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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 196N 1187W 34 73   6(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 12 196N 1187W 50 29   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 196N 1187W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 200N 1195W 34 17  25(42)   4(46)   1(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 24 200N 1195W 50  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 200N 1195W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 202N 1201W 34  3  19(22)   7(29)   2(31)   2(33)   X(33)   1(34)
 36 202N 1201W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 202N 1201W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 202N 1206W 34  1  10(11)   7(18)   3(21)   2(23)   1(24)   1(25)
 48 202N 1206W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 202N 1206W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 200N 1210W 34  X   7( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   1(18)   1(19)   1(20)
 72 200N 1210W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 200N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 195N 1215W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 96 195N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 96 195N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 190N 1220W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
120 190N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
120 190N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     40      35      30      25      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC