Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
This table also can be found in the article, "The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain times," published in the January 2012 Monthly
Labor Review.
Also available as: [ XLS]
Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1990, 2000, 2010, and projected 2020
Exogenous variables |
Billions of chained
2005 dollars
(unless noted)
|
Annual rate of change |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
1990-2000 |
2000-10 |
2010-20 |
Monetary policy-related: |
Federal funds rate (percent) |
8.1 |
6.2 |
0.2 |
4.5 |
-2.6 |
-30.0 |
38.4 |
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
7.5 |
5.8 |
0.1 |
4.2 |
-2.5 |
-31.3 |
41.0 |
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)
|
8.6 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
5.5 |
-3.4 |
-6.1 |
5.5 |
| |
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
20.8 |
23.3 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
1.1 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
21.1 |
25.3 |
23.0 |
23.0 |
1.8 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
23.7 |
28.9 |
22.5 |
22.5 |
2.0 |
-2.4 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
25.7 |
18.8 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
-3.1 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
34.0 |
35.0 |
35.0 |
35.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| |
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
Defense intermediate goods and services purchased |
174.0 |
147.2 |
289.8 |
224.4 |
-1.7 |
7.0 |
-2.5 |
Defense gross investment |
75.0 |
50.3 |
110.2 |
131.5 |
-3.9 |
8.2 |
1.8 |
Nondefense intermediate goods and services purchased |
65.4 |
74.5 |
137.8 |
93.9 |
1.3 |
6.3 |
-3.8 |
Nondefense gross investment |
23.9 |
31.7 |
50.5 |
46.4 |
2.8 |
4.8 |
-0.8 |
Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
111.4 |
247.3 |
531.5 |
614.4 |
8.3 |
8.0 |
1.5 |
Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars) |
107.6 |
219.1 |
518.5 |
987.0 |
7.4 |
9.0 |
6.7 |
| |
Energy-related: |
Refiners' acquisition cost of imported oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
22.2 |
27.7 |
75.9 |
119.4 |
2.2 |
10.6 |
4.6 |
Domestic oil product |
31.9 |
29.3 |
26.5 |
24.0 |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
| |
Demographic-related: |
Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions) |
250.1 |
282.5 |
310.4 |
341.8 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
Population aged 16 and over (in millions) |
189.2 |
212.6 |
237.8 |
263.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
|
|
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Last Modified Date: February 01, 2012
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