By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 30, 2010
8 p.m. Japan time Saturday, Oct. 30: Yokosuka Naval Base is now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). PST will sign off.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 30, 2010
6 p.m. Japan time Saturday, Oct. 30: Chaba has been downgraded to an extratropical cyclone by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. According to the National Hurricane Center, an extratropical cyclone means one that is no longer tropical in nature, a cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses. It is possible for a typhoon to become an extratropical cyclone and still retain typhoon- or hurricane-force winds. Chaba will make its closest point of approach to Yokosuka in about an hour, 65 miles southeast, and is still retaining 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at its center
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 30, 2010
3:40 p.m. Japan time Saturday, Oct. 30: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) issued at Yokosuka Naval Base at 2:30 p.m. Wind gusts of up to 70 mph forecast for around 5 p.m.; tropical cyclone advisory remains in effect until midnight. Naval Air Facility Atsugi is under a gale advisory until midnight and high-wind advisory until 3 a.m. Sunday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 29, 2010
11:20 a.m. Japan time, Saturday, Oct. 30: As cold as it is here in the Kanto Plain, one wonders how Chaba has retained typhoon strength -- until one remembers how unpredictable the weather is to begin with. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 remains in effect along with a tropical cyclone advisory for Yokosuka Naval Base, lasting until midnight. Gusts of up to 70 mph forecast for Yokosuka into the late evening, tapering off in the morning. Chaba is forecast to pass some 85 miles southeast of Yokosuka about 7 p.m.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 28, 2010
12:40 p.m. Japan time Friday, Oct. 29: Typhoon Chaba has left the Okinawa area and is curving northeast toward the Tokyo area, with passage forecast for about 11 p.m. Saturday, when the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Chaba to be 70 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, still packing significant tropical storm-strength sustained 58-mph winds and 75-mph gusts at its center.
Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. Local forecasts call for Yokosuka to experience increasing winds and gusts starting Saturday, up to 40 mph in the morning, 58 mph by evening, 69 mph by late evening into Sunday, decreasing to 40 mph by early morning, 29 mph by noon and 15 mph by Sunday evening.
At Naval Air Facility Atsugi, expect gusts of 35 mph Saturday morning increasing to 52 mph by afternoon and evening, diminishing to 35 mph Sunday morning and dissipating by evening. Expect similar conditions at Camp Zama, just a few miles north.
Although damaging sustained winds of 58 mph and greater are not forecast for the Kanto Plain, it should still be a wet, blustery Halloween Eve. Recommended that something of a cleanup of loose objects and tying down that bicycle or storing it inside be done around your home and office, as well as a run to the commissary for water, batteries and so on. Even a plastic garbage can lid can become a dangerous projectile in a high wind gust. Be safe. :)
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 28, 2010
11:25 p.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) declared for Okinawa at 10:38 p.m., about 4 1/2 hours earlier than forecast.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 28, 2010
11 p.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3 issued for Kanto Plain early Thursday evening. Okinawa remains in TCCOR 1-E (emergency). Typhoon Chaba has drifted further east of Okinawa, and is now forecast to rumble some 70 miles east-southeast of the Kanto Plain about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts at its center. For its part, Okinawa has experienced a maximum wind gust of 70 mph at Kadena Air Base at 1:27 p.m. Thursday. Winds should start diminishing to 40 mph at mid-morning Friday, but it should remain blustery even after Chaba moves away, with 29-mph winds forecast all the way into Sunday. Kadena 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts rainfall through 6 a.m. Saturday to be between 11 and 13 inches.
By Dave Ornauer and Erik Slavin
Published: October 28, 2010
2:30 p.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Here it comes. Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) at 2:30 p.m. when sustained 58-mph winds began occuring on Okinawa. These winds should continue until about 3 a.m. Friday; peak sustained 58-mph winds and 80-mph gusts are forecast by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight to run from 4 p.m. to 1 a.m. Friday.
TCCOR 4 has been issued for the Kanto Plain at 2:30 p.m. At Yokosuka Naval Base, the destroyers USS Fitzgerald and Larssen were sent out of port to ride out the storm, 7th Fleet spokesman Jeff Davis said. The aircraft carrier USS George Washington and destroyer USS Stethem had been slated to return to port but have remained at sea due to Typhoon Chaba. Other vessels are single-berthed and are being secured by extra lines and other safeguards. Sunday's outdoor portion of Yokosuka's Halloween event has been canceled.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 28, 2010
1:25 p.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Once finished raking Okinawa with gusts up to 80 mph and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches. Typhoon Chaba is forecast to diminish in strength and speed rapidly toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts landfall for sometime Saturday evening over the Izu Peninsula, then rumbling past Yokosuka Naval Base, Yokota Air Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi around 1 a.m. Sunday. Damaging winds aren't forecast to occur, but Chaba should still be packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at its center.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 28, 2010
1:20 p.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Typhoon Chaba has picked up some forward speed, and is now forecast to make its closest point of approach at 8 p.m. Thursday, some 130 miles east of Okinawa. Wind gusts of 58 mph are already occuring; Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts call for sustained 58-mph winds and 80-mph gusts to occur between 4 p.m. Thursday and 1 p.m. Friday.
This Pacific Storm Tracker reminder: If you live off base and see the Japanese roaming about their daily affairs and driving their cars to the swift completion of their appointed rounds, don't take that as a cue to do the same. U.S. Forces Japan regulations and local directives mandate that our GIs, civilians and dependents stay indoors during typhoons for a reason. Better safe than sorry. Please opt on the side of the former. :)
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 27, 2010
10:30 a.m. Japan time Thursday, Oct. 28: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) was issued for Okinawa at 10 a.m. local time. Time to get indoors if you're still out and about. Stay safe.
DODDS Pacific officials say the Guam High at Kadena football game at 7 p.m. Saturday and Kubasaki's football trip to Singapore will go as scheduled. The Far East journalism students from Kadena and Kubasaki will try to fly home Friday, officials said.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 27, 2010
8 a.m. Japan time Thursday, Ocf. 28: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-1 declared at 5 a.m. for Okinawa. Typhoon Chaba has picked up forward speed and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to rumble some 120 miles east of Okinawa at 11 p.m. Thursday. Winds of 40 mph are already occuring; onset of 58-mph winds forecast for 3 p.m. Thursday by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Maximum wind gusts of 70 mph forecast between 5 and 9 p.m. Winds should start tapering to 40 mph by 6 a.m. and 35 mph by 9 a.m. Friday. Sea condition red for both coasts. Rainfall of between 4 to 6 inches forecast from now until 6 a.m. Saturday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 27, 2010
9:30 p.m. Japan time Wednesday, Oct. 27: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-2 declared for Okinawa at 5:19 p.m. Wednesday. If you've not already cleaned up around the office or yard and made that commissary run, better do so by Thursday mid-day. Winds of 40-52 mph forecast to begin Thursday, with the onset of 58-mph gusts after 3 p.m. Sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts forecast for 1-3 a.m. Friday by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Winds will taper down to 40-52 mph Friday afternoon, 23-34 mph Saturday morning and 18-23 mph Saturday afternoon.
DODDS Pacific officials plan to teleconference with district superintendents to decide the fate of the Guam High at Kadena and Kubasaki at Singapore high school football games; Guam High and Kubasaki are due to travel Friday. Also, they'll determine where to house Kadena and Kubasaki students at the Far East Journalism Conference who might be stranded in Tokyo for an extra day or so.
Kadena Air Base's operational readiness exercise has been postponed and Camp Foster's Fright Night slated for Friday and Saturday has been canceled due to Chaba, base officials announced.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 26, 2010
11 a.m. Japan time Wednesday, Oct. 27: Time to start picking up around your home and office and make that commissary run. Typhoon Chaba has slowed and continues tracking further west, making for more grim wind projections for Okinawa come Friday. The island remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Chaba to rumble 61 miles east of Kadena Air Base around 10 a.m. Friday. Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts damaging winds of 58 mph and greater to occur between 9 p.m. Thursday and 3 p.m. Friday, with 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts between 2 and 6 a.m. Friday. PST will update around 10 p.m.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 26, 2010
1 a.m. Japan time Wednesday, Oct. 27: Typhoon Chaba has edged further west, and its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track now has it passing about 70 miles east of Okinawa at 9 a.m. Friday. Winds of between 46 and 58 mph now forecast for between 4 a.m. and noon Friday. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 26, 2010
10:20 p.m. Japan time Tuesday, Oct. 26: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3 was issued for Okinawa at 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, as Typhoon Chaba continues its northwest path toward closest point of approach forecast for 1 a.m. Friday, 120 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base. Kadena 18th Wing Weather Flight officials forecast winds of up to 46 mph for Wednesday, gusts up to 58 mph on Thursday tapering off to 46-mph gusts Friday evening, then 35-mph gusts Saturday morning diminishing to 30 mph in the evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 25, 2010
8 a.m. Japan time Tuesday, Oct. 26: No change from previous posts. Just waiting and seeing what effect the approaching cold front will have on Typhoon Chaba over the coming hours. Meantime, Okinawa is already experiencing winds and gusts up to 35 mph, the beginning of what’s expected to be a blustery four days. Peak winds still forecast at 45 mph Thursday into Friday morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 25, 2010
7 p.m. Japan time Monday, Oct. 25: Both a cold front approaching Okinawa from the north and Tropical Storm Chaba from the South should combine to give the island a “very windy week,” said an official with Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Chaba remains on course to rumble past Kadena about 145 miles to its east at 3 p.m. Friday, packing sustained 105-mph winds and 130-mph gusts at its center, Category 2-equivalent strength. The cold front should begin its push through Okinawa on Tuesday, followed by Chaba’s west-quadrant winds; forecasts call for Kadena to experience 35-mph winds and 52-mph gusts starting around mid-day Thursday, tapering off after Friday morning. Naturally, PST will keep a sharp lookout. Stay tuned.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 25, 2010
1:45 p.m. Japan time Monday, Oct. 25: All parameters remain the same, except Tropical Storm Chaba keeps tracking further west, now forecast to pass 120 miles east of Okinawa around 4 a.m. Saturday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center. If Chaba remains on its forecast track, Okinawa can expect 40-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts on Friday, officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight said. There’s a chance that an approaching cold front from the north might deflect Chaba to the northeast away from Okinawa, but it also might not. PST will keep track. Stay tuned.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 24, 2010
7:45 a.m. Japan time Monday, Oct. 25: Tropical Storm Chaba continues turning toward the north, and could push its way into Okinawa's neighborhood by Thursday or Friday. Closest point of approach as forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is 145 miles east of Kadena Air Base by 10 p.m. Thursday, packing Category 1-equivalent 80-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 98 at its center. Officials at Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight said the island could experience 40- to 45-mph winds and gusts starting late Thursday. We'll continue keeping an eye on it.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 23, 2010
5:30 p.m. Japan time Saturday, Oct. 23: Latest forecast track by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows Tropical Depression 16W might end up missing Okinawa to its southeast on Thursday. If it remains on its current course, 16W should rumble 230 miles southeast of the island at 3 p.m. Thursday, making for a possibly rainy, gusty afternoon depending on how much Okinawa feels from the storm's outer bands. And 16W's western quadrants, typically the weaker ones, would be closest to the island. PST is keeping an eyeball on things.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 23, 2010
Should Tropical Depression 16W become a named storm, it will be called Chaba, Thai for a tropical flower, the shoeflower or genus hibiscus.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 23, 2010
2:30 p.m. Japan time Saturday, Oct. 23: Traffic is picking up along Typhoon Alley, the latest passenger a tropical depression well to Okinawa’s southeast at the moment, but forecast to drop a calling card in its direction by late next week. Tropical Depression 16W is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to make a hard right turn over the next couple of days and head due north, and should be about 285 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base by mid-morning Thursday, packing sustained 80-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center, equal to a Category 1 hurricane. Storm tracker, as always, will keep a sharp eyeball on it.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 17, 2010
11 p.m. Philippines Time, Sunday, Oct. 17: PST has been observing typhoons of all sizes and shapes in his 30 years with Stripes ... but never has he observed sustained and gusts of 180 and 220 mph at the center of any storm until Super Typhoon Megi, which contines to zero in on Luzon Island.
At 8 p.m. local, Megi (or Juan) was 360 miles northeast of Manila, heading toward Luzon at 14 mph. Landfall is forecast for mid-day Monday, and Megi is projected to continue to remain at Category 1 or 2 strength even over land, until it rumbles back over open water into the South China Sea late Monday evening.
Please pray for the folks in northeast Luzon.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 17, 2010
2:45 p.m. Philippines time Sunday, Oct. 17: Typhoon warnings have been issued for 19 provinces in the northern Philippines as Megi (or Juan), the first super typhoon of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season, draws a bead on Luzon Island, with landfall forecast mid-day Monday. And Clark Field and Subic Bay should feel its effects as it cuts a swath across the country's northernmost island.
At 9 a.m., Megi, the 15th numbered storm of the season, was 520 miles northeast of Manila, churning west at 14 mph packing Category 5-equivalent sustained winds of 160 mph and 195-mph gusts. It's forecast to intensify even further over the next few hours, reaching 165-mph sustained and 200-mph gusts.
Landfall should occur around noon Monday. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Megi to rumble 150 miles north of Clark and 175 miles north of Subic between midnight and 1 a.m. Tuesday. Winds will have diminished as Megi interacts with land, but both locations could experience wind gusts up to 35 mph, perhaps stronger if Megi drifts further south than originally forecast.
Once it moves back over water, Megi is forecast to re-intensify as it drifts northwest in China's general direction.
