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Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2017.
Deflation Probability Measure Continued PatternPrices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012–17 period continued its overall pattern of the past few weeks, changing little. This measure inched down from 13 percent on October 10 to 12 percent on October 17. The deflation probability for the 2011–16 period was 10 percent on October 17, down slightly from 11 percent on October 10.
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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