kent Cherny; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Some reports have shown evidence of contraction in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which could make it difficult for businesses to manage cash flow or finance business expansion. We look at some measures of business lending to analyze supply and demand patterns for these loans. C&I loan volume has fallen, but existing credit lines are being tapped more. Demand for loans has also fallen.
top

 

 April, 2009 ; Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: Annual asset growth of Fourth District BHCs was 3.5 percent last year, down from 2007’s 5.1 percent growth rate. The U.S. commercial banking sector saw a reduction in total assets during the fourth quarter of 2008, as the financial crisis prompted banks to deleverage or slow their rate of asset growth. Nevertheless, total assets nationally and in the Fourth District did grow over the course of 2008.
top

 

 March, 2009 ; Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: The FDIC recently released its fourth-quarter banking summary, giving us the opportunity to examine trends in the FDIC-insured banking industry during 2008. It was a rough year for FDIC-insured banks.
top

 

 December, 2008 ; Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: There are 238 community banks headquartered in the Fourth District. We look at their annual asset growth, income stream, balance sheet composition, liabilities, problem loans, net charge–offs, and coverage ratio.
top

 

 November, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Federal Reserve Board’s October 2008 survey of senior loan officers was recently released. It found significant tightening of standards for commercial and industrial loans since the last survey.
top

 

 July, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: How are bank holding companies in the Fourth District faring? Here's a first-quarter 2008 update on a number of indicators of conditions in the industry.
top

 

 May, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Federal Reserve Board’s April 2008 survey of senior loan officers found significant tightening of standards for commercial and industrial loans since the last survey.
top

 

 May, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: As of December 31, 2007, the FDIC has insured $4.3 trillion of member deposits. Growth in reserves outstripped insured deposits, and the insurance fund’s reserve-to-deposit ratio remains in the mandated target range with the ongoing financial mess—suggests that the Deposit Insurance Fund’s losses might go up in the near future.
top

 

 April, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: There are three fewer bank holding companies in the District with assets of more than $1 billion since 1999, but total assets of all of those remaining has increased every year except 2000. Their income streams deteriorated somewhat in 2007, problem real estate loans jumped to their highest level, problem consumer loans edged up slightly, and the risk-based capital ratio fell sharply.
top

 

 February, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: Passage of the 1994 Reigle-Neal Act, which regulates interstate banking, has spurred the consolidation of depository institutions. The number of FDIC-insured commercial banks fell from 10,166 in the middle of 1995 to 7,350 in the middle of 2007, a decline of more than 27 percent. The total number of banking offices, however, increased nearly 28 percent over that period, from 65,321 to 83,358.
top

 

 February, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
top

 

 January, 2008 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
top

 

 December, 2007 ; Ed Nosal; Economic Trends
top

 

 November, 2007 ; Ed Nosal; Economic Trends
top

 

 November, 2007 ; Ed Nosal; Economic Trends
top

 

 October, 2007 ; Ed Nosal; Economic Trends
Abstract: Banking and Financial Institutions
top

 

 January, 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Since the 1970s, productivity growth in the manufacturing sector has outpaced the overall economy, yet the sector's share of the workforce has declined dramatically. This leads us to ask if we are in fact engineering ourselves out of jobs. This Economic Commentary explores the relationship between productivity and employment and points out why this apparently straightforward relationship may be more complicated than it appears.
top