Northeast Impacts & Adaptation

The Northeast includes dense cities and sparsely populated towns. The region extends from the coast to inland plateaus and mountains. Its climate varies as much as its geography. Portions of West Virginia, the region's southern-most state, typically experience more than 20 days per year of 90°F temperatures. In contrast, northern areas of Maine typically experience only one day per year above 90°F. ^[1]

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By the end of the 21st Century, New Hampshire summers may feel more like North Carolina today. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Over the last several decades, the Northeast has experienced noticeable changes in its climate. Since 1970, the average annual temperature rose by 2°F and the average winter temperature increased by 4°F. ^[2] Heavy precipitation events increased in magnitude and frequency. For the region as a whole, the majority of winter precipitation now falls as rain, not snow. ^[2] Climate scientists project that these trends will continue.

As seen in the map, New Hampshire's summers could be as warm as North Carolina's summers are today by the end of this century. Over the same period, Boston is projected to experience an increase in the number of days reaching 100°F — from an average of one per year between 1961 and 1990 to as many as 24 days per year by 2100. ^[2] Under a higher emissions scenario, Philadelphia and Hartford could see as many as 30 days per year with temperatures reaching 100°F. ^[2]

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Precipitation and Sea Level Rise Impacts

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Boston will experience an increase in the number of days over 100°F. Source: USGCRP (2009)

The combination of a projected increase in heavy precipitation and likely sea level rise may lead to more frequent, damaging floods in the Northeast. ^[2] The region's dense population and large coastal cities, including New York, place this region at risk for significant losses.

Overall, the amount of precipitation throughout the Northeast is projected to increase. Less winter precipitation falling as snow will likely increase the number and impact of flooding events. Sea level rise, storm surges, erosion, and the destruction of important coastal ecosystems will likely contribute to an increase in coastal flooding events, including the frequency of current "100-year flood" levels (severe flood levels with a one-in-100 likelihood of occurring in any given year). By the end of the century, New York City may experience a 100-year flood every 10 to 22 years, on average. ^[2] Damages to coastal property and infrastructure could impact the insurance industry. New York State alone has more than $2.3 trillion in insured coastal property. ^[2]

For more information on climate change impacts on coastal resources, please visit the Coastal page.

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Impacts on Human Health

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West Nile Virus Transmission Cycle. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Hot summer days can worsen air pollution, especially in urban areas. In areas of the Northeast that currently face problems with smog, inhabitants are likely to experience more days that fail to meet air quality standards. More frequent heat waves and lower air quality can threaten the health of vulnerable people, including the very young, the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without access to air conditioning or adequate health care. ^[2] People who live in Northeastern cities are particularly at-risk, since the region is generally not as well adapted to heat as warmer regions of the country. Northeastern cities are likely to experience some of the highest numbers of heat-related illnesses and deaths, compared with the rest of the nation. ^[3]

More frequent extreme precipitation events would increase the risk of waterborne illnesses caused by sewage overflows and pollutants entering the water supply. Combined with extremely hot days, the increase in heavy rain events is likely to create more favorable conditions for the breeding of mosquitoes that carry West Nile Virus. ^[2] Furthermore, extreme storms can damage infrastructure, such as dams, levees, and bridges, resulting in loss of life.

For more information about the impacts of climate change on human health, please visit the Health page.

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Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply

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Cranberry harvest in New Jersey. Source: USDA (2006)

Average temperatures in the Northeast are projected to increase and precipitation patterns are projected to continue to change. These changes are likely to affect the types of crops cultivated in the Northeast. Large portions of the region may become unsuitable for growing some fruit varieties and some crops, such as apples, blueberries, grain, and soybeans. With much warmer average temperatures, cranberries — a staple of Cape Cod's agriculture — may no longer grow in southeastern Massachusetts. ^[2] Similarly, by the end of the century, only a small portion of the Northeast may be suitable for maple syrup production. In contrast, the region could see a longer growing season for a number of other crops, which would provide potential benefits to society.

Dairy production is important to the Northeast's agricultural economy. Increases in temperature will likely reduce milk yields and slow weight gain in dairy cows. ^[2] The projected increases in temperature would negatively affect operations, since production costs would increase with reductions in milk and meat production. In addition, without cooler nighttime temperatures, many cows would experience continued heat stress that could ultimately result in loss of cattle.

Fisheries are also an important part of the region's economy and food supply. Although the Northeast experienced a significant increase in lobster catch over the last few decades, there is variability within the region. Northern areas of the region fared better. Warmer temperatures in the northern regions of the Gulf of Maine led to better survival rates of lobsters and more suitable lobster settlements. This indicated a northern shift in suitable lobster habitats. Northern regions are likely to continue to benefit from warmer water temperatures. Meanwhile, warmer waters have negatively affected southern areas of the region. In these areas, lobster catches peaked in the mid-1990s and dropped sharply after temperature-sensitive bacteria struck coastal Massachusetts in 1997. ^[2] Declines in lobster catches in southern areas of the Northeast are likely to continue and worsen because of temperature-related disease. ^[2]

For more information about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food supplies, please visit the Agriculture and Food Supply page.

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Impacts on Forests

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Projected shifts in tree species. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Heat stress and decreased soil moisture are likely to negatively affect the productive ability of several tree types in the Northeast. Some of the trees that are currently common across the Northeast, such as maple, birch, and beech, could experience a significant northward shift in their growing region. ^[2] As the ranges for spruce and fir trees shrink, several of the animal species that live in these forests could be at risk of losing their habitats. ^[2]

While warmer temperatures would directly affect tree health, these conditions could also allow certain destructive invasive species to thrive. The hemlock woolly adelgid is of particular concern in the Northeast. This highly destructive insect has worked its way through hemlock forests from Georgia to Connecticut. Hemlock forests provide habitat for a variety of species, including several unique types of birds (the blue-headed vireo and Blackburnian warbler). The hemlock woolly adelgid could completely wipe out hemlock populations in the Northeast, destroying habitat for these birds, among other species. ^[4]

For more information about the impacts of climate change on forests, please visit the Forests page.

Impacts on Winter Recreation

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Location of ski resorts in the Northeast — warmer temperatures could cause most to close by the end of the century. Source: USGCRP (2009)

The Northeast region has many winter recreation opportunities, including snow sports (skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing, dog sledding) and ice-based activities (ice fishing and skating). These activities contribute about $7.6 billion annually to the Northeastern economy. Projected increases in temperature could reduce snow cover and shorten winter snow seasons, limiting and altering these types of activities.

The average length of the ski season may decline to less than 100 days, and winter nights are expected to be warmer. Ski resorts may require more artificial snowmaking to produce snowpack. Artificial snowmaking requires additional water and energy, increasing costs to the resorts. The impacts of these changes may decrease the economic viability of operating ski resorts in the Northeast. ^[2]

To learn more about what the Northeast is doing to adapt to climate change impacts, please visit the adaptation section of the Northeast Impacts and Adaptation page.

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References

[1] National Climatic Data Center (2011). Mean Number of Days with Maximum Temperature 90 Degrees F or Higher (Data through 2002) .

[2] USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA.

[3] CCSP (2008). Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems . A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Gamble, J.L. (ed.), K.L. Ebi, F.G. Sussman, T.J. Wilbanks, (Authors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

[4] CCSP (2008). The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States . A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Backlund, P., A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M. Ryan, S. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelly, L Meyerson, B. Peterson, and R. Shaw. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

Adaptation Examples in the Northeast

Efforts to prepare for climate change are underway in the Northeast. The region will likely face a variety of impacts from climate change, including more frequent heat waves, increases in intense precipitation, and sea level rise. Learn more about climate change impacts in the Northeast in the Northeast Impacts section.

Below are examples of ongoing efforts to adapt to climate change impacts in the Northeast, followed by links to a number of adaptation plans, reports, and studies specific to the region. Both the examples and links are intended to be illustrative, not comprehensive.

Philadelphia prevents heat related deaths

The Philadelphia "Heatline" answers caller's health questions and sends Health Department staff on home visits when necessary.
Source: City of Philadelphia Public Health (2010)

In 1991, Philadelphia created a Heat Task Force to develop a plan to prevent heat-related deaths. In 1995, the Heat Task Force launched the Philadelphia Hot Weather Health Watch and Warning System (PDF), which uses many techniques to protect residents from extreme heat. Some techniques that have been employed include using the media to warn and educate the public about pending extreme heat events, offering an emergency hotline, providing daytime shelter hours and increasing outreach to homeless people. ^[1] The Philadelphia program demonstrates how coordinating simple steps can minimize the impact of extreme heat events. According to several studies (see here and here ), Philadelphia experienced fewer heat-attributable excess deaths after beginning its program.

For more information on the health impacts of heat waves, please visit the Health Impacts section of the Health Impacts & Adaptation page. For more information on adaptation measures for heat waves, please visit the Health Adaptation section of the Health Impacts & Adaptation page.

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City of Keene releases a Climate Resilience Action Plan

The October 2005 flooding caused millions of dollars of damage in Keene, NH. Source: Ready NH(2005)

Keene, a small city in Southwest New Hampshire, was the first municipality to pilot ICLEI's Climate Resilient Communities (PDF) program. ^[2] After flooding in 2005 caused millions of dollars of damage, the City of Keene decided to expand climate protection efforts to include adaptation. ^[2] Keene convened a climate adaptation committee and included an adaptation approach in its Climate Resilient Action Plan (PDF) . The plan has several initiatives, including: identify the 200-year floodplain and prevent future development in these areas to reduce flood risk; assess the need for new culvert capacity, identify existing and future potential animal migration routes to protect wildlife; and establish retraining, scholarship, and loan programs for residents whose businesses are impacted by climate change (such as snowplowing and maple sugar farming). ^[2]

For more information about adaptation measures for flooding, visit the Water Resources Impacts & Adaptation page; for wildlife habitat, visit the Ecosystems Impacts & Adaptation page; and for the economy, visit the Society Impacts & Adaptation page.

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New York City prepares for climate change

New York City developed PlaNYC , a comprehensive plan to help the city respond to the complex demands of a growing population, aging infrastructure, changing climate, and evolving economy. ^[3] In 2008, the mayor convened the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) to advise the city on the best available science on climate change. Based on the NPCC recommendations, among other activities, the city has:

Volunteers have helped New York City plant the first half a million trees scheduled to be planted by 2017.
Source: MillionTreesNYC (2012)

• Planted trees as part of the one million tree initiative
• Adopted a Green Infrastructure Plan (PDF) to upgrade the wastewater and sewer systems to better cope with heavy storms.
• Coated more than one million square feet of roofs with reflective coating through NYC CoolRoofs , to reduce heat absorption in the city.

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Massachusetts wastewater treatment plant plans for sea level rise

The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority incorporated sea level rise into plans for building a wastewater treatment plant on Deer Island in Boston Harbor. The plant processes raw sewage and stormwater from on-shore communities. Since releasing the treated water is done through gravity outflow, the relative level of the treatment facility to the water level is essential. Despite the initial additional costs of building the facility 1.9 feet higher than initially planned, this will eliminate the need to construct a costly seawall and change the discharge processing. ^[4]

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EPA works with water utilities and estuaries to protect the region

EPA's Climate Ready Water Utilities initiative provides resources for water utilities to develop plans to adapt to changes in the water supply. For example:

• Climate Ready Water Utilities and EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries program brought the North Hudson Sewerage Authority and New York/New Jersey National Estuary Program together to jointly assess their climate risks and begin developing adaptation plans.
• New York City Department of Environmental Protection assessed its wastewater treatment plant's risk to climate change impacts while piloting the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) in fall 2010.

EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries program supports coastal resource managers in preparing for the impacts of climate change. EPA has partnered with several National Estuary Programs in the Northeast to assess climate change vulnerabilities, develop and implement adaptation strategies, engage and educate stakeholders, and share the lessons learned with other coastal managers. For example:

• With assistance from EPA, the Long Island Sound Study (LISS) developed a monitoring strategy to track changes in the estuary, provide early warning of climate change impacts, and guide adaption.
• The Casco Bay Estuary Partnership (CBEP) in Portland, Maine worked with EPA to improve how CBEP engages its stakeholders, integrating community goals and concerns into adaptation strategies.
• The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary engaged experts throughout their tri-state region to assess the vulnerabilities and adaptation options for three key resources: tidal wetlands, drinking water, and bivalve shellfish.
• The Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership (PREP) conducted the PREP Culvert Assessment Study (PDF) to determine which road culverts are susceptible to failure under conditions with increasing severe storms.

EPA's Climate Ready Water Utilities and Climate Ready Estuaries initiatives are working to coordinate their efforts and support climate change risk assessment and adaptation planning. The impacts of climate change can extend beyond the traditional assets of a utility and current watershed management practices may not be sufficient to cope with potential effects on aquatic ecosystems, water supply reliability, water quality, and coastal flood risk.

References

[1] EPA (2006). Excessive Heat Events Guidebook (PDF). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

[2] City of Keene and ICLEI (2007). Keene, New Hampshire — Adapting to Climate Change: Planning a Climate Resilient Community (PDF) . City of Keene, ICLEI.

[3] The City of New York (2011). PlaNYC Update April 2011 — A Greener, Greater New York (PDF) . The City of New York.

[4] USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA.

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