Kanto Plain cross-country finals preview
Published: October 11, 2012
Here’s a breakdown of which teams and individual runners stand the best chance of winning personal and collective glory at Saturday’s Kanto Plain Association of Secondary Schools cross-country finals at Tama Hills Recreation Center. Analysis provided by Bruce Carrick, longtime Pacific cross-country and track observer and gatekeeper of times and race information at athletic.net. Times also provided by athletic.net:
Overview
We should get a much clearer picture of the Pacific’s cross-country scene in the Kanto Plain Association of Secondary Schools finals Saturday morning at Tama Hills Recreation Center.
At the moment, the top 10 boys teams in the Pacific and Europe at 5,000 meters are, in order: Patch American, Yokota, Vilseck, Kadena, Ramstein, Kaiserslautern, Nile C. Kinnick, Lakenheath, Naples American and Seoul American.
For the girls, it is: Lakenheath, Patch American, Kadena, Kinnick, Kubasaki, Yokota, Naples American, Ramstein, International School of Brussels and Zurich International.
This ordering is very tentative and does not take into account actual head-to-head competition and the wide differences in courses. Further, there may be good international-school squads in Europe who have not reported any results, and here in the Pacific we know that none of the Kanto international schools have competed at 5,000 meters yet.
The head-to-head meeting of a dozen schools at the Kanto finals should reveal whether the Kinnick and Yokota boys and girls teams can can hold off the likes of St. Mary's and Seisen International, International School of the Sacred Heart and American School In Japan.
If they can, then we can have a bit more confidence in their lofty rankings. If they end up third, fourth or fifth in Kanto, then we need to rethink these rankings and the courses upon which Kinnick and Yokota set their fast times.
And with a view toward next month’s Far East meet, we can get a better read on the Kanto and Korea DODDs schools based on results of a meet they will not attend: the Asia-Pacific Invitational Oct. 19-20 on Guam. The only DODDs representative will be Guam High, but over 20 international schools from Kanto, Korea, and around the Pacific will compete. Then the speculations can begin. (Wouldn't it be better if all schools could meet together in one meet to crown a true champion? Cross country is probably the easiest sport there is to do this).
So let's take a closer look at the upcoming Kanto finals:
Teams
On the 2.1-mile (3,305-meter) girls course, Kinnick, ASIJ and Seisen are very closely matched in times and previous meetings; they finished in this order at last week's Kanto Invitational. ISSH is Kanto girls dual-meet champion, a testament to why competition is never left just to paper judging. Still, on paper the ISSH squad in tournament scoring looks to be the twin of Yokota, likely competing for fourth. Sixth place will be left to St. Maur International and Christian Academy Japan to squabble over. And Zama will be fending off Matthew C. Perry, Yokohama International, Robert D. Edgren and E.J. King.
The boys’ 2.9-mile (4,417-meter) course should see Kinnick, Yokota, ASIJ and St. Mary's in a toss-up based on earlier races (the order here reflects their finish at the Kanto Invitational last week). Fifth place will be left to St. Maur, YIS and Zama to fight for. CAJ, Edgren and Perry will fight not to be last.
Boys
Robert Beard burst onto the scene last year in a dramatic 90-second improvement over his sophomore season. Now in his senior year, he has been the season's steadiest, credited with three sub-15:40 runs on the course. His best mark, 15:26, puts him about 26th on the all-time Tama list. Beard was sixth last year at finals with a 16:02.8, and YIS's Daniel Buckley won it in 15:43.5.
On the other hand, St. Mary's senior Masanori Yoshida has been under 15:45 in each of the last three seasons. Yoshida has finished seventh, fourth and fourth in the previous three finals and now comes in ranked second; he was fourth at last year's Far East, just a few steps back from Beard.
On Oct. 4, four underclassmen challengers made big steps forward: Beard's sophomore teammate Aaron Russ (15:38), Zama's freshman Jerrell Hibler (15:41.7), ASIJ's sophomore Willem Thorbeck (15:44), and Yokota's junior Bryan Riley (15:46).
These six runners represent the high end of typical number of sub-15:50 runners for a season. Will we get more than that on Saturday? It is possible. The question for this year's leaders is, will Beard and Yoshida dip under 15:20, as winners typically do? Expect a tight race for the top 10, with not a few surprises.
Girls
Kinnick junior Carydaliz Fontanez and Yokota freshman Samantha Arnold are in a dead heat for league champion, twenty seconds ahead of the rest of the field. Behind Fontanez and Arnold, seven girls from five schools are in a tight pack just under 14:00 on the 3,305-meter course.
In historical perspective, the field is deeper going into the finals than the last four seasons including the finals. Nine girls have clocked under 14:00 and 29 under 15:00. Then next closest is 2008 in which the season ending totals were seven and 22.
Fontanez and Arnold are lodged around 24th on the all-time list, unlikely to be challenging a record. What makes this season unique and fascinating is the large number of schools who are represented at the top individually, and the tightness of team scoring for the top four squads.
Team depth
The first two runners on the contending teams will do a lot of jockeying, and assuming they all have a good day, they will not determine the team champion. That honor falls to the third, fourth and fifth runners. Their points will have the greatest variability, being at the densest part of the pack.
Out-on-a-limb: any team that can get their fifth runners in the top 20 this year will win. By contrast, in the 2010 girls race, Seisen and ASIJ combined for 10 of the top 12.
Here is a look at the runners who could place in the top 20 out of the typical field of 70 varsity runners (listed in order of times clocked this season).
Girls
Third Runner: Seisen (Theresa Kern), ASIJ (Mina McClure), Kinnick (Cassandra Burger), Yokota (Christine Madamba).
Fourth Runner: Seisen (Kaye Mathies) ASIJ (Hanna Rosenfeld), Kinnick (Kate Greathouse).
Fifth Runner: ASIJ (Louisa Conwell).
Kinnick, Yokota and Seisen are vulnerable here.
Boys
Third Runner: Kinnick (Ethan Russ), ASIJ (Evan Yukevich), Yokota (James Kennedy), St. Mary's (Taishi Misumi)
Fourth Runner: St. Mary's (James Parker), Yokota (Derek Hoopes).
Fifth Runner: St. Mary's (Taiki Mochizuki).
St. Mary's hopes are pinned on Parker and Mochizuki, and if Misumi has a good day, watch out.
