‹ Analysis & Projections
AEO2012 Early Release Overview
Release Date: January 23, 2012 | Full Report Release Date: April 2012 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2012)
2025 | 2035 | ||||||||
Energy and economic factors | 2009 | 2010 | AEO2012 | AEO2011 | AE2012 | AEO2011 | |||
Primary energy (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||||
Petroleum | 13.93 | 14.37 | 17.48 | 16.19 | 16.81 | 16.72 | |||
Dry natural gas | 21.09 | 22.10 | 26.63 | 24.60 | 28.51 | 27.00 | |||
Coal | 21.63 | 22.08 | 22.51 | 23.64 | 23.51 | 26.01 | |||
Nuclear power | 8.36 | 8.44 | 9.60 | 9.17 | 9.35 | 9.14 | |||
Hydropower | 2.67 | 2.51 | 2.97 | 3.04 | 3.06 | 3.09 | |||
Biomass | 3.72 | 4.05 | 6.73 | 7.20 | 9.68 | 8.63 | |||
Other renewable energy | 1.11 | 1.34 | 2.13 | 2.58 | 2.80 | 3.22 | |||
Other | 0.47 | 0.64 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.78 | |||
Total | 72.97 | 75.52 | 88.79 | 87.29 | 94.59 | 94.59 | |||
Net imports (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||||
Liquid fuels | 20.90 | 20.35 | 16.33 | 19.91 | 16.22 | 19.85 | |||
Natural gas | 2.76 | 2.66 | -0.81 | 1.14 | -1.39 | 0.23 | |||
Coal/other (- indicates export) | -0.90 | -1.58 | -1.44 | -0.51 | -1.29 | -0.50 | |||
Total | 22.77 | 21.43 | 14.08 | 20.54 | 13.54 | 19.58 | |||
Consumption (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||||
Liquid fuels | 36.49 | 37.25 | 37.04 | 39.84 | 38.00 | 41.70 | |||
Natural gas | 23.42 | 24.71 | 25.80 | 25.73 | 27.11 | 27.24 | |||
Coal | 19.62 | 20.76 | 20.60 | 22.61 | 21.57 | 24.30 | |||
Nuclear power | 8.36 | 8.44 | 9.60 | 9.17 | 9.35 | 9.14 | |||
Hydropower | 2.67 | 2.51 | 2.97 | 3.04 | 3.06 | 3.09 | |||
Biomass | 2.72 | 2.88 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 5.85 | 5.25 | |||
Other renewable energy | 1.11 | 1.34 | 2.13 | 2.58 | 2.80 | 3.22 | |||
Net electricity imports | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.25 | |||
Total | 94.70 | 98.16 | 102.93 | 107.95 | 107.97 | 114.19 | |||
Liquid fuels (million barrels per day) | |||||||||
Domestic crude oil production | 5.36 | 5.47 | 6.42 | 5.88 | 6.12 | 5.95 | |||
Other domestic production | 3.66 | 4.22 | 5.71 | 5.84 | 6.66 | 6.84 | |||
Net imports | 9.72 | 9.53 | 7.39 | 9.22 | 7.36 | 9.14 | |||
Consumption | 18.81 | 19.17 | 19.46 | 20.99 | 20.08 | 21.93 | |||
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) | |||||||||
Dry gas production + supplemental | 20.65 | 21.65 | 26.07 | 24.04 | 27.90 | 26.38 | |||
Net imports | 2.68 | 2.58 | -0.84 | 1.08 | -1.43 | 0.18 | |||
Consumption | 22.85 | 24.13 | 25.20 | 25.07 | 26.48 | 26.55 | |||
Coal (million short tons) | |||||||||
Production | 1,089 | 1,098 | 1,144 | 1,202 | 1,204 | 1,333 | |||
Net imports | -38 | -64 | -57 | -19 | -49 | -18 | |||
Consumption | 997 | 1,051 | 1,087 | 1,182 | 1,155 | 1,315 | |||
Prices (2010 dollars) | |||||||||
Imported low-sulfur, light crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 62.37 | 79.39 | 132.50 | 118.57 | 144.56 | 126.03 | |||
Imported crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 59.72 | 75.87 | 121.23 | 108.34 | 132.69 | 114.69 | |||
Domestic natural gas at wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) | 3.85 | 4.16 | 5.23 | 5.47 | 6.52 | 6.48 | |||
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton) | 33.62 | 35.61 | 43.87 | 33.51 | 49.24 | 34.22 | |||
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour) | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 9.3 | |||
Economic indicators | |||||||||
Real gross domestic product (billion 2005 dollars) | 12.703 | 13.088 | 19.176 | 20.020 | 24.639 | 25.692 | |||
GDP chain-type price index (2005 = 1.000) | 1.097 | 1.110 | 1.459 | 1.450 | 1.762 | 1.749 | |||
Real disposable personal income (billion 2005 dollars) | 9.883 | 10.062 | 14.474 | 15.118 | 18.252 | 19.224 | |||
Value of manufacturing shipments (billion 2005 dollars) | 4.052 | 4.260 | 5.735 | 6.016 | 6.270 | 6.770 | |||
Primary energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) | 7.45 | 7.50 | 5.37 | 5.39 | 4.38 | 4.44 | |||
Carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) | 5.425 | 5.634 | 5.618 | 5.938 | 5.806 | 6.311 | |||
Notes: Quantities reported in quadrillion Btu are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production
includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils,
alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Both coal consumption and coal production include
waste coal consumed in the electric power and industrial sectors. Sources: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D121011B; and AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2011.D020911A. |
Sections
- Executive summary
- Introduction
- Economic growth
- Energy prices
- Energy consumption
by sector - Energy consumption
by primary fuel - Energy intensity
- Energy production
and imports - Electricity generation
- Energy-related CO2 emissions
Data Tables
Reference Case Summary & Detailed Tables
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