Integrated Tools for Scenario Discovery
Research Programs
Climate & Air Quality
Because climate change occurs over decades, scenarios are used to understand the impacts of policy decisions on a range of future outcomes. However, fully assessing the air quality and climate change impacts of a given emission scenario requires extensive computational modeling and analysis. Tools that can rapidly inform decision-makers and stakeholders are a first-order need.
To meet this need, we are developing GLIMPSE -- a framework for connecting atmospheric chemistry, radiative forcing, and energy-economy models to rapidly understand the integrated air quality and climate change impacts of US emission scenarios. GLIMPSE stands for Geos-CHEM LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration. The four components are
- GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to simulate the global impacts of US emissions
- LIDORT radiative transfer model to calculate the radiative forcing impacts from short-lived species such as black carbon (developed by Robert Spurr)
- Adjoint calculations of GEOS-Chem LIDORT, to explicitly attribute the contribution from US emission sources to global changes in radiative forcing
- EPA 9-Region MARKAL energy system model to discover the technologies, activities, and policy options that jointly achieve our air quality and climate change goals
GLIMPSE data flow: GEOS-Chem LIDORT Adjoint model is used to attribute
radiative forcing changes to US emission sectors. These data are used
in conjunction with greenhouse gas emissions as constraints for the
MARKAL model, which is in turn used to generate scenarios that meet
these constraints. |
Contacts: Rob Pinder, Farhan Akhtar, Dan Loughlin (EPA NRMRL), Daven Henze (University of Colorado)
Relevant links:
- GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model
- LIDORT radiative transfer model
- GEOS-Chem LIDORT Adjoint presentation by Daven Henze at GEOS-Chem Users Meeting 2009