Options on federal funds futures can be analyzed to extract public expectations of future Fed actions. The charts below show what markets believe the most likely outcome of upcoming FOMC meetings will be. The charts are updated every business day and reflect the most recent data released by the Chicago Board of Trade. Probabilities can be estimated with various assumptions, which are described in detail here and in the readme worksheet of the downloadable Excel file. The assumptions used to construct each day's charts are indicated immediately below the pictures.

October 17, 2012

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Technical note: October's chart was estimated with a futures restriction using the single meeting estimation technique. Settlement prices for the November fed funds futures contract and settlement prices for options on that futures contract were used to estimate these implied probabilities. For more detail, see the explanation of assumptions page or see the readme worksheet of this excel file. Included in the excel file are estimations using alternative assumptions and different sets of alternative target rates. Some of these alternative models are included in these downloadable slides.